Using Steamer to Target Keepers

Last year around this time I took a look at the Steamer600 Update projections to try to identify potential keepers that were currently undervalued or overlooked. As a refresher, the Steamer600 Update projections represent the current Steamer rest of season projections, but scaled to 600 PA/200 IP (SP)/ 65 IP (RP) for all players. I like to look at these projections periodically to get a sense of how Steamer is estimating true talent level regardless of playing time (due to injury, a bench role, or being in the minor leagues). I have taken those Steamer600 Update projections and applied ottoneu FGPTs scoring to find some interesting potential keepers.

Before I go any further, I thought it would make sense to highlight a few of the names I mentioned in last year’s article(these are the hits, there were many misses as well):

Alex Bregman– SS8 and 4.99 PPG projection per Steamer600 this time last year (a day or two after his callup to the Astros), has 5.29 PPG in 149 career games since then

Gary Sanchez– C12 and 4.59 PPG projection per Steamer600 last year (before his call up), and has a 6.86 PPG in 126 games since

Andrew Benintendi– OF41 and 5.08 PPG projection per Steamer600 last year (again, before his call up to MLB), and has a 4.86 PPG in 133 games since

And now, a look at some names Steamer600 likes more than I believe the ottoneu market does:

Willson Contreras (C6, 5.15 PPG)

Okay, I lied, the market probably likes the Cubs catcher at least as much, if not more, than this 6th catcher ranking. It was hard to find a catcher that Steamer has a surprising or optimistic projection for, so instead I just wanted to highlight how good Contreras has been through a little more than one year of major league experience. Double Ell (my nickname for him, it will catch on!) has a 5.09 PPG in 170 career games, a pretty remarkable feat for a young catcher at a position where it often takes a few seasons to really get comfortable with the bat.

Rhys Hoskins (1B12, 5.71 PPG)

Hoskins doesn’t have much left to prove in AAA, but Tommy Joseph wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline, so he may have to wait until September for his first taste of the big leagues. Steamer thinks Hoskins could be an elite Utility option in FGPts right away, and even though he’s just a 1B it’s rare to have a minor league player project this well.

Ryan McMahon (2B13, 5.19 PPG)

Here is the Rockies version of Hoskins, except with more favorable 2B and 3B eligibility. What’s crazy about McMahon’s Steamer projection isn’t the .337 wOBA, but the 88 wRC+ (similar to Utley/Drury/Schimpf), which suggests that Coors Field alone may prop him up as a viable MI option in the short term. Of course, if you think Steamer is too aggressive with their park factors, that knocks McMahon down a few pegs. For me, I think he’s worth speculating on as a high upside second baseman for next year.

Wilmer Flores (2B15, 5.10 PPG)

Can you be a post-hype player if there wasn’t much hype to begin with? That’s the question I have when thinking about Flores, who is only owned in 60% of ottoneu leagues ($2.20 average salary) despite a projection that implies he would be a quality middle infield option if given regular playing time. He’s been getting that playing time lately with the Mets (playing 1B/2B/3B), and has put up a .334 wOBA this season after a .336 wOBA in ’16. I’m not sure he’s anything more than a utility infielder for the Mets next season, but there’s upside here if he finds himself with a full time job in NY (or elsewhere).

Trea Turner (SS4, 5.92 PPG)

Turner had a lot of hype going into this season after a great second half last year, but struggled at the plate and then hurt his wrist. That might sound like a player you should avoid, but I think this might be the best/last time to buy Trea as an asset for the future. Even including his struggles this year, Turner owns a 6.96 PPG in 141 games since the start of 2016 (his SB efficiency and early spot in the lineup boost his PPG), so this projection actually undersells what he has done lately.

Nick Castellanos (3B13, 5.37 PPG)

The young Tigers 3B hasn’t hit as well this year (.322 wOBA) as he did last year (.350 wOBA), but according to xStats his xwOBA is .356 this year, suggesting he’s been unlucky given his batted ball profile.

Matt Adams (OF38, 5.52 PPG)

The move to Atlanta has done wonders for Adams’ ottoneu outlook. Armed with consistent playing time (and OF eligibility), the 28 year old slugger has a .359 wOBA in 60 games with the Braves, and now looks like a potential 4th OF in ottoneu.

Oswaldo Arcia (OF64, 5.18 PPG)

I have been an Arcia owner in ottoneu the past few seasons, and now that I’ve divested myself of all shares he’s decided to make a mockery of AAA. Yes, the PCL stats (.342 ISO, .468 wOBA) need to be taken with a grain of salt, but Steamer is projecting that Arcia could be a valuable bench/platoon OF in ottoneu, and he’s currently owned in just 3.8% of ottoneu leagues. I don’t know if he will get another chance in the majors, and I’m not sure he’ll succeed even if he does, but he at least offers some upside.

Alex Meyer (SP29, 4.40 PIP)

With Meyer, and the SP next on this list, the key is an aspect of pitching that is probably overemphasized in FGPts, and that is strikeouts. Any pitcher that can limit hits below 1.0 hits per nine innings gets a boost in scoring compared to SABR points/FIP due to the +7.4 points per inning and -2.6 points per hit allowed in FGPts, and the pitchers best able to do that are the ones that limit contact. That gives high strikeout pitchers like Meyer a boost in value, even with the command issues the young Angels hurler experiences (5.61 BB/9 this year, 5.85 BB/9 in his career). Meyer is currently on the shelf with a shoulder injury, which is always scary, but probably represents a cheap option if you’re looking for MLB upside.

Dinelson Lamet (SP38, 4.20 PIP)

Lamet doesn’t project as well as Meyer does, but he’s also healthy and pitching reasonably well in San Diego, and at 25 he’s two years younger than Meyer. Lamet has been pitching much better than his ERA of 5.62 suggests, with a 4.33 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP. I don’t think he’s ever going to be an ace, but if you’re looking for innings to fill the rest of the year and Lamet is available (under 74% owned in ottoneu), he makes for a good short term and long term solution.