Yesterday, Lucas Kelly shared three lessons he learned playing Ottoneu this year, leading off with “Reach your maximums!” Lucas showed that the teams that finished atop the standings in league 184 did so, at least in part, by making sure they reached 162 games played at each position and 1500 IP.

This sparked an interesting discussion in Ottoneu slack around hitting those caps, including questions of just how important it is and how much hitting your caps is a result of being a contender (because contenders actively try to maximize points while rebuilders might be less engaged) vs. a cause of being a contender. And we got some very interesting data as a result.

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The winner of the FanGraphs Staff Two Ottoneu League (1327) won by a minuscule two-tenths of a point. With 18,670.7 total points, “Roy Donk?” outlasted “Trial By Drury” by sheer force, maximizing all of his positional games played and missing his innings mark by only two. What a feat! Could it have been different had “Trial By Drury” maxed out on their OF and UTIL games played? We’ll never know.

I certainly can’t pass judgment on any team’s ability to maximize their points. My team, “The Ghost Runners” missed positional game maximums for 2B, SS, MI (by a lot!), OF, and UTIL. Oh, yeah, and I missed my IP totals too. I had a lot of injuries, played in too many leagues, dealt with cap space issues, yada, yada, yada! Yet somehow, I finished fifth. Luck? Probably. This season in our little free league, teams that reached their maximums were much more likely to finish higher in the standings, and that brings me to my first lesson of 2023…

Reach your maximums!

In FanGraphs Points Leagues that do not have playoffs, teams are allowed 1,500 innings pitched (soft-max) and 162 games per position with a higher 810 games allowed total for OF slots. This is a free league and it’s very possible that some of my league mates are playing in other, paid and possibly high-stakes, leagues. But, I should have used that to my advantage. Take a look at how teams finished, on average, when they reached their max compared to when they did not:

It’s illuminating to see how many teams did not get to their max. My MI situation was a mess all season long, but I still should have put a player, any player, there more often. I noticed it was an issue mid-season, and tried to trade away one of my extra outfielders for a middle infielder, but couldn’t find any takers. Being left with low points-per-game (P/G) targets on the waiver wire sucked the motivation right out of me and I continued to ignore the missing slot in my lineup. Shame! Lack of effort is to blame, but I also hit maximums too early last season and may have been too conservative this season because of it.

Home runs hurt your pitching, but accumulation is more important

You’ll notice in the scatter plots below that the best teams in this league hit the most home runs. Though the first-place finisher did not hit the most home runs, they finished in the top five. On the other side of things, teams that gave up fewer home runs than everyone else didn’t necessarily show tremendous gains. That’s mostly due to the fact that when you accumulate innings, you accumulate home runs given up. Those teams whose pitchers aren’t giving up home runs are likely avoiding them because they are starting pitchers less often.

Each day matters

Total all your points and divide them by all of your games started among your position players, and you have your season-long points per game (P/G). Do the same with your innings pitched (P/IP) and then add the two together. The sum of P/G and P/IP is telling of how your team did on not only a daily basis but also a decision basis. Obviously, having good players is what you’re after, but scoring points each and every day throughout the season is the name of the game:

Teams that finished in the top three spots had the highest sum of P/G and P/IP. That generally translates to good, quality players, but as we’ve seen, it also translates to accumulation. This season, teams that had a handful of everyday hitters and regular pitchers above six points per game were much better for it. Here are all pitchers and hitters placed into decile groups by P/G and P/IP:

This reflects all players regardless of games or innings pitched or whether they are a reliever or a starter. In upcoming posts, I’ll build out these decile ranks with more specificity, but for now, this will do. It gives us a clearer picture of how P/G and P/IP relate to your team as a whole. We all want decile one and two players. Heck, I’ll take decile three players any day. Those are the quality players that contribute to your daily points at a high level.

Taking stock and analyzing your league as a whole is an important step to improving. I, personally, have a long list of things that I need to do to win this league next season. Now, sadly, I have six months to think about it.

The Ottoneu off-season has already commenced, as the first steps to turn the calendar to 2024 are underway. Over the off-season, we will continue to provide Ottoneu content, including some season recaps of what went right and wrong for our teams. But today, I want to look at positional eligibility.

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The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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You’ve pushed through six months of baseball. You have set your lineups daily (or almost daily, or weekly, or something). You have bid on more auctions than you can count. And here you are, six days of baseball remaining until we hit the off-season, and you are wondering what to do now.

That depends a lot on where you are in the standings but there are a few things to keep in mind as you enjoy this final week of fantasy baseball.

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Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Gregory Santos, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 22.12%

Santos has, at times, looked like the best reliever in the White Sox pen and while that isn’t all that impressive, it does mean he has had a chance for saves and holds on a regular basis. That wasn’t enough to make him “good” (6.06 P/IP for a RP) but it was enough to make him rosterable. Until mid-August he was closer to 6.5 P/IP, but over a one-month period, he put up 34.57 points over 9.1 IP. That is both a relatively limited work-load and a well-below-replacement-level P/IP. That rough stretch coincided with a pretty clear drop in his velocity and ended with an IL stint.

Mediocre numbers followed by bad numbers followed by an injury is a recipe for a reliever to be cut and he should be cut everywhere. He isn’t good enough to keep and he is probably only a “buy” in auctions next year if he either starts off well or has a nice jump in velocity (or both).

Hunter Renfroe, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 21.79%

Renfroe wasn’t having a great season for the Angels and they put him on waivers. The Reds claimed him and, to be honest, I hoped that would be a nice landing spot for him. Instead, over 17 days he got 44 PA and posted a 17 wRC+ and the Reds cut him loose. Renfroe turns 32 this off-season and came into this year with two very solid offensive years in 2021 and 2022, so you would imagine he lands somewhere for 2024, but as a fantasy manager, I think I am staying away.

He had a bit of an odd season. His BB-rate was higher than those two strong years and his K-rate was almost perfectly in-line with those two years, despite the fact that he was more aggressive at the plate (chasing more and swinging in the zone more), didn’t make more contact, and ran a higher swinging-strike rate. That success with his plate discipline didn’t lead to success overall because his power dried up. After averaging 30 HR and .239 ISO in 547 PA the last two seasons, this year he hit 20 HR with a .183 ISO in 548 PA. His hard-hit and barrel rates both decreased, and he decreased his fly-ball rate, as well, hitting more grounders instead. He used to punish fastballs, and that wasn’t the case this year. You can see this in his Baseball Savant Swing/Take profile: last year he was +19 runs on pitches he took and this year he was +17 (not a huge shift), but on his swings he went from -13 runs to -26. Part of that is just that he swung more, but the bigger issue is he simply didn’t punish the ball when he swung. This was almost entirely in the “Shadow” zone – pitches around the edge of the strike zone – where he swung a bit more and was far less successful. In 2022, his wOBA on contact in the shadow zone was .357 with a .319 xwOBA. This year it was .267 with a .265 xwOBA.

This all looks to me like a guy losing bat speed, making more aggressive swing choices to make up for that, and not being able to create the quality of contact he expects. That’s not something I want to buy in on.

Alex Cobb, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Cobb threw an absolute gem against Cincinnati, then made three horrific starts and hit the IL. He just hasn’t been good enough to keep around through an IL stint, but he will assuredly show up on rosters again next year. He always does enough to tantalize.

Colin Holderman, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Holderman is an easy one – he has been a decently good but not-great RP and now he is hurt. No need to holderhim.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Sean Murphy,  -0.83 P/G:

Sean Murphy has done wonderful things for fantasy teams all year but over the last couple of weeks, it has been ugly. I am not sure if I am more concerned about the -5 points or the fact that he has made just six appearances, but neither is good. Though it is worth nothing that because I am writing this on Sunday night, his Sunday afternoon home run hasn’t hit these numbers yet and would certainly help. But no matter how you look at it, Murphy has been so bad in September that it has tanked his entire second half line. For now, there isn’t much you can do. If you have a backup C you like, you may need to use him more to fill out games played, as Murphy is clearly being given plenty of rest ahead of the post-season. But other than that, you just have to ride through this because Murphy is a legitimately elite C and you probably want to keep him for 2024.

C.J. Cron, -4.00 P/G:

Is this cheating, given he played just one game? Yes, it kind of is. But Cron came to LA, got hurt, played one game, and got hurt again. But even around that, he was not good in Colorado this year and he was putrid with the Angels. He’s an easy cut, at any price, right now, and going into 2024, he isn’t more than a late-draft flyer, and that assumes he has a starting job somewhere.

Jon Gray,  -4.04 P/IP:

Holy smokes, Gray tanked his season in a hurry. As of the end of August, Gray had 137.2 IP and put up 547.59 points for 3.98 P/IP. That isn’t good, but it is bordering on useful especially if you can play matchups with him. An abysmal September, especially his last three starts, has him at 3.75 P/IP on the year. He’s not only played his way into being an easy cut today, I think he is going to be hard to roster next year.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• We’ve made it to the final week of the season. Ottoneu head-to-head leagues should be all wrapped up leaving teams in points leagues to battle it out for the top three spots in their leagues. A reminder that the innings pitched cap is a soft cap, so make sure you plan out when your starters are going next week and try to stack as many of them as you can on the day you think you’ll go over the cap.
• Be on the lookout for teams that re-slot their rotations in preparation for the playoffs or teams who try to line up their starters for a final push into the postseason. Double-check your probables and be ready to switch to a backup plan if things go sideways.
• The Orioles, Royals, and Tigers all have easier matchups to close out the season. Those teams don’t normally have a ton of “must start” pitchers but the schedule aligns perfectly to give them some nice and easy opponents next week.
• The Cubs and Mariners are both fighting for a playoff spot in their respective Wild Card races and they’ll be going up against some tough offenses. You’ve got to start the three aces on Seattle’s pitching staff but I’d be weary of calling on their two young rookies. It’s even tougher for Chicago since they’ll spend all of next week on the road against two very good teams. Justin Steele is fighting for the NL Cy Young and he even has a two-start week next week, but I think I’d only be comfortable starting him against the Brewers.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Blake Snell
• Kevin Gausman
• Logan Webb
• Luis Castillo
• Zac Gallen
• Aaron Nola
• Justin Verlander
• George Kirby
• Michael King
• Kyle Bradish
• Reese Olson

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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The clock is ticking down on the regular season which means it’s crunch time for fantasy baseball players. It’s probably too late to affect the outcome of any Ottoneu head-to-head leagues at this point — your roster is what it is during championship week — but points leagues still have two weeks to continue to accumulate points and try and hit their positional and innings caps. Below, I’ve compiled four starters who look like they have easier matchups over these final weeks of the season and who are rostered in less than 60% of Ottoneu leagues. If you’re desperate for innings to reach your cap, these guys might be able to help.

Dean Kremer shows up in this column again! He had one five-run clunker a week ago but his FIP since the All-Star break has been a tidy 4.27, a full run higher than his ERA. He has continued to keep the ball in the yard while maintaining his acceptable strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s not flashy, but he feels like a safe option over these final two weeks of the season. His schedule lines up to face the Guardians on the road and the Red Sox at home; the first game is a slam dunk and the second looks safe too since Boston’s offense is so horrendous on the road.

Since moving to the starting rotation full-time in mid-August, Zach Thompson has put up a 4.15 ERA backed by a 3.77 FIP in seven starts and another bulk relief appearance. His last start against the Phillies was the first time he had allowed more than three runs in an appearance during this stretch. His strikeout-minus-walk ratio is a solid 18.2% and he hasn’t been hurt by the long ball too much. If you can get him on your roster ahead of his next start on Wednesday, he’d be lined up to make three starts for your fantasy team, twice against the punchless Brewers and once against the Reds at home.

Sawyer Gipson-Long has impressed over his first two starts in the majors, allowing just three runs in 10 innings while striking out 16. His minor league strikeout rates took a big step forward this year and that success has followed him to the big leagues. It’s a super small sample size, but two of his pitches are running whiff rates over 50% and his sinker is earning a whiff on 35% of the swings against it. Those look like legit weapons and Stuff+ is impressed with the underlying physical characteristics of his pitch arsenal. He has starts in Oakland and against the Guardians at home to close out the season and both of those look pretty juicy. Ride the hot hand while you can and hope that he can continue his early success.

If you’re feeling really risky, Pedro Avila could be an option to turn to. Since joining the rotation in mid-August, he’s put up a 5.95 ERA and a 5.29 FIP in four starts and one bulk relief outing. Most of that damage came in a single game against the Dodgers where he allowed seven runs in just 2.2 innings; take that outing away and his ERA drops to 3.71. His next two outings should be against the Cardinals at home and then the White Sox on the road. Neither is a perfect matchup, so I’d recommend turning to him only if you’re completely desperate for innings to hit your cap.

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Parker Meadows, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 17.63%

The 23-year-old Tigers outfielder has gone cold after a hot start. In his first 10 games, he went 10 for 34 (.294) with a home run and a stolen base. In his last 10 games, he has gone two for 26 (.077) with zero home runs, but three stolen bases. This is what we should expect from a young hitter who entered the MLB with a career (MiLB) K% in the mid-to-high 20s. I don’t think it’s a reason to drop Meadows in keeper leagues like Ottoneu unless you got all excited and paid too much for him during the hot streak.

