With Yu Darvish sufficiently crowdsourced, it’s time to look at this offseason’s other big international import: Yoenis Cespedes. Last week we asked you about his acquisition cost, specifically when you would be comfortable grabbing him in three formats…
We received a total of 325 responses, and the results are as follows…
Two weeks ago, Eno Sarris ran a series of posts asking you, dear readers, to analyze some fantasy questions and offered you a subscription to the FanGraphs+ 2012.
Today, at the behest of Niv Shah – the Abner Doubleday of ottoneu (except, you know, without the doubts that he is actually the man behind the game) – I present to you an opportunity to win a free $9.99 ottoneu team for 2012. All you have to do is tell us who you think was the worst value in the original ottoneu auction that happened this past weekend.
The results are in. After crowdsourcing Yu Darvish’s expected 5×5 stats and ottoneu points production, last week we asked you about his draft round and auction value in three formats…
We received 248 total responses, with the results as follows…
On Tuesday night, we completed a second FanGraphs staff league Ottoneu draft, and after eight long hours — spread over two nights — I had my very first squad. I thought it might be fitting to have my first ever Ottoneu draft coincide with my first post at RotoGraphs, so feel free to skewer my decision-making but please keep in mind I was a first-timer.
The Nationals spent a good portion of the offseason trying to woo Prince Fielder to the nation’s capitol even though they already had a pretty good first baseman in place. That first baseman is Mike Morse, not the $16M man Adam LaRoche. LaRoche missed all but 43 games of 2012 due to a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his left shoulder, an injury that completely sabotaged him at the plate (.258 wOBA in 177 PA) during his first year in Washington.
The 32-year-old LaRoche is now close to nine months out from surgery and working his way back in Spring Training. He told Mark Zuckerman that swinging the bat is not a problem (though he has yet to face live pitching), but he still hasn’t cut it loose when throwing. Since Morse can play the outfield, the Nats will have no problem fitting both men in the lineup if they make it through camp healthy and deserving of regular playing time.
After part one of the auction for the Second FanGraphs Staff League, I took some time to look back at the strategy I set up going into the auction, and to re-strategize for day two, based on where I was.
And looking back, I’d have to say I executed pretty well, although not always in the ways I expected.
Last night, the FanGraphs Staff League II finished up its fantasy auction. Starting at 6:30pm EST, we plugged away until our eyes became blurry, our muscle coordination began to fail, and we became so delirious that even Chone Figgins and Ryan Roberts started to look damn attractive. Staring at a computer screen intensely for 5 hours — stressing out over fringe major-league players — is a recipe to make anyone go insane.
Now that our draft is done, I figured I’d share with everyone a nifty resource that I put together: a tiered ranking for every position, based on players’ projected points according to ZiPS and CAIRO. As I explained in my first post:
I took ZiPS projections for hitters (from the Baseball Think Factory) and CAIRO projections for [starting] pitchers (from RLYW), and then converted these projections into an expected point total for each player. I then broke these players up by position and tiered them, allowing me to see at a glance which positions were deeper than others and which might hold unexpected value.
Well, here is my spreadsheet (right-click, “Save As”). I’ve included the prices that players went for in our draft (minus some of the later round selections, when I couldn’t keep up). This is obviously most helpful for FanGraphs Points leagues, but it’s not a bad proxy for other leagues as well. I’ve included my tiers, and then also included the larger ZiPS and CAIRO projections so that you can find points projections for other players not included in the tiers.
Please keep in mind that these spreadsheets are far from perfect. The projections don’t account for issues like playing time or injuries — Notice how Victor Martinez is highly ranked? — and projection systems are notoriously rough when it comes to rookies. I have not tampered with these rankings in any way, though, because I wanted to present them to you relatively unbiased (you still have to deal with my somewhat arbitrary cut-off points for tiers).
Based on these rankings, there were a couple players that I targeted coming into the draft, since I thought they might be underrated by most people. I didn’t end up with all of these players, but they all did end up being pretty good bargains:
Yu Darvish isn’t baseball’s only super-hyped, high-priced international import this year; the Athletics also made waves when they signed Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. There has been some speculation that he could begin the season in the minors just to get acclimated to the best pitching he’s ever faced (as well as shake off the rust after such a long layoff), but it doesn’t sound like that will happen after signing for four years and $36 million.
Yesterday, my colleague and fantasy competitor, Steve Slowinski, broke down day one of the inaugural auction for the Second FanGraphs Staff League, with an eye towards how his strategy played out. Today we reconvene to finish our bidding marathon, but before we do so, I wanted to take a more general look at part one.
First and foremost, despite Mr. Slowinski’s kind words, I am not sure I am as well positioned as he thinks, nor am I sure my attempt at patience was as smart as it seemed. And that is due to what I would consider some oddities in the bidding.
Due to the rampant success of the first FanGraphs staff ottoneu league — and the fact that the FanGraphs staff has grown tenfold over the past year — we put together a second FanGraphs staff fantasy league for this season, figuring our readers can never have too much ottoneu content. See the labors we go through for you, our loyal readers? This league is a selfless endeavor, and its sole purpose is to educate and entertain the masses. Please, don’t thank us. We do this for love.*
*And by “love”, I may or may not be referring to you, our loyal readers, or fantasy baseball.
This league is a FanGraphs Points league, and since this is the league’s first season, we have to complete an epic, 8+ hour auction draft that is standard fare for ottoneu leagues (it gets quicker in subsequent years). We chose to break this draft into two parts, and completed the first four-hour block last night.
Chad Young will have a general recap of the draft a bit later, but in the meantime, I want to pass along some thoughts about my strategy and observations. Because, you know, fantasy baseball is a selfish endeavor, and even if nobody else cares about my fantasy team, I sure as hell do and I’m going to make you all suffer with me.*
*Actually, I think there were some good take-away points from last night’s draft about player valuation and draft strategy. So hopefully my observations will actually be useful, and not just self-aggrandizing.
Without further ado, let’s get on to the draft. I have three main points I’d like to focus on, which as general strategies should make sense in any league format.
