Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Ottoneu playoffs begin for most head-to-head leagues next week.
• The Blue Jays and White Sox both have a pair of easier matchups next week. That’s great news for Toronto’s starters who have had a bunch of tougher matchups in the recent weeks. Dylan Cease is really the only starter who really benefits from Chicago’s scheduled series against the Royals and Tigers; the rest of their rotation is pretty flawed and would be risky starts no matter who the opponent is.
• The Orioles and Padres both have tough matchups next week. Baltimore is on the road to face the Angels and Red Sox — both teams are extremely difficult to face in their home stadiums — while San Diego faces the red hot Phillies and Astros. Be weary of the Marlins schedule too; they host the Dodgers before traveling to Philadelphia next weekend.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Gerrit Cole
• Corbin Burnes
• Clayton Kershaw
• Logan Webb
• Pablo López
• Justin Steele
• Zach Eflin
• José Berríos
• Cole Ragans
• Merrill Kelly

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Keeping track of the machinations of 30 major league bullpens is pretty tricky. In standard leagues, it’s hard enough trying to discern which relievers are earning save opportunities, especially since more and more teams are using a committee approach in the ninth inning. In Ottoneu, with both saves and holds earning points, that search for high leverage relievers becomes even more of a challenge. There are plenty of resources out there — the Roster Resource Closer Depth Chart is one of my favorites — but even the most vigilant fantasy player can’t keep track of everything going on across the majors.

Today, I’m going to focus on four teams who have had a recent bullpen shakeup (either due to the trade deadline or injury) where there are new opportunities for high leverage work. The relievers listed below are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues.

Félix Bautista’s elbow injury has opened up new high leverage opportunities in Baltimore’s bullpen. Yannier Cano should receive the bulk of the ninth inning duties and has already earned a save and a loss. Behind him, Danny Coulombe and DL Hall will probably be called on in the seventh and eighth innings. The former was just activated off the IL last week and had been working in high leverage opportunities for most of the season prior to that. Hall might be the pitcher with the highest upside in Baltimore’s bullpen. He was called up when Bautista hit the IL and his velocity was up nearly four ticks from where it was back in April when he had a brief stint in the majors. He’s got the prospect pedigree and a deep repertoire to thrive in short stints out of the bullpen; the only thing you’ll need to keep an eye on is his command.

Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr. have the eighth and ninth innings locked down in the Cubs bullpen but Michael Fulmer’s elbow injury has opened up some opportunities behind those two. Julian Merryweather looks like he’ll be the main beneficiary. It looked like he had broken out way back in April of 2021 but an oblique strain curtailed that season. He struggled through last season in Toronto and made his way to the Cubs this year. Since the beginning of July, he’s collected 10 holds while racking up 32 strikeouts in 23.1 innings (a 32.7% strikeout rate). More importantly, his fastball velocity has ticked up as the season has progressed and he’s now averaging over 98 mph like he was two years ago during his brief breakout.

When the Mariners traded away Paul Sewald at the trade deadline, it opened up the ninth inning for Andrés Muñoz to take the reins as closer and allowed a number of other relievers to begin earning high leverage work in the seventh and eighth innings. Justin Topa had been receiving a lot of those opportunities early in the season and he’s been relied on even further. He’s been a frequent recommendation in this column this year and yet he’s rostered in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues. He’s allowed just a single unearned run in August — a Manfred man in an extra innings game — and just three runs total since the beginning of July. The other relievers in Seattle’s bullpen earning new high leverage innings are Gabe Speier and Tayler Saucedo. The former is a lefty groundball specialist who has collected five holds in August while the latter actually earned some brief ninth inning work when the M’s were trying to limit Muñoz’s and Matt Brash’s workload.

