Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves are entering a particularly tough stretch of their schedule this weekend; they’re about to play 14 games in 13 days without an off day due to a doubleheader against the Mets next weekend. They’re getting Max Fried back from the IL today but they’ll likely need to call up a spot starter next weekend. Luckily both of their matchups next week look pretty easy on paper.
• The Mets have the benefit of an off day before that extra long weekend series against the Braves but both of their matchups look particularly tough next week. They’re also needing to restock their rotation after the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline.
• The Yankees and Rangers both have some pretty easy matchups next week, though they’ll all come on the road. New York travels to Chicago and Miami while Texas will play in both of the expansive ballparks in the Bay Area. The Red Sox host the Royals and the Tigers next week which both look like easier matchups too, though Kansas City has been playing particularly well recently.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Gerrit Cole
• Spencer Strider
• Pablo López
• Dylan Cease
• Julio Urías
• Zach Eflin
• Freddy Peralta
• Sonny Gray
• Dane Dunning
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Braxton Garrett
• Kutter Crawford

With the MLB trade deadline behind us and the dust still settling, it can be a bit tricky to sort out all the implications for every player moved in a trade this week. It becomes all the more difficult for relievers — both where they fit in the bullpen hierarchy on their new team and how their old team will handle the pecking order. This edition of the Ottonue Relief Pitcher Drip will be devoted to figuring some of those situations while also recommending some under-rostered pitchers who might find themselves in high leverage roles now.

The White Sox were one of the most aggressive sellers this season, trading away six members of their pitching staff including nearly every reliever who had earned high leverage work this year. Gone are Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo López, Keynan Middleton, and Joe Kelly. That means Gregory Santos is the most likely candidate to pick up save opportunities with Aaron Bummer a possibility as well. I covered Santos the last time this column ran in mid-July and his outlook hasn’t changed much since then. He’s still striking out a decent number of batters and his walk rate is still a pristine 5.0%.

The Royals shipped their closer Scott Barlow off to San Diego at the deadline which means Carlos Hernández will likely step in to handle the ninth inning duties. A failed starter with a hard, riding fastball and a nasty slider, he’s managed to hone the command issues that plagued him in longer outings. He’s cut his walk rate more than four points to just 7.4% this year while also pushing his strikeout rate north of 30%. That’s a definite recipe for success. Beyond Hernández, there really isn’t anyone else in Kansas City’s bullpen worth targeting.

In one of the bigger surprises this week, the Mariners traded their closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks. Seattle already had their closer of the future Andrés Muñoz working the eighth inning ahead of Sewald which makes him the obvious candidate to work the ninth inning now. Matt Brash is almost universally rostered in Ottoneu thanks to his outrageous stuff so the overlooked high leverage reliever in Seattle’s bullpen is almost certainly Justin Topa. He had struggled with a laundry list of injuries with the Brewers, accumulating just 17 appearances across his first three seasons in the big leagues. Finally healthy, he’s been a solid option in high leverage situations for the M’s this year. His sinker-slider combo doesn’t produce a ton of strikeouts but he limits walks and keeps the ball on the ground which is a profile that plays well in Ottoneu.

Joe Kelly isn’t gaining an opportunity to earn more high leverage work because relievers ahead of him on the depth chart were traded away. Instead, he was the guy traded away. He’s joining a Dodgers bullpen that’s had plenty of issues finding consistent performers this year. It isn’t immediately clear where he lands in the pecking order since he’s only appeared in a single game for Los Angeles, coming in during the sixth inning after Caleb Ferguson ran into trouble. His brand of effective wildness is well known by now, though his strikeout rate is now at a career-high 32.3%.

The Cardinals were the other big sellers at the deadline, trading away two relievers from their bullpen. With Ryan Helsley sidelined indefinitely and Jordan Hicks now in Toronto, the obvious choice to work the ninth inning should have been Giovanny Gallegos. Instead, the man who received the first save opportunity on Sunday was JoJo Romero who also worked the ninth inning in a non-save situation yesterday. This is a situation that definitely bears monitoring. Gallegos has been receiving high leverage work in the Cardinals bullpen for four years now so it’s possible they’re trying out different options in the ninth inning to evaluate what they have to work with moving forward. Romero was a highly regarded prospect in the Phillies organization at one point. Both his slider and changeup have whiff rates over 40%, giving him two plus weapons in his arsenal.

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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We have reached the MLB trade deadline which means we are just 30 days out from the Ottoneu trade deadline. I would say that means it is time to decide if you are buying or selling, but you should have done that already. I would say it is time to start making trades, but you have probably done that, as well. So here are the ___ things I am trying to do this month, ahead of the deadline.

