The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Right now, there’s an absolute dearth of starting pitching available on the waiver wire. I’ve scraped the bottom of the barrel for these nine under-rostered pitchers — four starters and five relievers.
I covered Colin Rea the last time I ran this column and I still think he’s one of the more interesting starting pitchers out there. The wide pitch mix, arm angle change, and an improved fastball all make him a pretty interesting pick up.
Tyler Anderson isn’t flashy or fancy but he’s a veteran starter with one elite pitch, his changeup. When that pitch is working for him, he can have stretches like this where he’s able to limit hard contact and generate just enough swings and misses. He probably won’t reach the ceiling of his breakout season with the Dodgers back in 2022, but he’s a solid enough starter that can be counted on in the right matchups.
Chad Patrick has filled in capably for the Brewers as they work through all their early season injuries. He’s survived by inducing a ton of weak contact in the air, which has served him well so far, but it’s also the same reasony why his xFIP is 4.42, more than a run higher than his ERA. Still, over his last three starts, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is a very good 4.67 and he’s improved as he’s adjusted to pitching in the big leagues for the first time.
Chris Paddack started off the season with two absolute stinkers, allowing 13 runs in 7.1 innings with more walks than strikeouts. In his six starts since then, he’s allowed just 10 runs in 32.1 innings with a 2.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His last start against the Giants was his best of the year; he pitched into the eighth inning, allowing just three hits while striking out six. He’s always been a bit home run prone and he’s been pretty lucky in that regard during this stretch. Still, it seems like he has his signature fastball-changeup combo working for him right now.
The Blue Jays have quietly put together one of the best relief corps in baseball and that’s largely thanks to breakout seasons from guys like Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty. Among all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings this season, Little leads all of baseball in swinging strike rate. His sinker has been devastating thanks to some mechanical deception and a ton of drop on the pitch. Fluharty might be even more interesting. As a lefty, he’s yet to allow a hit to a right-handed batter this year. Like Little, he’s got some mechanical deception aiding him and a hard cutter that has given right-handed batters fits when it’s located on the inside half of the plate. Little is a little higher on Toronto’s bullpen pecking order, but Fluharty should be seeing some high leverage work soon too.
Danny Coulombe hasn’t allowed a run in almost a full calendar year. Of course, a lot of his 2024 season was spent on the IL, but he’s now run his scoreless streak to 27 games and 26.1 innings. It took a while for the Twins to start giving him high leverage work but he’s finally working the seventh and eighth innings regularly.
The Brewers bullpen has been a bit of a work-in-progress this year after they moved on from their closer Devin Williams in the offseason. Trevor Megill has a tight hold on the ninth inning, but Nick Mears has worked his way into the high leverage mix in the seventh and eighth innings.
Ryan Borucki isn’t seeing that much high leverage work yet, but the guys in front of him in the Pirates bullpen aren’t all that impressive. The biggest difference for him this year are a new splitter and sweeper that are both returning above average whiff rates. Those two pitches have pushed his Stuff+ from merely average up to 109 on the season.
It’s been about a month since I told you that you should play Ottoneu’s Six Picks. And you should. In fact, if you haven’t picked your team for today, go do that now. I’ll still be here when you get back.
Welcome back! Now that you are ready to read, I’ll let you know that today’s article isn’t really about Six Picks. I mean, it is, on the surface. The data is Six Picks data and we are going to talk a bit about Six Picks to explain the data. But what the article is really about is what Six Picks can tell us about player values outside Six Picks.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:
Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.
The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
Now that we’ve reached May, I’m starting to use in-season data to calculate opponent strength.
The Athletics have a beast of a schedule next week; not only are they playing two of the hottest offenses in baseball, they’re playing in their tiny bandbox in Sacramento. Those games should be extremely high scoring affairs. The Padres also have to face the Yankees next week, in New York to boot, but San Diego then gets to travel to Colorado. The Diamondbacks just barely avoid the double red tags, but I’d still avoid their starters against the Mets and Dodgers.
No team has a double green week, but the Twins get close with series against the struggling Orioles and the Giants at home.
Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:
Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.
The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Hopefully, these six under-rostered pitchers — three starters and three relievers — can help.
Chad covered Ryan Gusto in his Hot Right Now column yesterday. I mostly agree with his assessment:
“So yes, he has looked good so far. But with only 22.2 IP so far this year, I am more inclined to bet on his track record than his early performance with Houston. Double his walks, double his HR, and how are you feeling? There’s nothing wrong with riding the hot streak. That could both net you some short-term gains and give you time to see if that control and HR suppression are legit. But there are other SP out there I am more interested in right now.”
One thing I’d like to add is that Stuff+ really likes Gusto. All three of his fastballs are above league average by that metric and so is his slider. Stuff+ isn’t as enamored with his changeup but that pitch is returning a 37.5% whiff rate which is above average for the pitch type. Sure, the minor league track record isn’t there, but it’s possible Gusto has taken a pretty significant step forward in his development.
I do need to advise some caution because of the contact quality issues Chad mentioned and also because the Astros will likely activate Lance McCullers Jr. from the IL within a few weeks and possibly Spencer Arrighetti a few more weeks after that. It’s very likely Gusto will be relegated to the bullpen once Houston’s starting rotation gets a little more healthy. So, yes, ride the hot hand while you can, but don’t expect Gusto to be a long-term solution for your pitching staff.
I recommended Jose Quintana in my last Ottoneu Drip and I’m honestly shocked he hasn’t been rostered more. All he’s done since that write up is make three fantastic starts, allowing just three runs total. His strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t great and it seems like he’s relying on a lot of guile to get by, but the results speak for themselves.
The injury to Justin Steele forced the Cubs to add Colin Rea to their starting rotation a few weeks ago. Rea muddled through the last two years as an innings eating member of the Brewers rotation, but he has made three solid starts for the Cubs against some really impressive opponents. Against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies, he’s allowed just two runs in 13.1 innings while striking out 17. That’s enough for me to take notice.
The biggest difference is a four-seam that he’s throwing more than half the time at the expense of his sinker. His repertoire is still deep — six pitches strong — but he’s really emphasized the heater. He’s throwing it about a tick harder than last year with a little more rise and a little more cut and it’s returning a 25% whiff rate and a .334 xwOBA, both above average marks for a four-seamer. He’s also dropped his arm angle by about five degrees which has had a positive effect on the horizontal movement of all of his pitches. The wide pitch mix, arm angle change, and an improved fastball makes him a pretty interesting pick up, though I might wait to see how he does in a few more starts before rushing out to add him.
Chad also covered Will Vest in his article yesterday and I don’t really have much more to add. If you’re speculating on saves in Detroit’s bullpen, Vest is as good an investment as any other high leverage option in that ‘pen.
Reed Garrett had a mini-little breakout last summer before burning out in August. He’s still making high-leverage appearances for the Mets this year and he’s been pretty good. The strikeout rate isn’t as lofty as it was last year, but his walk rate is down and he’s only allowed a single unearned run.
Shelby Miller was finally healthy last year but his stint in Detroit’s bullpen of death could have gone better. He latched on with the Diamondbacks this year and is throwing a little harder and added a sweeper to his repertoire. He, too, has only allowed a single unearned run in 11 appearances for the Snakes and he’s already beginning to work some high leverage opportunities for them.
The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