The Rays have had trouble all season long building a bridge to Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks in the eighth and ninth innings. Right now, it looks like some combination of Colin Poche, Robert Stephenson, and Andrew Kittredge are seeing the most high leverage looks behind those other two relievers. Stephenson is the one who is flying under the radar right now; since being acquired from Pittsburgh in June, he’s running a gaudy 41.2% strikeout rate in Tampa Bay. He’s earned holds in his last two appearances and might be on his way towards earning more high leverage opportunities if he can continue striking out so many batters. The biggest difference maker for him is a new cutter that was introduced to his repertoire upon joining his new team; that pitch is generating a ridiculous 59.5% whiff rate, the highest in baseball for that pitch type. Kittredge is another name to monitor; he was working as the Rays closer towards the end of 2021 and into 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He earned a save in his first appearance off the IL a few weeks ago and could work his way back into high leverage opportunities if his skills haven’t deteriorated post-surgery.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Joey Votto, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 15.34%

Votto is one of the most likable players in the game and is one of the best offensive players of his generation, but he is also turning 40 in less than two weeks and hurt. He actually hasn’t performed poorly, though that is hard to see from the surface-level stats. A .328 wOBA from a 1B is nothing to write home about, but he had 13 HR (better than a 40-homer pace over a full season) and a .206 BABIP is severely hampering his OBP. His line drive rate is just 10.4% and he is hitting way too many grounders, but there is good reason to think that is unsustainable (in a good way) and he’ll hit more line drives (pulling up his BABIP and with it his AVG and OBP) when he comes back. He is expected to be activated in “early September.”

That all sounds like an endorsement to hold Votto, but I will probably end up cutting the one share I have as soon as I need a roster spot. He hasn’t been good or reliable enough to be a regular 1B or Util bat in Ottoneu, which means he is languishing on my bench even when healthy. If you are in need of a 1B when he comes back, he could be useful, so I could see adding him to a watchlist if he is a FA in your league, but there is no need to rush out to grab him.

Jake Cronenworth, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 14.06%

Cronenworth fractured his wrist when he was hit by a pitch and Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports that “he will be in a cast for several weeks and get imaging done after that.” That doesn’t bode well. Several weeks is basically the rest of the season. Which means the only reason to hold Cronenworth is if you think you have him cheap enough to justify keeping him for 2024.

You don’t. Cronenworth has been a pretty poor performer for fantasy this year and really was not much better last year. After his excellent 2021, he showed enough in 2022 to justify hope for this year, but that is gone now. Beyond the fantasy performance questions, it’s unclear to me if he’ll even have a starting job next year. He has a contract that you would think would keep him in the lineup, but the Padres infield is crowded and this offseason should be an interesting one for them. I think he is an easy cut and I don’t expect him to be a priority come 2024 auctions, either.

Stone Garrett, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 13.10%

Garrett’s season is over, as he was placed on the 60-day IL with less than 60 days before the Nats wrap up their 2023 campaign. Like Cronenworth, that means the only reason to hold him now is to keep him for 2024. Unlike Cronenworth, he is on the 60-day IL so he isn’t using up a roster spot, and the only reason to cut him is to save cash.

I liked Garrett before 2023 as a weak-side platoon OF. That role (and the lack of clarity on whether he would even have a chance to fill that role regularly) limited his value, but there was potential there for 40-60 really strong starts against LHP. And Garrett has delivered that, with a .354 wOBA vs. LHP. But he has surprised me with a .333 wOBA against RHP – not nearly as good but enough to be a viable back-end Ottoneu OF. If he keeps that up and has an everyday job, he is a nice bench option – start him against every LHP and have the option to use him when needed against righties. Not bad! But that line vs. RHP is inflated by a .387 BABIP. He still draws walks against righties, but he shows almost no power (2 HR in 129 PA and a .125 ISO).

If you don’t need the cap space, there is no harm in holding (or even adding) him to see what happens in the off-season, but the chances are he’s just a $1 guy.