Geraldo Perdomo, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 8.33%

Perdomo is in a slump. He hasn’t had a hit in his last 22 at-bats and only has four walks in that time. He’s been a streaky hitter all season long, but he’s currently in his worst 15-game wOBA dip this season:

Perdomo’s plate discipline statistics are very interesting. He strikes out only 17.1% of the time, makes great in-zone contact, swings outside of the zone less often than average, and has a BABIP near .300. In September, however, his BABIP is a low .111 and his September K% (22.9%) is the highest it’s been month-by-month this season. He has dropped down into the nine spot in the batting order and his playing time is in jeopardy as Jordan Lawlar will start to get more and more time at the SS position.

Jose Siri, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.41%

Sadly it appears that Siri’s 2023 fantasy campaign is over, though he may be able to return from a fractured hand injury for the playoffs. His 25 2023 home runs outperformed every projection system though his 12 stolen bases underperformed every projection system. In addition, the average and on-base percentage marks he posted in 2023 were in line with most projections, but his slugging percentage outperformed. Clearly, Siri developed some unexpected pop in 2023. He finished the regular season with a fantasy-relevant, but not award-winning, slash line of .222/.267/.494.

Lance Lynn, Add% (-) Change (7 days) –6.73%

In his last four starts, Lynn has given up 20 earned runs and nine home runs. His K/9 ratio in those starts was a dismal 2.45 and his BB/9 sat at 3.27. That’s bad. It has been a really wild season for Lynn as his command and strikeout statistics have been all over the place:

Many managers are likely dumping Lynn as they just can’t take the earned runs, especially the home runs in points leagues. However, Lynn is still accumulating wins. Since joining the Dodgers, Lynn has won five games. While his Dodger ERA stands at 4.60, his White Sox ERA stands at 6.47. He will likely get another two, maybe three, starts. One against the Tigers in LA and likely two against the Giants. The velocity on all three of his fastballs was down significantly on August 31, but in his two starts since that date, all three have risen back up to around his average. Certainly, as many have pointed out, his pitch mix has changed since being traded to the Dodgers:

The Tigers have the 28th worst wOBA in the MLB (28th against righties too) and the Giants rank 21st (jump to 20th against righties). Lynn has not been what he was projected to be before the season began in the case of WHIP and ERA, but his strikeout totals, IP, and win predictions were right on the mark:

Michael Lorenzen, Add% (-) Change (7 days) – 6.08%

Lorenzen has made five starts since his August 9th no-hitter. In that time he has a 7.96 ERA and has coughed up eight home runs. His K/9 of 4.85 in his last five starts is lower than his season average of 6.48 and his recent BB/9 of 3.81 is high compared to a 2.60 season average. His fastball velocities look stable, but his off-speed pitches have jumped in velocity in recent games. Perhaps the Phillies are tinkering with his mix and approach some, but even more problematic is the fact that the Phillies are planning to utilize Lorenzen in a relief role in their upcoming matchup with Atlanta. I’m not sure what that means for the future and if it’s a good idea to tell a team like Atlanta their plans way ahead of time, but it’s probably clear that Lorenzen won’t be much fantasy help for the rest of the season.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Adam Duvall,  -2.00 P/G:

Duval is hitting .151 in his last 14 games, but he has hit three home runs and walked four times. His slugging and wOBA are dipping below average currently and time is ticking on the 2023 season.

Whit Merrifield,  -0.66 P/G:

In his last 14 games, Merrifield is batting .204 with 10 strikeouts. He has stolen two bags in that time but hasn’t hit a home run. His K% is on the rise and his wOBA is on the decline:

MacKenzie Gore,  -5.25 P/IP:

Gore was placed on the IL with blisters a little over a week ago as of this writing. He may make one last start, but that is not a guarantee as the Nationals have no reason to tack on more workload to the 24-year-old’s season. Gore threw a career-high 136.1 IP this season, increased his major-league K/9, decreased his major-league BB/9, and posted seven wins with a 4.42 ERA. While there’s no reason to hold on for this season, Gore certainly has long-term potential and shouldn’t be dropped if he’s rostered for a reasonable price.

Nathan Eovaldi,  -2.57 P/IP:

Since his return from injury, Eovaldi has not looked good. He has posted a 7.71 ERA and a 7.71 BB/9. He’s also given up three home runs. While his K/9 in that time (9.0) is better than his season 8.13, he’s given up too many walks and home runs, a terrible combination. As the Texas Rangers stagger at the end of the season, Eovaldi needs to rebound in his next start, likely on Tuesday against the Red Sox.