Some ottoneu cats have to look to the future, just like the major league teams. How much more to the future can you look than signing 2011 draftees?

Of course, there’s a lot of attrition between now and then. So you have to focus on the top talent. The beginning of the first round boasted two such top talents, Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. Cole, with super agent Scott Boras puling the strings, hasn’t signed yet. But the third overall pick, Bauer, has signed. How much might you pay for a recently drafted college pitcher? Let’s check in with ottoneu owner and FanGraphs writer Jack Moore, who recently won an auction for Bauer.

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After a one week hiatus, I’m continuing to look at players who have been busts in ottoneu fangraphs points fantasy baseball leagues.  It uses the same model described in this post, although the values have been updated based on year to date statistics.

Second Base

My Pick: Dan Uggla

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Another week and another innovation at ottoneu headquarters. Now you can browse any ottoneu league you like, right here. A few recommendations include the FanGraphs Staff League, the original ottoneu league, Justin Merry’s league (for you linear weights players, since he’s the scoring system creator and all), and, yes, the Expert’s League. Use the feature to learn a little more about what you should do in your league.

For example. A little ride over to the commissioner’s team page in the Expert’s League can show you what our group of prognosticators decided Brian McCann was worth ($33). Or how many minor leaguers a seasoned ottoneu player owns (zero in this case). Lastly, since Commissioner Chad Young has his Amateur Hour team in seventh place, it can show you what another ottoneu team trying to decide whether to buy or sell looks like.

It’s an interesting team, you might find when you’re looking at his set lineups page. He’s got J.P. Arencibia and Brian McCann, two very good young catchers, both playing right now. And yet he only has 13 games left to play at the position. Is McCann going to be worth $35 next year? Will someone want Arencibia? This is a clear position of surplus for Young.

His team is not that old, though. Sure, he has Vladimir Guerrero ready to head to the bench for good, and of course no minor leaguers, but he also boasts Eric Hosmer, Hunter Pence, Domonic Brown and Mike Moustakas as position players. But the Vlad injury forces him to play Rajai Davis in the outfield. He could use an outfielder if he’s going to go for it this year.

His pitching is strong. Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, Jeremy Hellickson, Shaun Marcum and Jair Jurrjens are the headliners, but Julio Teheran and Ryan Dempster make for a good bench. If he goes for it, a $10 Marcum might have great trade value without requiring him to sell his top pitching prospect. If he calls it quits on the year, a $43 Roy Halladay may not be keepable, as much of a machine as the Doc is.

The old adage is that “Nobody cares about your fantasy team.” The irony is that you can learn a lot from looking at other people’s fantasy teams. And before we get too up in arms about Chad’s team, we should go softly. He’s about to return from his honeymoon to discover that Guerrero broke his hand. As if returning from a honeymoon wasn’t difficult enough.

Oh, and the offer still stands! Fill an ottoneu league now, and the entire league is free. Contact ottoneu founder Niv Shah if that sounds interesting to you (on twitter or at help @ ottoneu.com).

(it takes me a while to get there, but in this post I propose an alternative to the current FanGraphs Points scoring system for pitchers)

Last week, LuckyStrikes asked me to do a post talking about and defending the scoring system used for pitchers in ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues (I’m the one that developed it).  He pointed out that Doug Fister has been a top-20 pitcher thus far in FanGraphs Points, and went so far to say that it seemed like any scrub pitcher in San Diego or Seattle seems to do well in this system.

Here’s the thing: Fister arguably has been a top-20 pitcher thus far (or, at least, right on the fringes of top-20).  He has 2.7 WAR, which ranks exactly 20th in MLB right now among pitchers, with a 3.09 ERA and a 3.13 FIP in 125 innings!  He’s been fantastic.  In fact, the entire Seattle rotation has been fantastic:

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Ug. In the FanGraphs home league on ottoneu, the fantasy guy in the room has been embarrassed. It’s a Perm needs to open up its doors and sell, sell, sell. I hang my head in shame. My team of old dudes that take walks didn’t take enough of them and proved to be too old.

Maybe you guys can help me spot my most sellable veterans. So far the sharks are circling for Jonathan Papelbon, mostly. He’s not real old, but I have to think about possible returns too. Help me out here. And if you do, I’ll give you a tip on a good deal.