Luis Medina, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 13.10%

Medina is the first of these players that I am pretty sure I don’t want to cut. The overall numbers are ugly, but he had an absolutely brilliant July. Ben Clemens dove into what drove that impressive run back on August 3, and while the results since then haven’t been as good, that article shows you there is a lot to like. He has a shot to be back from the IL as soon as this coming weekend and that would give him time to make a few more starts this year and provide us more data heading into the off-season. But right now, I think he is better than a lot of other options out there and there is good potential for him to be the kind of guy you can keep for $3-$6 instead of paying $8-$10 on him at auction when the hype machine starts up. It’s also possible he stinks in September and is an afterthought in January, but unless I really can’t afford to hold him on my roster, I would prefer to wait and see.

Emerson Hancock, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.78%

Hancock is a somewhat maddening prospect, as scouts love his stuff and he has flashed some really impressive performances but he has yet to consistently produce in the high minors (or the majors). He also skipped Double-A and is in a pitching-rich org that may not have a need for him in their April (or May, or June) rotation next year. In leagues where cap space is not at a premium, I am happy to hold him (or pick him up) and stash him, since he is on the 60-day. If we find out in January that he is slated for a rotation spot (either in Seattle or with another org following a trade), I think I will be happy to have held him and there is basically zero risk since you can just cut him in the off-season anyway.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Travis d’Arnaud, -1.67 P/G:

TdA was on fire early in the year, part of the most feared offensive catching tandem in the game. But he has been down since June 1, bad since July 1, and awful recently. It’s a challenge to know when to move on from any player, but that gets even harder for a part-time catcher, as it takes so long for any slump to become a meaningful sample of data to draw conclusions from. This two-week stretch looks awful, but it is just six games and 24 PA! But we are now at more than a two-month run where, if you were using d’Arnaud for every start, you haven’t been benefiting. If you haven’t moved on already, I would.

Francisco Alvarez, 0.45 P/G:

NL East catchers are all tanking, I guess. Alvarez has really been struggling ever since the calendar turned to August, and I wondered if he is maybe just hitting a wall in his rookie year. But, he hasn’t reached some crazy PA or games played milestones – he got plenty of minor league playing time in the past – and in some ways his stats are improving. His August K-rate is better than his season-long K-rate. Same for his walk rate. Same for his exit velocity and hard-hit rates. His barrel-rate is down, his BABIP is way down, his ISO is down, and his line drive rate is down. All of those “downs” are related, but they are also all numbers that are hard to trust in small samples, in part because they are so related to each other. I don’t think there is much to see here and even if there is, he is too talented to do anything other than live with the slump and be glad you have him for the future.

Hunter Greene,  -9.45 P/IP:

Greene looks like such a special pitcher, at times, and then he comes back from injury and gives up 5 HR and 8 walks over 6.2 IP in two starts. Greene had some big homer blow-ups in 2022 but managed to avoid those this year, never giving up more than two in a start until the five-homer barrage against Toronto last week. The walks, though, have been a real issue, and even without any other big homer days, he was still fairly homer-prone. This just seems like it will be the Hunter Greene experience – the walks will come with a lot of strikeouts, he’ll often give up a homer or two, and there will be occasional implosions when the ball is just sailing out on him. The overall package is still worth it, but unless he finds a way to rein in the BB and HR, he is going to be more good than great.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Jake McCarthy, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.77%

McCarthy’s August batting average dipped down to .192 and even though he stole three bases in that time, he was a drain on points totals and roto standings. He was demoted to AAA on August 14th and in his five games played so far he is batting .273 with a home run, five RBI, and one stolen base. He has struck out five times as well.

McCarthy’s 2022 MLB K% was 21.5% and he has dropped his 2023 mark down to 19.2%. The league average currently sits at 22.7%, so McCarthy doesn’t necessarily have a strike-out problem. His OBP (.325) is above the league average (.320). Maybe he’s getting BABIP’d? Nope. His .305 BABIP is greater than the MLB average of .297. One of the biggest issues I can find is simply in McCarthy’s slugging (.331) which is way below the league average of .414. He isn’t hitting the ball hard and he is putting it on the ground often. McCarthy is proving to be a fairly average player in a crowded Arizona outfield who isn’t contributing much in the slugging department. Keep an eye on him in AAA while also keeping track of the current MLB Arizona outfielders (Tommy Pham, Alek Thomas, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) and you may find an opportunity to buy low, which you would still want to do given his stolen base potential.

