Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: March 28–April 7

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

March 28–April 7
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Series 3 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI COL (133) NYY (67) @ATL (0) Zac Gallen (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2), Brandon Pfaadt (vCOL) Tommy Henry (vCOL) Brandon Pfaadt (@ATL) Tommy Henry (@ATL), Ryne Nelson (x2)
ATL @PHI (60) @CHW (124) ARI (87) Spencer Strider (x2), Max Fried (x2), Chris Sale (x2), Charlie Morton (x2) Reynaldo López
BAL LAA (82) KCR (127) @PIT (140) Corbin Burnes (x2), Grayson Rodriguez (x2) Dean Kremer (x2) Tyler Wells (x2), Cole Irvin
BOS @SEA (124) @OAK (191) @LAA (44) Brayan Bello (x2), Nick Pivetta (x2) Kutter Crawford (x2), Garrett Whitlock (x2), Tanner Houck (x2)
CHC @TEX (49) COL (118) LAD (42) Shota Imanaga (vCOL), Justin Steele (vCOL) Justin Steele (@TEX) Shota Imanaga (vLAD), Javier Assad Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jordan Wicks (x2)
CHW DET (120) ATL (4) @KCR (140) Garrett Crochet (x2), Erick Fedde 페디 (x2) Michael Soroka (x2), Chris Flexen 플렉센 (x2), Nick Nastini (x2)
CIN WSN (124) @PHI (60) NYM (62) Hunter Greene (x2) Frankie Montas (x2), Nick Martinez (x2) Andrew Abbott (x2), Graham Ashcraft
CLE @OAK (191) @SEA (124) @MIN (113) Shane Bieber (x2), Tanner Bibee (x2) Logan Allen (x2), Carlos Carrasco (@OAK), Triston McKenzie (x2) Carlos Carrasco (@MIN)
COL @ARI (102) @CHC (100) TBR (73) Kyle Freeland (x2) Cal Quantrill (x2), Austin Gomber (x2), Ryan Feltner (x2), Dakota Hudson (x2)
DET @CHW (124) @NYM (102) OAK (189) Tarik Skubal (x2), Kenta Maeda (x2), Jack Flaherty (x2) Casey Mize (x2), Reese Olson
HOU NYY (35) TOR (76) @TEX (49) Framber Valdez (x2) Cristian Javier (x2), Hunter Brown (x2) J.P. France (x2), Ronel Blanco (x2)
KCR MIN (131) @BAL (95) CHW (180) Cole Ragans (x2) Seth Lugo (x2), Brady Singer (x2), Michael Wacha (x2) Alec Marsh (x2)
LAA @BAL (95) @MIA (167) BOS (27) Reid Detmers (x2), Patrick Sandoval (@MIA) Patrick Sandoval (@BAL), Griffin Canning (x2) Tyler Anderson Chase Silseth (x2)
LAD STL (44) SFG (120) @CHC (100) Tyler Glasnow (x2), Bobby Miller (x2), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (x2) James Paxton (x2) Gavin Stone (x2)
MIA PIT (153) LAA (95) @STL (89) Jesús Luzardo (x2) A.J. Puk (x2) Ryan Weathers (x2), Trevor Rogers (x2), Max Meyer (x2)
MIL @NYM (102) MIN (89) SEA (111) Freddy Peralta (x2) DL Hall (x2) Colin Rea (x2), Jakob Junis (x2)
MIN @KCR (140) @MIL (102) CLE (149) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan (x2), Bailey Ober (x2) Chris Paddack, Louie Varland
NYM MIL (124) DET (155) @CIN (27) Jose Quintana (x2), Sean Manaea (vDET) Luis Severino (x2), Tylor Megill (x2), Sean Manaea (@CIN), Adrian Houser
NYY @HOU (31) @ARI (102) TOR (76) Nestor Cortes (x2), Carlos Rodón (x2), Marcus Stroman (x2) Clarke Schmidt (x2), Luis Gil (x2)
OAK CLE (169) BOS (80) @DET (175) JP Sears (x2) Alex Wood (x2), Ross Stripling (x2), Paul Blackburn (x2), Joe Boyle (x2)
PHI ATL (11) CIN (38) @WSN (140) Zack Wheeler (x2), Aaron Nola (@WSN) Aaron Nola (vATL), Ranger Suarez (@WSN), Cristopher Sánchez (@WSN) Ranger Suárez (vATL), Cristopher Sánchez (vCIN) Spencer Turnbull
PIT @MIA (167) @WSN (140) BAL (95) Mitch Keller (x2) Jared Jones (@MIA) Martín Pérez (x2), Jared Jones (vBAL) Bailey Falter (x2), Marco Gonzales (x2)
SDP SFG (149) STL (73) @SFG (175) Yu Darvish (x2), Joe Musgrove (x2), Dylan Cease (x2), Michael King (x2) Matt Waldron (x2)
SEA BOS (49) CLE (138) @MIL (102) Luis Castillo (x2), George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryce Miller (x2) Emerson Hancock (x2)
SFG @SDP (144) @LAD (13) SDP (171) Logan Webb (@SDP) Logan Webb (@LAD), Jordan Hicks (x2) Kyle Harrison (x2) Mason Black (x2)
STL @LAD (13) @SDP (144) MIA (160) Lance Lynn (vMIA), Steven Matz (vMIA) Miles Mikolas (x2), Zack Thompson (x2), Lance Lynn (@LAD), Steven Matz (@LAD), Kyle Gibson (x2)
TBR TOR (107) TEX (75) @COL (82) Zach Eflin (x2) Aaron Civale (x2) Zack Littell (x2) Tyler Alexander (x2), Ryan Pepiot (x2)
TEX CHC (89) @TBR (124) HOU (36) Nathan Eovaldi (x2) Jon Gray (x2), Andrew Heaney (x2), Dane Dunning (x2) Cody Bradford
TOR @TBR (124) @HOU (31) @NYY (13) José Berríos (x2), Chris Bassitt (x2), Yusei Kikuchi (x2), Kevin Gausman (x2) Bowden Francis (x2)
WSN @CIN (27) PIT (109) PHI (64) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Josiah Gray (x2), Patrick Corbin (x2), Jake Irvin (x2), Trevor Williams

A few general schedule notes:

  • The first week in the Ottoneu season runs from March 20 through April 7 (including the two games in Korea). If your head-to-head league has a games started cap, you’ll have four extra days of games to juggle with a cap that isn’t proportionally bigger. And if you started any of the four starters from those games in Korea, you’re already down a start. Make sure you’re really keeping track of the best matchups and plan out your starters accordingly.
  • Most teams have either one or two off days over these first 11 days of the season. The Twins and Brewers have three off days which should give their starters an extra bit of rest.
  • I think JP Sears has a particularly nice pair of matchups to start the season. He’s had a great spring training and he’s lined up to face the Guardians at home and then the Tigers in Detroit. He’s an under-the-radar starter who could get off to a quick start this season.
  • The Astros have a particularly tough schedule to start the season with series against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rangers lined up. You could start Framber Valdez since he feels pretty matchup proof, but I’d fade Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown.

Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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2 months ago

Thank you so much. These are invaluable for in season decision making