The Ottoneu Players I Roster Most

Last year, I shared the 12 players I had on most of my rosters, broken into types of players. This year, I want to dive into the five players I have on more than half my Ottoneu rosters.

I have six Ottoneu teams this year – three 4×4 leagues, one season-long FanGraphs Points League, one season-long SABR Points league, and one head-to-head FanGraphs Points league. Across those leagues, I have 245 roster spots and 167 unique players. There is no player on all six of my rosters, or even five of the six, but there are five players on four of my rosters.

Josh Bell

Bell struggled in 2020 and had a slow start to 2021 and it’s like people just forgot that this guy was a certified stud first baseman, let alone a certified stud first baseman who has outfield eligibility in Ottoneu. Through April 27 of last season, Bell had a wRC+ of 11. That is bad. After that date it was 129. Dude mashed.

It’s not hard to understand why he mashed. He doesn’t strike out much – his 17.8% K% was 39th best of 132 qualified hitters last year. He was one of only 12 players to combine 25+ HR with a K% under 18%. He walks – his 11.4% walk rate was 25th among those 132 qualified hitters. He hits the ball very hard. While Statcast sliders are imperfect, this image certainly tells a story.

One of the imperfections of those sliders is that hard hit and barrel rates are measured per batted ball event. Because Bell keeps his strikeouts in check, he actually slightly outperforms those percentiles on a per plate appearance basis.

Bell is not only one of the players on four of my Ottoneu rosters, he is the only player on a total of eight of my 13 rosters, including those outside Ottoneu. The only downside for Bell is that I doubt he plays OF much, if at all this year. I’ll have him plugged into my OF this year and will have no issue moving him to 1B next year.

Frankie Montas

I included Montas in my bold predictions yesterday, pointing out that he could be the league leader in total points in Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues by sustaining his performance from late last season. Today, let’s talk a bit about how he has that success.

Among 129 pitchers who threw 100+ innings last year, he was 13th in swinging-strike rate, at 13.7%. Of his four-pitch mix, it’s his splitter that is most effective at getting those whiffs, with a 26.9% swinging-strike rate. It’s as good a splitter as exists in the game today. Among splitters used in 50+ PA last year, Montas’s was the 4th best by wOBA against, 3rd best by xwOBA against. It is the best in baseball by Whiff% (swings and misses/total swings) at 51.4%. His was the only splitter to crack that 50% threshold.

It’s probably not a surprise that after a rough 2020, he went back to using that splitter more. He used it 18% of the time in 2019, dropped to 13% in 2020, and then threw it a career-high 22% of the time in 2022. Is there room for him to improve by using the splitter even more? Maybe, but it is risky.

The splitter works best when batters swing. The called strike rate on it is low (just 6.1%) and it is in the zone only 24.2% of the time. Using it more could result in more whiffs, but could also make it more predictable and easier to lay off. In addition, the splitter causes some challenges, as some nights he seems to just not be feeling it. It’s not an easy pitch to manage, and when it is off, he can get hit hard. But those blow-ups are becoming less frequent.

As long as he has that splitter, he’ll be an ace. If he has another gear with that splitter, he could be a Cy Young candidate. Either way, he’ll be locked into a starting spot everywhere I have him.

Mitch Keller

This story is completely different from the ones above. It doesn’t take an expert to look at Keller’s history to know I am not about to tell you how brilliant he was last year. But the price on Keller has been low and there are reasons to be optimistic.

His pedigree is a big part of this. His atrocious MLB line (170.1 IP with a 6.02 ERA) has people forgetting that this guy was a top prospect with impressive minor league numbers, including gaudy strikeout totals. Development isn’t linear and the fact that the guy hasn’t found success in MLB yet doesn’t mean he won’t.

But given those MLB numbers, I might take a flyer but I wouldn’t be investing so heavily without a more immediate reason to believe. Enter Spring Training. In 12.1 IP, Keller has 12 K and just 3 walks, and has yet to allow a HR. Per Baseball-Reference, his opposition has been close to Triple-A quality, so that alone isn’t enough to assume he turned a corner.

Those results aren’t the only sign though. Keller’s four-seamer average 93.8 mph in 2021. This Spring he’s over 97 mph. That’s no joke. And it’s a reason to believe that maybe, just maybe, this year can be different.

The nice thing is, the cost was low and – unlike Bell and Montas – I am not counting on Keller. If he comes out throwing hard, piling up strikeouts, and living up to his potential, I have a low price SP locked into my rotation, even if he isn’t an every-start guy. If he struggles, I cut him and move on.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성

A bit like Keller’s, Kim’s case isn’t about how great he was last year. Again, it’s a case built on pedigree, a strong Spring, and reason to believe he can turn the corner. Kim moved to MLB from the KBO with a strong reputation and expectations he could be an impact bat. That didn’t happen last year but the transition from leagues overseas can be a challenge. After a full season in MLB, now isn’t a bad time to make a bet on that pedigree.

In Spring Training, he has posted a 1.072 OPS with just 6 K and 5 BB in 36 PA. He hasn’t faced the toughest pitching (roughly Double-A quality), but still positive to see him having some success with the bat.

On top of that, the Fernando Tatis Jr. injury, while awful for the Padres and for baseball, creates a bit more space for a guy who was squeezed out of playing time last year. In his rookie season, Kim managed only 298 PA spread over 117 games. With Tatis locked in at SS, Manny Machado holding down 3B, and Jake Cronenworth establishing himself at 2B, there was just no room for Kim to get regular playing time. He may get squeezed out again if CJ Abrams ends up the starting SS in Tatis’s absence, but there is at least a shot he’ll get regular at-bats and a chance to establish himself.

Julian Merryweather

Merryweather got off to a brilliant start last April, but lasted only 4.1 innings before getting hurt. When he came back in September, he struggled badly.

So why is he on so many of my rosters now? I like finding cheap RP with upside and working through them in Ottoneu. Ideally, I want to find guys with the potential for elite strikeout rates, a path towards high-leverage innings, and a quick timeline to knowing if holding or cutting is the right decision. Merryweather checks all the boxes.

If he is healthy, he could easily have among the best K-rates in baseball. If he is striking out players at that rate, the Jays could easily install him in the 7th or 8th inning. And if he is not healthy, I’ll know almost immediately and be able to move onto the next option.