Paul DeJong, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.46%

Traded to Toronto, then benched, then designated for assignment, then released, and now landing with the Giant, Dejong has had a busy few weeks. He has hit 13 home runs in 2023, but his batting average is a low .211, which is actually higher than the marks he posted in 2021 and 2022. Dejong will get another chance with the Giants, but their infield is crowded and I don’t see him contributing much besides possibly a bench role this season. Dejong has been the player he has always been in 2023, so no fantasy manager should be surprised.

Andrew Chafin, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –7.99%

Since being traded to the Brewers, Chafin has mostly played a middle relief role, but his move has not come with great success. His K/9 has gone down, his BB/9 has gone way up and his Brewers ERA sits at 11.81. Chafin just hasn’t had his fastball consistently this season and it has returned a -4.1 pVal (PitchInfo) in 2023, a career low. Chafin lost a tremendous amount of value when he moved away from Arizona where he could have at least recorded holds. In my opinion, he’s an easy drop in all formats.

J.D. Davis, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.71%

With a 2023 first-half batting average of .277 and a career batting average of .261, many managers probably saw a second-half dip coming and it did, dropping (so far) to .167. Davis has had a solid season, but it has been more in line with all his other seasons in the past. The difference is that he has gotten much more playing time with the Giants than he did when he was with the Mets. Davis is the type of player whose xwOBA always looks good because of his ability to hit the ball hard and find the barrel. But, he’s been slumping in both departments as of late:

Notice, however, that while his slugging percentage has been trending down consistently, he has had a bump as of late in his hard-hit rate. Add to that the fact that his second-half BABIP sits at .230 and there might be reason to be hopeful about Davis moving forward. Part of the reason for this BABIP drop could be that his second-half ground ball rate has ballooned to 60%, so there are likely some swing adjustments that need to be made and should be paid close attention to.

Joey Wiemer, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.07%

Among qualified hitters playing center field, Joey Wiemer has the fourth-best ultimate zone rating (UZR) and sixth-best “Def” mark. You would think that is likely to keep him in the lineup in Milwaukee, but Jeff Zimmerman recently wrote in his 8/18/23 lineup analysis that:

Joey Wiemer (vs LHP) and Tyrone Taylor (vs RHP) are in an outfield platoon.

Wiemer’s overall .213/.290/.376 slash line is not doing your fantasy team any favors. He was hyped in prospect discussion due to his ability to hit the ball very hard and while he is doing that in 2023 more than the average player, he is striking out way too much (27.4%). He is batting only .178 against righties, but he does have six home runs against them. His other seven home runs (13 total) have come against lefties. Match his 13 home runs with his 11 stolen bases and he’s still not a bad player to roster. At only 24 years old and a max EV of 112.8, I’m holding with the hope that he can improve his plate discipline (somewhat) as he matures as a major leaguer.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Mickey Moniak,  -1.09 P/G:

After an incredible May, June, and July, where Moniak hit above .300 in each of those months, he has finally cooled off in August and cooled off big time. He is hitting just .138 so far in the month. Overall in 2023, Moniak hit .307 against right-handed pitching and just .114 against left-handed pitching. While he has run a very high K% all season (35.2%), it has jumped to 47.5% in August. With Mike Trout back in the lineup, Moniak is likely a bench player for now.

Austin Slater,  -0.92 P/G:

Slater has not had a hit in August in 23 plate appearances, which is wild considering he hit .366 in 43 June plate appearances. Roster Resource has Slater in a projected platoon versus LHP. His August K% has also swelled up to 43.5%. He’ll need to find his stroke again in order to be fantasy-relevant.

