Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

NOTE: Today’s post reflects data through Saturday, May 4th (does not include stats from Sunday, 5/5)

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The only schedule quirk next week is a four-game, home-and-home series between the Phillies and Mets. They’ll start off with two games in New York and then two games in Philadelphia. The matchups are poor for the Mets no matter where they’re playing since the Phillies offense has been so good recently. For the Phillies, the matchup is a lot better in the pitcher friendly confines of Citi Field.
• Teams to avoid with a pair of tough matchups include the Guardians and White Sox. Cleveland travels to Texas to face the Rangers and then hosts the red hot Twins. You’re probably not rostering any Chicago starters except for Erick Fedde and he’s the only recommendation I have from their rotation in a revenge game against his former team, the Nationals.
• The Diamondbacks and Dodgers both have a pair of easier matchups on the docket next week. Arizona hosts the Reds and the Tigers, both of whom have struggling offenses. Los Angeles travels to San Francisco and then hosts the Reds.

The beginning of the season can be a tough time to use points per game (P/G) marks to make sit/start decisions in Ottoneu. For example, a player like Alex Bregman is only producing 2.34 P/G this season, well below the current* replacement level cut-line (5.03 P/G) for third basemen in the early season. But, Alex Bregman’s average salary is nearly $30 and you probably don’t feel comfortable letting $30 sit on the bench every day. Then again, plug a player like Josh Rojas in your lineup and you’re collecting a very solid 5.92 P/G, well above the current replacement level cut-line for third basemen. Yesterday, in my “Ottoneu: Hot Right Now” article, I wrote about Rojas and the skills he has displayed in the early season. He could be on the verge of a breakout and may overtake Bregman by the end of the season. But he may also just be “Hot Right Now”. So, how do you make the right decisions on who to play now using P/G in the early season?

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The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As Chad Young has done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

NOTE: Today’s post reflects data through Saturday, May 4th (does not include stats from Sunday, 5/5)

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• There are a bunch of teams with two off days next week: the Blue Jays, Braves, Nationals, Orioles, Red Sox. These teams may take the extra rest day to reset their rotation so keep an eye on their announced starters to make sure the matchups are where you want them.
• The Rangers and A’s have a scheduled double-header on Wednesday and both teams will need to call up a spot starter. Texas will likely give Jack Leiter his second big league start and it comes against a surprisingly decent Oakland ballclub.
• It’s possible we’ll see the activations of Walker Buehler, Justin Steele, Nick Pivetta, Frankie Montas, Bryan Woo, and Braxton Garrett next week. Those pitching staffs will be in flux as they figure out how to fit those injured pitchers back into the rotation.
• The Blue Jays and Nationals have a tough week ahead. Toronto travels to Philadelphia for a couple of games before hosting the red hot Twins. The Nationals have a two-game Beltway series on tap and then will travel to Boston and the cozy confines of Fenway Park.

A month into the season, I start to feel itchy. Those slow starts are now harder to write off. Those impressive early numbers feel less early. And I start to look for data I can aggressively act on. One of the best places to look is where projections have changed. Humans can be easily fooled by random variance that looks like a pattern. Computers are better at finding the signal amongst the noise.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As we have done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

Thursday morning at 4 am ET, Ottoneu Prestige League rosters were updated, as discussed in my article last week about my OPL rosters. If you participate in OPL, you probably already looked at what changed and spent a lot of time thinking about who to add, who to cut, and why.

But even if you don’t play OPL, there are some interesting insights to be gathered from looking at the most added and dropped players in OPL.

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Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

NOTE: Today’s post reflects data through Saturday, April 27th (does not include stats from Sunday, 4/28)

Read the rest of this entry »