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Archive for Ottoneu

Ottoneu Hot Right Now: August 21, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

  • Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
  • Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
  • Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
  • Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Aug 14, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 19–25

After a week hiatus, welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

August 19–25
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @MIA (162) @BOS (62) Brandon Pfaadt (@MIA), Eduardo Rodriguez, Zac Gallen Jordan Montgomery, Merrill Kelly 켈리, Brandon Pfaadt (@BOS)
ATL PHI (87) WSN (102) Chris Sale Reynaldo López (?), Max Fried, Spencer Schwellenbach, Charlie Morton
BAL @NYM (118) HOU (93) Zach Eflin (x2), Corbin Burnes Dean Kremer (x2), Albert Suárez 수아레즈, Trevor Rogers
BOS @HOU (67) ARI (42) Tanner Houck (x2) Nick Pivetta, Cooper Criswell, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford
CHC DET (144) @MIA (162) Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga Javier Assad (x2), Jameson Taillon Kyle Hendricks
CHW @SFG (164) DET (111) Garrett Crochet Jonathan Cannon (x2) Davis Martin, Chris Flexen 플렉센, Ky Bush
CIN @TOR (95) @PIT (144) Hunter Greene (x2), Nick Lodolo Nick Martinez Carson Spiers (x2), Andrew Abbott
CLE @NYY (31) TEX (111) Tanner Bibee Gavin Williams, Ben Lively 라이블리, Matthew Boyd (vTEX) Matthew Boyd (@NYY), Alex Cobb
COL @WSN (89) @NYY (31) Cal Quantrill, Kyle Freeland Austin Gomber (x2), Tanner Gordon, Bradley Blalock
DET @CHC (115) @CHW (129) Tarik Skubal Bryan Sammons (B), Kenta Maeda, Keider Montero
HOU BOS (38) @BAL (91) Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi (@BAL) Yusei Kikuchi (vBOS), Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco, Justin Verlander, Spencer Arrighetti
KCR LAA (164) PHI (109) Seth Lugo (x2), Cole Ragans Michael Wacha, Brady Singer Michael Lorenzen
LAA @KCR (86) @TOR (95) José Soriano Tyler Anderson (x2) Carson Fulmer (x2), Griffin Canning, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD SEA (107) TBR (98) Jack Flaherty, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw Gavin Stone (x2), Walker Buehler
MIA ARI (73) CHC (113) Max Meyer Edward Cabrera (x2), Valente Bellozo Xzavion Curry, Roddery Muñoz
MIL @STL (151) @OAK (149) Tobias Myers, Freddy Peralta Colin Rea Frankie Montas (x2), Aaron Civale
MIN @SDP (71) STL (144) Bailey Ober, Pablo López Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews (vSTL) Zebby Matthews (@SDP)
NYM BAL (73) @SDP (71) Sean Manaea, Luis Severino David Peterson (x2), Jose Quintana (x2), Paul Blackburn
NYY CLE (100) COL (124) Luis Gil (x2), Gerrit Cole Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman
OAK TBR (151) MIL (89) Joe Boyle (vTBR), Mitch Spence, JP Sears Joey Estes (x2), Osvaldo Bido
PHI @ATL (71) @KCR (27) Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez Tyler Phillips (x2), Taijuan Walker
PIT @TEX (100) CIN (102) Paul Skenes Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Mitch Keller, Jared Jones (?) Bailey Falter, Jake Woodford
SDP MIN (69) NYM (91) Dylan Cease, Michael King (vNYM) Michael King (vMIN), Matt Waldron, Joe Musgrove Martín Pérez
SEA @LAD (33) SFG (109) Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryan Woo (vSFG) Bryan Woo (@LAD), Bryce Miller
SFG CHW (189) @SEA (155) Kyle Harrison (x2), Robbie Ray, Logan Webb, Hayden Birdsong, Blake Snell
STL MIL (80) @MIN (47) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Sonny Gray Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn
TBR @OAK (149) @LAD (33) Shane Baz (@OAK), Ryan Pepiot Zack Littell (@OAK), Jeffrey Springs, Taj Bradley Shane Baz (@LAD), Zack Littell (@LAD)
TEX PIT (124) @CLE (93) Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle Cody Bradford José Ureña (x2)
TOR CIN (69) LAA (118) Kevin Gausman (x2), Chris Bassitt José Berríos (x2), Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis
WSN COL (118) @ATL (71) Jake Irvin DJ Herz (x2), Mitchell Parker, MacKenzie Gore Patrick Corbin

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Brewers, Cubs, and Giants all have a pair of easier matchups next week. I like all of the starters on San Francisco since they’ll be playing at home and they’ve got a pretty solid rotation right now. Milwaukee plays in two very pitcher friendly stadiums, but I just don’t trust Frankie Montas or Aaron Civale all that much, even in these favorable matchups.
  • On the other end of the spectrum, the Red Sox run into the Astros and red hot Diamondbacks next week and I’d avoid everyone in that rotation save for maybe Tanner Houck’s two starts, and I’d be weary of even starting him despite how good he’s pitched this year.

Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Aug 14, 2024

Sorry for the late start this week – August is vacation season! Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Hot Right Now: August 7, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Cold Right Now: Aug 5, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 5–11

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

August 5–11
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @CLE (125) PHI (122) Zac Gallen (x2), Brandon Pfaadt Eduardo Rodriguez (?), Jordan Montgomery, Ryne Nelson
ATL MIL (104) @COL (51) Chris Sale (vMIL) Charlie Morton, Spencer Schwellenbach Max Fried (?), Reynaldo López, Chris Sale (@COL)
BAL @TOR (95) @TBR (134) Grayson Rodriguez (x2), Zach Eflin, Corbin Burnes Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer
BOS @KCR (83) HOU (106) Tanner Houck Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta James Paxton (x2), Brayan Bello
CHC MIN (92) @CHW (139) Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele Javier Assad, Jameson Taillon Kyle Hendricks (@CHW) Kyle Hendricks (vMIN)
CHW @OAK (104) CHC (92) Garrett Crochet Jonathan Cannon (x2), Drew Thorpe Davis Martin, Chris Flexen 플렉센
CIN @MIA (141) @MIL (88) Nick Lodolo (x2), Hunter Greene Nick Martinez (@MIA), Carson Spiers Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez (@MIL)
CLE ARI (46) @MIN (76) Tanner Bibee (x2), Gavin Williams Ben Lively 라이블리, Carlos Carrasco, Alex Cobb (?) Joey Cantillo
COL NYM (23) ATL (83) Cal Quantrill Kyle Freeland (x2), Ryan Feltner, Austin Gomber, Noah Davis
DET @SEA (139) @SFG (129) Tarik Skubal Alex Faedo (x2), Keider Montero, Kenta Maeda Bryan Sammons
HOU @TEX (127) @BOS (44) Hunter Brown (@TEX), Framber Valdez Yusei Kikuchi, Hunter Brown (@BOS) Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti
KCR BOS (72) STL (129) Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Brady Singer (vSTL) Brady Singer (vBOS) Michael Lorenzen
LAA @NYY (44) @WSN (108) Davis Daniel (x2), Tyler Anderson, José Soriano Carson Fulmer, Griffin Canning
LAD PHI (76) PIT (113) Tyler Glasnow (x2), Jack Flaherty Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, River Ryan
MIA CIN (166) SDP (88) Max Meyer (x2) Valente Bellozo, Kyle Tyler, Edward Cabrera Roddery Muñoz (x2)
MIL @ATL (102) CIN (122) Freddy Peralta Tobias Myers Colin Rea (x2), Frankie Montas, Aaron Civale
MIN @CHC (157) CLE (143) Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson David Festa (x2), Louie Varland
NYM @COL (51) @SEA (139) Sean Manaea (x2), Luis Severino (@SEA) Luis Severino (@COL), Jose Quintana Paul Blackburn, David Peterson
NYY LAA (132) TEX (134) Luis Gil (x2), Gerrit Cole Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón
OAK CHW (199) @TOR (95) JP Sears (vCHW), Ross Stripling, Joey Estes, Mitch Spence JP Sears (@TOR) Osvaldo Bido
PHI @LAD (32) @ARI (23) Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola (x2), Cristopher Sánchez (x2) Ranger Suárez (?) Taijuan Walker
PIT SDP (74) @LAD (32) Paul Skenes Luis L. Ortiz, Mitch Keller Bailey Falter (x2), Marco Gonzales
SDP @PIT (162) @MIA (141) Matt Waldron (x2), Dylan Cease, Michael King Randy Vásquez, Martín Pérez
SEA DET (152) NYM (53) Luis Castillo (x2), George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert Bryce Miller
SFG @WSN (108) DET (187) Logan Webb (x2), Blake Snell Robbie Ray (x2), Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong
STL TBR (104) @KCR (83) Sonny Gray (x2) Erick Fedde 페디, Kyle Gibson Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas
TBR @STL (129) BAL (67) Taj Bradley Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot (?), Zack Littell Jeffrey Springs (x2)
TEX HOU (104) @NYY (44) Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer Tyler Mahle (?), José Ureña
TOR BAL (25) OAK (69) Chris Bassitt (x2), Kevin Gausman, Yariel Rodríguez José Berríos Ryan Yarbrough
WSN SFG (72) LAA (125) Jake Irvin MacKenzie Gore (x2), DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker Patrick Corbin (x2)

A few general schedule notes:

  • There are a few schedule quirks next week: the Mets and Cardinals have a makeup game on Monday which means New York flies from Los Angeles to St. Louis for a single game and then head to Denver and Seattle to complete the road trip. That’s a pretty heavy schedule which could lead to some really tired bodies by the end of it. The other quirk is a scheduled doubleheader between the Twins and Guardians on Friday.
  • Folks, we did it. We have the highest possible matchup score when the White Sox visit Oakland — that’s the worst offense over the last 14 days and on the road playing in the stadium with the best combination of overall run scoring and home run suppressing park factors. JP Sears, Ross Stripling, and Joey Estes are lined up to start in that series and they’re all pitching well enough to count on.
  • The Padres, Twins, and Yankees all have a pair of easier matchups on the schedule while the Blue Jays and Phillies have a couple of tough series and the Rockies are at home for a six-game homestand.