Tony Gonsolin,  -3.40 P/IP:

Before hitting the IL with “right forearm inflammation”, Gonsolin gave up six home runs in two starts. The Marlins got him for 10 earned runs in his most recent start and he threw only 3.1 innings. He has given up at least one home run in each of his last eight starts. The outlook on Gonsolin is not good for the rest of the season:

Dave Roberts said Tony Gonsolin is on IL with elbow injury. He was pressed on length of time Gonsolin will miss. Roberts conceded it is “Unlikely” Gonsolin will return this season. #Dodgers

— David Vassegh (@THEREAL_DV) August 19, 2023

Michael Kopech,  -4.32 P/IP:

Kopech, like Gonsolin, has had unreal home run issues in 2023 and his last two starts have not deviated from that at all. He gave up four dingers in his last two starts and a combined 13 earned runs. His season-long HR/9 is now at 2.17, which leads the league among starters with at least 100 IP. With that same IP threshold going back to 2010, Kopech’s HR/9 ranks 8th place among starters. If you’ve been rostering Kopech this whole time, then I just don’t know.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Just a few notes because I’m on vacation:

• The Rays get an easy homestand next week with the Rockies and Yankees in town. You could argue that the Astros have two easy matchups too with the Red Sox at home (Boston has been atrocious on the road) and then the Tigers on the road.
• After playing in Houston, the Red Sox return home to play the red hot Dodgers, giving them two tough matchups next week. The Giants also have a pair of challenging opponents next week in the Phillies and Braves.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Luis Castillo
• Clayton Kershaw
• Blake Snell
• Zack Wheeler
• Jordan Montgomery
• Bryce Elder
• Paul Blackburn

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Bryan Baker, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 13.74%

Baker’s demotion to AAA mostly seemed like a space-making move to allow Jack Flaherty a roster spot. Baker has been a solid reliever with a 10.93 K/9 and a very small 0.64 HR/9, but a high 5.14 BB/9. Even with that high walk rate (13.7% BB%) Baker’s xERA (3.24) is lower than his actual (3.64). From a pure fantasy production standpoint, however, Baker doesn’t add much to Ottoneu teams. He has recorded no saves and has blown three. He has four wins and 11 holds on the season. It’s highly likely that Baker will return to the O’s bullpen sometime this season and the only reason to add him to fantasy rosters would be for those looking to add wins and holds wherever they can find them.

Scott Barlow, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 12.46%

Barlow’s actual ERA as a Padre is 11.12 and his FIP is 5.91. That, in part, means that he has been getting somewhat unlucky with balls in play, though he still has given up eight hits, three walks, and a home run in his short stint in San Diego (5.2 IP). Regardless, it wasn’t good for your fantasy team had you been rostering him. If it’s any consolation his worst two appearances as a Padre where he recorded negative points in that format were against the Dodgers. He rebounded with positive points against the Mariners and the Diamondbacks. Either way, lots of fantasy managers are dropping the once-Royals closer because they figure he won’t be recording saves anymore. RosterResource seems to agree, for now, as he’s listed as a middle-reliever. He recorded a hold in his debut with the Padres, but not since.

Luis Severino, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –9.26%

Dan Szymborski recently published “The 2024 Projection Decliners: Pitchers” and Severino was listed as the number two starter. Here’s a snippet from his analysis of Severino:

Sure, the homers will come down, and it’s unlikely Severino will continue to see a BABIP this poor, but there’s no way to explain around a year-over-year loss of about a third of your strikeout rate when combined with a similar ballooning of your walks. This Severino just has too many balls connecting with bats, and it’s hard to get around that.

While some analysts have been relying on the home run rate coming down, Szymborski points out that there is much more than just bad luck happening here:

Even if you were to figure his ERA (8.06) and xERA (6.74) are off, you wouldn’t even want to roster the xERA. His swinging strike rate is down, but so is his overall K/9:

2019: 12.75 –> 2021: 12.00 –> 2022: 9.88 –> 2023: 7.92

Starling Marte, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.95%

It was recently reported that Marte won’t be back on the roster when eligible:

Starling Marte (right groin strain) isn't likely to come off the injured list when eligible on Wednesday, per Buck Showalter. Sounds like he may need a minor league rehab assignment, which will extend his absence even further.