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Using the same model described in my looks at surprise players, here are the biggest busts thus far in ottoneu lwts leagues at catcher and first base.  Almost by definition, these guys are all expected to regress in a positive direction going forward.  But for each position I’ll give you “my pick,” the player that I think is most likely to turn it around in the second half and produce at their price tag.

Catcher

My Pick: Joe Mauer

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Continuing on last week’s theme, we turn our attention today to the National League fantasy All-Stars.  As a reminder, I’m basing this on the past calendar year’s performance under the FanGraphs Points scoring system.   The $ values shown are the player’s average cost on ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues.

Catcher:  Brian McCann (894 pts, .377 wOBA, $30)
Alternates: Buster Posey (753 pts, .368 wOBA, $31) and Carlos Ruiz  (595 pts, .350 wOBA, $5)

Brian McCann is such a stud.  He’s been the best fantasy catcher in the National League for years, and yet somehow I think he still is a bit underrated.  Speaking of underrated, Carlos Ruiz has been a monster over the past year, even if he doesn’t play as often as some of the big guns.  I have him in a 20-team league and can’t find anyone who wants him!

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The All-Star Game voting discussion is topical in real life, so why not talk about it in fantasy?  I’m of the philosophy that All Star Games should be about the best players, not just the players off to a hot start over the first few months.  In this case, I’ll define “best player” as the players that offered the most production over the past calendar year (i.e. June 2010 through May 2011).  Below, the point values are FanGraphs Points, and the $ shown are the player’s average cost.  Without further delay, here are your American League (fantasy) All-Stars!

Catcher: Victor Martinez (746.5 pts, .368 wOBA, $25)
Alternates: Carlos Santana (571 pts, .352 wOBA, $31) and Mike Napoli (565 pts, .343 wOBA, $12)

Now primarily a DH, Martinez continues to be an excellent fantasy producer.  The guy can hit, and with catcher eligibility he’s just a terrific player–probably more so in fantasy than in real life, given his fielding issues.  Santana is back after missing time with injury, and has largely picked up where he left off last year.  Napoli might surprise some folks, but he got a lot of playing time after the first few months last year and produced very well.  If only he could actually catch, he’d get more PT…

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Continuing last week’s theme of looking at the biggest surprises thus far in ottoneu lwts leagues (and, really, fantasy as a whole), we look today at second basemen, shortstops, and outfielders.

Second Base

My pick: Howard Kendrick

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After picking six for over 20 days straight, I’ve won one day. One stinking Bobby Valentine. Perhaps I’m not the best person to turn to for strategy in this particular game. I’ll offer it up anyway.

Mimicking my general fantasy strategy, I’ve been pushing money away from pitching. There are so many good matchups every day, why not find a good, cheap pitcher against a terrible offense? Last night, I chose a $17.75 Shaun Marcum (at home against New York), but that’s about the most expensive I’ll go for a starter. I was severely tempted by a $10.75 Daniel Hudson in Pittsburgh, and even Jonathan Sanchez at home against the Nationals made sense at $6.25 (or his opponent, the $3.50 Jordan Zimmermann). Don’t spend on starting.

If you are not going to spend on starting, there’s really no reason to spend on relieving. If a starter is no guarantee to perform on any given night, at least he’s guaranteed to show up and, you know, play. The ottoneu Dark Lord Niv Shah was kind enough to give me the points per position in the Pick Six game so far. Clearly, relievers are the red-headed step-children of the game.

After all that blabbing about not paying for pitching, it might be surprising to see that starting pitchers have the best number in this table. But the point wasn’t that pitchers are not worth spending money on, the point was that there were plenty of bargains. Niv is nothing if not eminently bug-able – he graciously gave me the points per dollar spent for each position.

Ah-hah. So, even just by groping my way through the dark with intuition instead of the numbers in front of me, it looks like I stumbled onto a viable strategy. Spend where you get the most return for your dollar: non-catcher offense.

Oh, and while you are at it, join a group! Now Pick Six has groups so that you attract like-minded players easily. Oh, and with groups you might be able to put a little friendly gummy-bear wager on the thing. If you like gummy bears or whatever. I’m in #PraiseBeltran and I started RotoGraphRegulars. Pimp your group here if you want others to join in!