Ottoneu Hot Right Now: July 31, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Cold Right Now: July 29, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 29–August 4

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 29–August 4
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI WSN (143) @PIT (150) Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt Jordan Montgomery (x2), Ryne Nelson Yilber Diaz
ATL @MIL (77) MIA (118) Chris Sale (x2), Reynaldo López Charlie Morton, Spencer Schwellenbach Darius Vines (?)
BAL TOR (123) @CLE (121) Corbin Burnes (x2), Grayson Rodriguez Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez 수아레즈 Cade Povich (x2)
BOS SEA (123) @TEX (118) Tanner Houck Cooper Criswell (vSEA), Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford Cooper Criswell (@TEX)
CHC @CIN (50) STL (105) Justin Steele (x2), Shota Imanaga Javier Assad, Jameson Taillon (vSTL) Jameson Taillon (@CIN), Kyle Hendricks
CHW KCR (82) @MIN (75) Garrett Crochet Erick Fedde 페디 Jonathan Cannon, Drew Thorpe Chris Flexen 플렉센 (x2)
CIN CHC (59) SFG (82) Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo Frankie Montas (x2), Carson Spiers, Andrew Abbott
CLE @DET (118) BAL (75) Tanner Bibee (@DET), Gavin Williams Ben Lively 라이블리, Tanner Bibee (vBAL) Carlos Carrasco Xzavion Curry
COL @LAA (114) @SDP (91) Cal Quantrill, Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner Austin Gomber Ty Blach (x2)
DET CLE (155) KCR (139) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Kenta Maeda, Keider Montero, Joey Wentz
HOU PIT (116) TBR (87) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Ronel Blanco Justin Verlander (?) Jake Bloss, Spencer Arrighetti
KCR @CHW (137) @DET (118) Michael Wacha (x2), Brady Singer, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans Alec Marsh (x2)
LAA COL (73) NYM (16) Tyler Anderson, José Soriano Griffin Canning (x2), Kenny Rosenberg, Carson Fulmer
LAD @SDP (91) @OAK (96) Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone Clayton Kershaw, River Ryan Justin Wrobleski
MIA @TBR (150) @ATL (121) Max Meyer (?) Edward Cabrera (x2), Kyle Tyler Roddery Muñoz, Trevor Rogers
MIL ATL (130) @WSN (109) Freddy Peralta Tobias Myers Colin Rea (x2), Aaron Civale Joe Ross (?)
MIN @NYM (82) CHW (173) Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson (@NYM) David Festa
NYM MIN (91) @LAA (114) Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Kodai Senga Jose Quintana, Tylor Megill, David Peterson
NYY @PHI (43) TOR (98) Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil (vTOR) Luis Gil (@PHI), Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman
OAK @SFG (162) LAD (91) Ross Stripling JP Sears, Mitch Spence Joey Estes, Hogan Harris
PHI NYY (30) @SEA (121) Zack Wheeler (x2), Ranger Suárez Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez Taijuan Walker (?)
PIT @HOU (80) ARI (82) Paul Skenes Luis L. Ortiz, Mitch Keller Marco Gonzales Martín Pérez
SDP LAD (66) COL (102) Dylan Cease, Michael King Matt Waldron Randy Vásquez Adam Mazur
SEA @BOS (52) PHI (77) Logan Gilbert (x2), Luis Castillo, George Kirby Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller
SFG OAK (112) @CIN (50) Robbie Ray, Logan Webb Blake Snell Alex Cobb (?), Kyle Harrison
STL TEX (153) @CHC (130) Sonny Gray Lance Lynn (x2), Kyle Gibson Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas
TBR MIA (134) @HOU (80) Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley Shane Baz, Zack Littell Jeffrey Springs (?)
TEX @STL (130) BOS (39) Nathan Eovaldi (@STL), Max Scherzer Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi (vBOS) Michael Lorenzen, Jon Gray
TOR @BAL (112) @NYY (50) Yariel Rodríguez (x2), Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Gausman José Berríos
WSN @ARI (100) MIL (84) MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin Mitchell Parker (x2), Patrick Corbin, DJ Herz

A few general schedule notes:

  • The MLB trade deadline is next week and I’d expect to see plenty of pitchers moved ahead of the deadline. Make sure you’re double- and triple-checking the announced starters, especially on Monday and Tuesday, so that you’re not caught off guard by a surprise trade.
  • There aren’t any teams that are facing a pair of tough matchups by the calculate matchup ratings above, but I’d avoid Toronto’s starters if I were you. They’re on the road against the Orioles and Yankees with a scheduled doubleheader in Baltimore on Monday. It’ll be a tough week for the O’s too; because of that doubleheader, they’re scheduled to play eight games in seven days including the start of a road trip next weekend in Cleveland.
  • On the flip side, the Diamondbacks and Cardinals both have a pair of easier matchups on the docket next week. It’s a little easier to recommend Arizona’s starters since St. Louis’ have been so erratic this year, but they should all have some pretty rosy matchups to take advantage of.