Marte hasn't played since Aug. 5.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) August 13, 2023

Perhaps some fantasy managers are done waiting around and are in need of the roster spot. While Marte has been disappointing on the base paths this season with 18 stolen bases, that’s still a pretty great mark. Yes, he was projected by most to be in the high twenties and, by some, in the thirties, but injuries happen. His slash line on the year isn’t what it was last year, but it’s still rosterable at .248/.301/.324. Rest of season projections have him for three more home runs and around seven more stolen bases. His wOBA and SLG were declining somewhat before he went on the IL, but it could have been injury related.

If you’re in a position where you can afford to pick Marte up and you really need stolen bases, he’s not a bad option. Just keep an eye on his performance once he’s back on the field to make sure the injury issues aren’t holding him back.

Matt Manning, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 7.98%

It has probably been difficult to roster Manning in points formats as he’s given up a lot of home runs in single appearances resulting in three negative point games. But, he’s also hit two games where he’s brought in over 35 points. For the most part, his strike-out numbers are worse than the MLB average, yet his command metrics are better:

–

That plays ok in points formats, but not necessarily in standard roto formats. Manning is still only 25 years old and has a median salary only three dollars in Ottonue leagues. If I had him for three dollars or any amount less than that, I’d be keeping him, playing the matchups, and hoping that his player page “Prospect TLDR” eventually rings true:

We’re sticking to our guns regarding Manning’s FV despite a rocky rookie year, due largely to his athleticism and long-term body projection.

 

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 30 days.

Josh Rojas,  -0.22 P/G: Since moving to Seattle Rojas’ slash line has declined .158/.200/.211, though it is the result of only 20 plate appearances. In 2023 with the Diamondbacks, he lost a lot of playing time and recorded only 216 plate appearances. His slash line with the Diamondbacks in 2023 was .228/.292/.296, which is a far cry away from his 2022 .269/.349/.391. He has been batting in the eight and nine spot in the lineup and playing second base with the Mariners.

Austin Hays,  1.32 P/G: Hays’ first-half slash line was excellent (.314/.355/.498) but it has really come down in the second half (.182/.219/.253). A lot of it has to do with an increased ground ball rate (40.6% first half, 58.9% 2nd half) and a decreased BABIP (.389 first half, .236 second half). His 2022 slash line was .250/.306/.413 so we’re really seeing in-season regression to the mean.

Mitch Keller,  1.15 P/IP: Keller’s home run troubles continue to hurt his value in Ottoneu points leagues especially. In his last five starts (26.2 IP) Keller has given up six home runs and twenty earned runs while walking 10. Those are bad numbers. He did strike out 31, but two of those five starts resulted in negative point accumulation in Ottoneu points leagues.

Alex Cobb,  1.79 P/IP: Much like Keller, Cobb has been bit by the home run bug in his last five starts (26 IP) as he gave up seven home runs and 19 earned runs. He also struck out 19 in those starts, but three of the five games resulted in negative point totals.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• There are a number of teams who have a five-game schedule next week, including the Blue Jays, Cubs, Phillies, Reds, Twins, and White Sox. Those teams might use the two off days to skip a start or reorder their rotations so keep an eye on the scheduled starters next weekend. Pay attention to Philadelphia and Toronto in particular since both of those teams are currently using a six-man rotation, meaning one of their regular starters won’t have a start next week.
• The Twins look like the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week when they take on the Tigers and Pirates at home. The Brewers have the unenviable task of traveling to Los Angeles and Texas to face two of the toughest offenses in baseball. The Angels also have a rough schedule next week, continuing their grueling stretch of opponents with the Rangers and Rays. I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone on the Blue Jays or White Sox either.
• Even though the Rockies have two series at home next week, their matchup ratings look artificially mediocre rather than poor like you’d expect. That’s largely due to them playing on the road recently, bringing their last 14 day wOBA down. Even though the matchup rating for the Diamondbacks and White Sox looks okay, I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone at Coors Field anyway.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Max Fried
• Logan Gilbert
• Yu Darvish
• Max Scherzer
• Bobby Miller
• Miles Mikolas

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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