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Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The trade deadline is on Tuesday next week which means some of these rotations might look very different by Wednesday. Keep an eye on the probable matchups early in the week while players get moved around; the recommendations I made above assume that everyone sticks with their original team which obviously won’t happen. When in doubt, use the matchup rating for the series to determine whether or not to start a pitcher on his new team if they’re traded midweek. The rotations for each team should be settled by the weekend which means next week’s recommendations should be a bit more straightforward.
• The impending returns of Hyun Jin Ryu, Max Fried, Nestor Cortes, and José Urquidy will also shake up the rotations on their respective teams. Generally, I recommend waiting a start or two before inserting a starter back into your lineup after he returns from a major injury like these four are.
• As far as the actual schedules go, it looks like the Rangers and Mets both get a pair of easier matchups next week. Texas plays at home against two weaker offenses while the Mets travel to two pitcher friendly ballparks.
• The Braves, Padres, and Reds get a tough slate of opponents next week. Cincinnati and Atlanta both travel to Chicago to face the red hot Cubs and they’ve got tough home matchups in their other series next week too. San Diego travels to Colorado to start next week and then returns home to face the Dodgers over the weekend.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Zac Gallen
• Framber Valdez
• Pablo López
• George Kirby
• Corbin Burnes
• Freddy Peralta
• Alex Cobb
• Jon Gray
• Johan Oviedo
• Brayan Bello
• Taijuan Walker
• Ranger Suárez
• Marcus Stroman
• José Quintana

We’re still a month from the Ottoneu trade deadline, but trades aren’t the only way for rebuilders to, well, rebuild. There are hundreds of prospects across baseball and only a small handful are regularly rostered in Ottoneu leagues, which means you can often find interesting names sitting out there as free agents. Today I am going to look at some prospects I like who are available in at least half of Ottoneu leagues.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ottoneu teams get a whole extra month to complete trades after the official MLB trade deadline which means players get a little longer to evaluate their rosters before really committing to going for a championship or not. If you haven’t been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to preparing to sell. I even detailed the thought process behind a huge blockbuster trade. For rebuilding teams, this is still one of the most exciting periods of the season, not just because of the trade activity, but because of the waiver wire activity too.

On July 13, an owner in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams cut Mike Trout from his roster. That was about a week after Trout was placed on the IL with a fractured hamate bone in his hand, sidelining him for 4-8 weeks. That set off a chain reaction of moves that I’d like to discuss today.

Trout’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for this Ottoneu player; his team was in seventh place, well out of contention and stuck looking towards the future. I’m sure Trout would have been the centerpiece of a big trade at some point this summer as he looked to recoup any value from the superstar to bolster his roster for the years to come. Instead, he looked at the calculus of Trout’s injury timeline and the upcoming trade deadline and decided to simply cut his losses. Trout’s salary was $70 and no one claimed him on waivers at that price. An auction for him was started a day after he became a free agent and he wound up getting added for $55 by the fifth place team with an outside shot at making a run down the stretch. If Trout returns on the early end of his timeline, he’ll likely give that roster a boost right when it would be needed most.

Adding a $55 player during the draft is tough enough to fit into the $400 budget Ottoneu teams are afforded; it’s even tougher during the season. The owner who picked up Trout wound up cutting Carlos Correa ($40), Seiya Suzuki ($27), and Freddy Peralta ($16). This was when my eyes lit up. I wasn’t about to try and fit Trout onto my roster but all three of those cuts were interesting at the right price. Unfortunately, I did something silly; I mistakenly thought Peralta would go unclaimed on waivers and I’d be able to start an auction for him in a few days. I figured his struggles early this season would have driven down his value below his $16 price tag and I’d be able to win an auction at less than that salary. Instead, three other teams claimed him with the team that originally rostered Trout winning the claim.

Auctions were started for Correa and Suzuki pretty quickly and I entered my maximum bids for each of them. I had a bit of cap space and a handful of higher priced players I could cut to create some more. But I wasn’t looking to add either of those players to help my team this year, I wanted them at a reasonable price to keep for next year. That certainly affected the amount I was willing to bid on them. I bid $28 for Carlos Correa, second behind the winning team bid of $33. Correa’s struggles and questionable health this year don’t necessarily make him a slam dunk keeper for next year and $30 was where I drew the line. It was the same story for Suzuki; I bid $16 because of health and performance concerns and the winning bid was $22. The team who won Suzuki is currently in fourth place and could afford to allocate a few more resources in the hopes that Suzuki could contribute to his club this year.

That second round of auctions set off another domino effect and Shane Bieber ($36) and Teoscar Hernández ($21) were suddenly on the waiver wire as cuts. I liked both of these guys too, even though Bieber was on the IL with an elbow issue. If he was able to avoid surgery, he could be a nice piece for next year at the right salary. Auctions were started for both players and I wound up winning both for $20 and $14, respectively.

The owner who originally cut Trout came out of all this with Peralta and Correa on his roster. That’s not a bad swap and it looks even better considering he’s saving about $9 on Correa’s salary if he chooses to keep him for next season. I’m sure this player knew that simply cutting Trout instead of hoping for a desperate trade in late August might create this kind of domino effect. He didn’t know which players would fall into his lap, but clearing Trout’s salary and getting a couple of potential keepers is a nice consolation.

For my part, I would have preferred to roster any of the guys from that first round of cuts. I do like my consolation prize in Bieber and Hernández, however. I originally rostered the latter at the start of the season and I like his value much better with a $16 salary rather than the $21 I had him at before. And $20 for Bieber could be a nice bargain if he can get past this elbow issue and come back next year healthy and fresh. This little exercise demonstrates why keeping some open salary cap to add players like this during the season is so important. Plenty of bargains can be found on the waiver wire as teams navigate the long season, and every once in a while, a team will cut a high priced player like Trout and set off a long chain reaction that shakes up multiple rosters.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Read the rest of this entry »