I wanted to refer to the Format Wars in this article, but they aren’t really wars. They are barely skirmishes. They are mostly friendly debates.

But there is debate! Head-to-Head vs. Seaon-long? Roto vs. points? If you pick roto, are you into 4×4 or 5×5? For points, do you go SABR or FanGraphs? I am happy to weigh in on all of these questions, but today we have a prime opportunity to discuss the two points formats and what makes them unique, so we are going to do that.

Read the rest of this entry »

The season is going full speed ahead and while it is still too soon to draw any grand conclusions from early performances, that won’t stop us from trying to find an edge here or there. Being quick to grab a potential breakout performance comes with risk. You have to make a cut to add that player. You have to spend budget.

But acting fast also comes with upside. A guy who looks risky now and therefore only costs $1-$2 may look less risky in a couple of weeks and cost you $5 or more. And so we, our first truly in-season Hot Right Now of 2024. Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Honestly, I feel bad writing this. It’s been a day. Actually, not even a day – I am at my laptop hours before the first pitch of the first games of the year (yeah, Seoul Series, whatever, today is Opening Day) and I am already reporting on players who are being cut? Ouch.

But, whether we like it or not, players are being cut, and it is my duty to report on those players.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• The first week in the Ottoneu season runs from March 20 through April 7 (including the two games in Korea). If your head-to-head league has a games started cap, you’ll have four extra days of games to juggle with a cap that isn’t proportionally bigger. And if you started any of the four starters from those games in Korea, you’re already down a start. Make sure you’re really keeping track of the best matchups and plan out your starters accordingly.
• Most teams have either one or two off days over these first 11 days of the season. The Twins and Brewers have three off days which should give their starters an extra bit of rest.
• I think JP Sears has a particularly nice pair of matchups to start the season. He’s had a great spring training and he’s lined up to face the Guardians at home and then the Tigers in Detroit. He’s an under-the-radar starter who could get off to a quick start this season.
• The Astros have a particularly tough schedule to start the season with series against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rangers lined up. You could start Framber Valdez since he feels pretty matchup proof, but I’d fade Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown.

It’s Opening Day! I know what you are thinking. You are thinking, “No, Opening Day was last week in Seoul.” Or maybe you are thinking, “No, Opening Day is tomorrow.”

But you are wrong because today is Opening Day…for Ottoneu Hot/Cold Right now. Yes, we are bringing back everyone’s favorite twice-weekly series, looking at the movers and shakers of the Ottoneu universe. Who is getting cut? Who is being added? Who should I bid on? Who is tearing the cover off the ball? This is where you find out.

Read the rest of this entry »

My wife asked me recently how much time I put into Ottoneu and I realized that a) I didn’t know and b) I didn’t want to tell her. So I took a few minutes to think through what I do each day and how long it takes me and realized that sharing my routine might help others think about how they manage their Ottoneu teams.

Read the rest of this entry »

Did anyone leave their draft with a feeling similar to when you just picked up the family dinner check? Broke? It’s so exciting bidding and spending and clicking “+$5” in the draft room, isn’t it? It’s the best time of year and while we all celebrate spring by making fake baseball teams, we can go a little overboard. Take, for example, a winning bid for Jackson Jobe in an Ottoneu Points League of $16. That is, in fact, his max salary. Jobe is a 21-year-old right-hander with zero major league innings to pair with zero AAA innings and he has only recorded six innings as high as AA. Is he worth $16 in 2024? No. He’s expected to be good but not to start the year in the major leagues. He’s had one, that’s right, one inning of spring training. Albeit it was a good one, but $16?!

Read the rest of this entry »

It depends. Thank you for reading my article, I hope you enjoyed it.

Ok, snarky intro aside, this question is coming up a lot lately and it is a good question and one worth considering. Gerrit Cole is, unquestionably, one of the best pitchers on earth. He is a bit better for 5×5 than he is for Ottoneu Points or 4×4 because he can be a bit homer-prone (he wasn’t in 2023, but HR/FB rate is noisy and I expect his will come back up), but that’s beside the point.

He is a legit ace, one of very few reliable aces in the game, and people paid accordingly. And now he is hurt. So what do you do?

Read the rest of this entry »

For the fourth straight year, I spent some time once my drafts concluded compiling my rosters to see what players I roster the most. This year, I again have seven Ottoneu leagues, but only 12 total leagues (down two from last year thanks to cutting out NFBC), and for today’s article I’ll focus on the players I roster most in Ottoneu leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »