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While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s nearly the end of May. Roughly one third of the way through the regular season. Already, we’ve had our fair share of surprises. New main characters are scattered across your league, or all concentrated on the roster of a sure to be smug top seed.

Whether it’s the manager who added Davis Martin early or the one who was utterly convinced by Jordan Walker and his offseason with Driveline, they’re certainly sitting pretty so far. 

For every one of those managers, there’s the one who missed out on Corey Seager in the draft, bought low on the veteran slugger, watched him go hitless in the seven games after trading for him, begged for him to hit the phantom IL, and then knowingly grimaced while moving him to the actual IL at the end of last week due to back tightness. 

And another who started their draft with Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet instead of Paul Skenes. 

The randomness of baseball, fantasy or otherwise, is part of what makes the game so frustratingly intoxicating.  Read the rest of this entry »

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

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While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are seven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 3 Overview

Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker smashed five dingers last week and now leads the Majors in home runs (seven).

Oneil Cruz and Jakob Marsee each stole three bases in Week 3 games. Cruz swiped six total bags last week and enters Week 4 tied with Drake Baldwin atop the FanGraphs 12-team Player Rater ($41.7).

James Wood earned 12 hits and walked six times (only 4 Ks) in 28 plate appearances. He slashed .545/.655/1.091 last week. The Nationals are scheduled to play seven games in each of the next two weeks.

A few hitters with rough weeks: Mark Vientos (0-17), Michael Busch (1-20), Munetaka Murakami (1-20, 9 Ks), Adolis García (1-20, 8 Ks), and Josh Naylor (1-19), whose batting average is down to .102 and has no extra-base hits.

Last week’s saves leaders (three apiece) were Lucas Erceg and popular waiver add, Jakob Junis. Last week’s popular add, Bryan Baker, earned two saves but served up three earned runs in three innings.

Starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ryan Feltner gave up the most earned runs (10 each), though Scherzer pitched 4.1 innings and Feltner 9.1. Sandy Alcantara was roughed up by the Tigers (10 H, 7 ER in 6 IP) after three consecutive gems.

Of the 31 pitchers who drew two starts last week, five earned wins in both of their starts: Joe Ryan, Germán Márquez, Taj Bradley, Michael Wacha and José Soriano.

As we did last week, let’s review the top trending acquisitions for Fantrax (waivers) and the NFBC 12-team OC (blind bid FAAB), but let’s add in Yahoo’s top adds as well. Soriano is the early fantasy MVP and the top overall player on the Player Rater ($51.5).

Roster % is the current percentage of leagues rostering the player; +/-  is the percentage of leagues the player was added in the previous week

Jorge Soler was added in 25% of Fantrax leagues. His roster percentage is only up to 68%, which seems low. A healthy Soler is a great source of power, though he’ll certainly do his part to drain our batting averages.

% Added is the percentage of leagues that added the player; AWB stands for average winning bid

Braves pitcher Didier Fuentes was awesome in spring training (13 IP, 1 ER, 18:1 K:BB) and has 15 strikeouts with five walks and one run allowed in two Triple-A starts. He drew the highest average winning bid among SPs in NFBC OCs ($52) though is still available in 3% of leagues. With Reynaldo Lopez’s suspension shortened and him slated to start on Tuesday, the Braves won’t need another starter until the following week. Those who acquired Fuentes hope that he joins the rotation then.

Relievers

Jakob Junis was the top target among relievers this weekend. He popped onto our radars on Monday when he earned a save. He did it again on Tuesday and once more Sunday, just a few hours ahead of Sunday evening’s FAAB deadline. Robert Garcia and Chris Martin were supposed to be the ninth-inning co-committee, but they played themselves out of future opportunities, at least for now. Righty Cole Winn and lefty Jacob Latz (converted reliever) have moved up in the hierarchy as late-inning setup men. Winn locked down his first career save on Wednesday and a hold on Sunday. Winn hasn’t allowed a run in eight appearances and sports a 14.8% swinging-strike rate. He has better stuff than Junis, but Junis has superb control (6% career walk rate) and is a dependable veteran who appears to be extending job security in this new role. He spent the bulk of his career as a starter. Over the last two seasons, as a reliever with the Giants and Guardians, Junis owns a 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 20.1% K and 4.9% BB.

Riley O’Brien (added in 17% of Fantrax leagues) has been stellar this season — 4 SV, 1 W, 1.41 ERA (2.05 xFIP), 8 K with no walks or earned runs allowed in eight appearances.

Joel Kuhnel is a new face in the fantasy sphere and is potentially in the mix for save chances with the Athletics. He closed out Sunday’s contest (1-0 over the Mets), his second save of the season. Mark Leiter Jr. (Tuesday, March 31) and Hogan Harris (Thursday, April 9) are the only other relievers to earn saves for the A’s so far. Kuhnel is 31 years old and a big guy (6’5”, 290) who has one full season in the Majors (6.36 ERA in 58 IP with the Reds in 2022), but has otherwise toiled in the Minors for different organizations. Kuhnel and Harris (the bullpen’s only lefty) will likely share save opps in the short term. Justin Sterner is their most consistent reliever since 2025 (his rookie season) and could get into the mix of save chances soon. Kuhnel has more fantasy value in 15-team leagues and can be ignored in 10/12-teamers for now, especially with the A’s playing at home all week.

Starting Pitchers

Jeffrey Springs is almost three years removed from his Tommy John surgery. A converted starter, Springs had a dominant 2022 season (2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 26%K, 5.6% BB in 135.1 IP) before his 2023 season ended abruptly. He joined the A’s in 2025 and managed a 4.11 ERA (4.60 SIERA) in 171 innings, though his strikeout rate dipped under 20% for the first time. His arsenal isn’t overpowering, but his changeup is top-notch and he has always exhibited above-average control. Springs has pitched well through three starts (1.47, 0.76) though it won’t be all sunshine and rainbows this season. Springs has been lucky (.170 BABIP, 3.91 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA) and negative regression will undoubtedly rear its ugly head — specifically, in the 100+ degree Sacramento weather this summer. Springs hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season (1.47 HR/9 last season). He is slated to make his second and third home starts of the season this week, against the Rangers and White Sox. Springs could be a mainstay on 12-team rosters and maintain a sub-4.00 ERA for the season.

Joey Cantillo’s breakout doesn’t seem to be appreciated by the Yahoo community (only 38% rostered). The crafty lefty with the occasional case of the location yips has 20 strikeouts and seven walks through his first three starts (14.2 IP). His cutter and changeup are plus offerings. I don’t foresee Cantillo having issues maintaining his rotation spot with the Guardians, but I can’t say the same about a sub-10% walk rate.

Giants starter Landen Roupp is off to a nice start, and perhaps even a bit unlucky (.304 BABIP, 3.24 ERA vs. 2.67 xFIP, 2.95 SIERA). It’s unlikely that Roupp will end the season with an ERA better than 3.50, but it’s certainly possible. Roupp often issued too many free passes in his starts last season, so it’s nice to see his walk rate down (from 9.5% to 7.2%), albeit just three starts. He will likely have his hands full in the next two weeks. He is expected to face the Reds in Great American Ball Park on Wednesday and is lined up in the following week to face the Dodgers, at home.

Javier Assad may be one-and-done after this start in Philadelphia if Matthew Boyd remains on track to return this weekend.

Hitters

Nasim Nuñez is all speed and nothing else. Make sure you only add him on squads where you don’t already have Chandler Simpson or José Caballero.

Angel Martínez had an incredible week — 13-42, 7 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 4 SB, .310/.383/.452. He mostly starts and bats first or second against left-handed pitchers, but earned a start against a righty on Friday. Not sure we can call him an everyday player yet, so let’s see if he earns some starts against righties this week. When we added Martínez over the weekend, the Guardians were slated to face up 4 LHPs. That has since changed with the Orioles optioning lefty starter Cade Povich in favor of ol’ gascan righty, Dean Kremer. The Guardians may only square off against two lefty starters now.

Diamondbacks rookie Jose Fernandez has started six straight games, at first base, third base, and designated hitter. He has earned playing time with somewhat steady production and because of injuries to Pavin Smith and Carlos Santana. By the way, Fernandez was seven years old when Santana made him Major League debut.

Drop of the Week

It may be time to move on from Astros interim closer Bryan Abreu. Abreu did not allow a run in his appearance on Sunday, the first time in seven tries. His velocity drop is worrisome, lefty Bryan King has been exceptional, and Josh Hader may be back before the end of the month.

Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are seven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

For my final article of the preseason, I decided to assign myself the difficult task of identifying my favorite fantasy pick from each Major League team. Some teams have several candidates, while others I have to hold my nose for (cough, cough, the Nats). You’ll see players from throughout the player pool, as my choices aren’t necessarily tied to their market value. They are players I have been targeting and drafting this winter and spring.

Here are the leagues I’m in this season:

• 22 NFBC Gladiators (roto, 15-team, 23 rounds, no bench)
• 7 NFBC Draft Champions (roto, 15-team, 50 rounds, draft and hold)
• 4 NFBC Online Champions (roto, 12-team, 30 rounds, with FAAB)
• 2 NFBC Main Events (roto, 15-team, 30 rounds, with FAAB)
• SCARF (EARTH industry league on NFBC; same setup as the Main Event)
• TGFBI (Justin Mason’s industry league on NFBC, same setup as the Main Event)
• FSGA Experts Champions League (14-team roto, partnered with colleague Joe Orrico)
• Tout Wars (roto, OBP instead of AVG, 15-team, draft and hold)

Yes, I love helping people win at fantasy baseball, but I also love to play it. You might think I’m crazy, but please note that only nine of them are FAAB leagues. The Gladiator is a hybrid best ball format where I don’t even have to set the lineups. I won’t even mention the 100+ best ball leagues I’m in on other sites. Again, no management is necessary – just draft and hope for production and good health luck.

Let’s get into it. Listed with each player is their current NFBC Online Championship and Yahoo average draft positions.

Toronto Blue Jays – Kazuma Okamoto, 1B/3B (NFBC: 196, Yahoo: 166)

Many older players from overseas have a difficult time adjusting to the Major Leagues. If spring training is any indication, Okamoto seems to be adjusting just fine (.316/.435/.632). He’s going to be an integral part of this offense. Oh, and Sporer loves him, too. Honorable mentions to Daulton Varsho (30+ homers if he stays healthy) and Cody Ponce 폰세, though his ADP has leaped over 100 spots over the last month.

Boston Red Sox – Roman Anthony, OF (50, 46)

I strongly believe that Anthony is a future Hall of Famer and that he will be a top 20 hitter in his first full season as the leadoff hitter for a strong Red Sox offense. Many fantasy analysts and managers believe that 2026 is the Year of the Breakout for Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela. Now imagine if Jarren Duran produces like it’s 2024, Trevor Story avoids fluky injuries, and Willson Contreras exceeds 600 plate appearances for the first time. That’s a lot of “ifs”, but with that pitching staff depth and bullpen, this could be a magical season in Fenway.

New York Yankees – José Caballero, 2B/3B/SS/OF (196, 189)

Most of the Yankees are fairly priced, but fully priced. The New York Fantasy Tax is a real thing – everyone knows proud New Yorkers get their guys. Caballero is a swipes maestro who has been working hard to improve as a hitter this offseason, and is eligible at almost every fantasy position. He’s a great hitter to bring into your lineup when someone in your starting lineup suffers a midweek injury or you need some stolen bases. An honorable mention to Carlos Rodón, who is one of my favorite mid-to-late-round stashes, and is on track to return well before Gerrit Cole.

Baltimore Orioles – Five-Way Tie

My rule of thumb for 2026 drafts, if you have any remaining: when in doubt, draft the Orioles hitter. In AL Bold Predictions on FTN, I prognosticate that the Orioles will be the fourth team in history to hit 300 home runs. I have a Gunnar Henderson–Pete Alonso 1-2 punch on several teams, and would happily do it again. Colton Cowser, Trevor Rogers, and Shane Baz are the other three O’s I’ve been targeting. Well, I guess I like their pitching too (just not their horrendous bullpen).

Tampa Bay Rays – Griffin Jax, RP (149, 198)

Cream rises to the top in real life, and often does in fantasy as well. After a rocky rookie season in 2021 (6.37 ERA in 82 innings, mostly as a starter), Jax has slowly turned into one of the best relievers in the game. Over the last two seasons, only two qualified relievers have a higher swinging-strike rate than Jax’s 18.3% – Josh Hader (20.8%) and Mason Miller (20.3%). With Edwin Uceta ailing and Garrett Cleavinger a lefty, it’s only a matter of time for Kevin Cash to let Jax run with the closer’s job, similar to Pete Fairbanks last year.

Cleveland Guardians – Chase DeLauter, OF (269, 198)

Not a team loaded with fantasy goodness, but DeLauter stands out. A healthy DeLauter is a fantasy pick with massive upside, though his price has been steadily rising – out of the 300s and up several rounds, due to a hot spring. Parker Messick is a strong end-game target, though I haven’t been able to land many shares. I wouldn’t be shocked if he out-earns last season’s Major League walks leader, Gavin Williams.

Detroit Tigers – N/A

No offense to Tiger fans, but they are not a very exciting group from a fantasy perspective. Of course, that doesn’t mean that managers won’t be able to squeeze out some fantasy profit from some of these players. Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball. I have not often been in a position to draft him – and when I have, I usually target the elite first-round hitter. Sadly, I have no Skubal shares. The move to Detroit is a great one for Framber Valdez, on paper, but I don’t have great vibes on him this season. Jack Flaherty can be spectacular in one start, and serve up a half-dozen earned runs in the next – I can’t stomach that volatility. Top prospect Kevin McGonigle made the team and will be an exciting player. This is one I likely missed the boat on – especially recently, as his price continues to soar. The best bangs for the buck are Dillon Dingler and Gleyber Torres, with ADPs in the mid-200s.

Kansas City Royals – Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B (77, 81)

I highlighted Vinnie P in my bold predictions article earlier this month, noting that smashing 40 dingers may not be quite so bold. Kauffman Stadium’s outfield fences are moving in being lowered, which should bode well for most of their hitters. In fact, there are quite a few 30+ HR candidates on the squad. Their pitching staff is solid, and the bullpen has been upgraded from last season. The Royals are my pick to win the AL Central.

Chicago White Sox – Austin Hays, OF (341, N/A)

Would you believe me if I told you that the White Sox player with the highest ADP this season is their new closer who has never been a closer for a full season and posted a 13.8% walk rate last season? I have a couple of Seranthony Domínguez shares, but I don’t feel great about it. I do feel good about a late-round Austin Hays, who should be an everyday hitter and respectable producer in the middle of their lineup.

Minnesota Twins – Matt Wallner, OF (297, N/A)

Wallner is an elite power hitter with some past oblique issues. But Wallner is only focused on the future, which involves soaking those obliques before sleep, and then smashing some baseballs. Wallner and his 16% barrel rate can produce a 30-HR, 85-RBI season as an everyday player for the Twins. Management doesn’t intend to platoon him at this time. Mick Abel has been flying up draft boards, but alas, I have not been able to sneak a share yet. Josh Bell has been a bargain all season (ADP 370), and it’s almost criminal to not click on his name in a draft where you need a CI with power.

The Athletics – Jacob Wilson윌슨, SS (201, 161)

There are so many A’s to choose from. We’re expecting the world from the likes of Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, and even Lawrence Butler and his 94.3% healed knees. This is the type of offense that will keep opposing pitchers awake the night before the game, and give them nightmares in their sleep after the game. Wilson will play his part in disrupting Circadian rhythms as a potential .320-80-17-70-13 bat this season. The AL Batting Title goes through Mr. Wilson this year.

Houston Astros – Mike Burrows, SP (224, 207)

The former Pittsburgh Pirates’ prospect will find himself comfortable down in the Lone Star state. Thankfully, he won’t have to be the lone star in the rotation with ace Hunter Brown there. Some of us were witness to his official breakout, which occurred after the last All-Star break where Burrows produced a 3.27 ERA (3.19 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, 25.1% K, and a 6.4% BB in 10 starts and two multi-relief, piggyback spots. Burrows will make his official Astros debut on Friday against the Angels, as the pitcher slated second in his rotation.

Seattle Mariners – Brendan Donovan, 2B (265, 188)

We don’t only need stars to win fantasy baseball leagues, we need support roles as well. In this loaded lineup of stars, Donovan shall be the table-setter; the elite contact rate guy who provides above-average production, just not with a barrage of homers or bag thefts. “Better in real baseball” is what they say about Donovan. I wonder what they’ll be saying this October when the leadoff man scores triple-digit runs and establishes himself as the glue of this offense. Only time will tell and I’ll be ready to listen to the audio book on my long drive to Thanksgiving dinner.

Los Angeles Angels – Logan O’Hoppe, C (250, 196)

We need to set some thresholds for the Driveline guys, but keep it simple. Can we measure it simply? Like, if O’Hoppe hits 30 home runs, then it’s one point for Driveline, or something like that. For drafters in one-catcher leagues who are light in roto power categories and need to fill their catcher slot before the draft ends might be thrilled with the big bopper, who I am certain has another level of production marinating and ready to be served up in 2026. Wait, we forgot to cook! O’Hoppe will do just that with elite framework for those called third strikes. It’s rumored that LOH knows the ABS blind spot.

Texas Rangers – Jack Leiter, SP (239, 209)

Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager need each other. If one is hurt for a prolonged period, the other likely won’t earn or exceed their fantasy value. Both have been big targets, but the Langford price has skyrocketed with his red-hot spring, up to 33 in 12-team NFBC leagues. We saw glimpses of Leiter’s potential and dominance in his first full season and all said, “if only he could cut down on the free passes.” He’s been doing just that in the spring. If he could pull a Pivetta and dip that walk rate down to the 8-9% range, we’ll be laughing all the way to the roto bank.

New York Mets – Luis Robert Jr., OF (107, 144)

This was a tough one because this team is loaded with fantasy goodness. Robert Jr. is one of my highest rostered hitters. He’s had a rough few years filled with losing, multiple managers, and myriad of injuries. This is his fresh start. He’s an above average base-stealer, an excellent defender, and likely did not hit 38 homers in 2023 by accident. Devin Williams, Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Francisco Alvarez, Jorge Polanco, and Marcus Semien are other Mets I’ve frequently targeted in drafts. It’s an offense we want to invest in, and they may very well break the curse in 2026.

Atlanta Braves – Ronald Acuña Jr., OF (5, 10)

Acuña produced the best roto season in history (2023) before Shohei Ohtani topped him the following season. With the Braves offensive band healthy and back together, sparks (and balls) should fly. The big issue, of course, is the pitching rotation. Their current “IL staff” with Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach looks better than the quintet the Braves are rolling out there to begin the 2026 season. I’ve drafted Acuña over Juan Soto at the 4-spot quite frequently this draft season, and even took him over Bobby Witt Jr. at the 1.03 in my latest draft. Austin Riley and Matt Olson have been targets as well.

Philadelphia Phillies – 3-Way-Tie: Cristopher Sánchez, SP (24, 27), Jesús Luzardo, SP (69, 81), Zack Wheeler, SP (110, 137)

I’ve had one rule with starting pitchers this winter: don’t leave a draft without a Phillies or Mariners arm. This was a nasty trio last season. Per our Player Rater, Sánchez was the overall SP6, Wheeler the SP14, and Luzardo the SP30. Luzardo’s value was slightly weighed down by his ratios (3.96, 1.22), though he ranked fifth in the Majors in strikeouts with 216.

Miami Marlins – Max Meyer, SP (256, N/A)

Though I have a few shares of Jakob Marsee, my favorite Marlins’ target has been Meyer. He only threw seven innings in spring, but they were filthy. He struck out 12, walked one, and did not allow an earned run. Meyer is incredibly talented, but has dealt with his fair share of injuries over the last few years. The key is that he is healthy now. Drafters have taken notice as his ADP has risen over 100 spots (to 257 in OCs) over the last two months.

Washington Nationals – N/A

My only true Nats’ target this winter was Harry Ford, who will undoubtedly crush in Triple-A while Keibert Ruiz keeps his job warm for him. It’s difficult to invest in a third-round James Wood, regardless of the obvious power and upside. His 221 strikeouts in 2025 were the third most ever, behind Mark Reynolds (223 in 2009) and Adam Dunn (222 in 2012). Top prospect Dylan Crews was just optioned to Triple-A, and CJ Abrams might need a chaperone for the evenings before road games, so he can be fully rested for a game of professional baseball. Don’t get me started on the pitchers and their closer committee, led by Clayton Beeter and his 17.3% walk rate last season. Though he’s moving in the right direction this spring (11.5% walk rate, yippee!) Though we all know that anything is possible in the Year of Our (Brad) Lord.

Milwaukee Brewers – Brandon Tie: Brandon Woodruff, SP ( 161, 131), Brandon Sproat, SP (323 ,N/A)

There’s something in the pitching water in Milwaukee, and we all want a taste. Woodruff was an early-draft-season target and Sproat more recently, since being traded to the Brewers. Let’s hope Woodruff can stay healthy and that Sproat can deliver on the promise and hype from his days as a New York Mets’ prospect.

Chicago Cubs – Nico Hoerner, 2B (99, 98)

I don’t always target an early second baseman this draft season, but when I do, it’s usually Hoerner around his ADP. It takes the proper power-heavy build through the first few rounds – one where Hoerner is the perfect complement with his assistance in three categories – batting average, runs, and stolen bases.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Konnor Griffin, SS (185, 191)

His price rose, and then it dropped. Now it’s reasonable, especially with us all aware of the Pirates’ front office’s tendencies of being cheap, maximizing service time, and keeping their top prospects down. Griffin is going to make an impact in the big leagues as soon as he is promoted, which I expect to happen sometime in early May. He is one of the few hitters worth stashing on shallow benches, especially if he is available in your last-minute drafts after 200 ADP.

Cincinnati Reds – Matt McLain, 2B (128, 182)

He was a star at UCLA, and a budding star in his rookie season with the Reds in 2023, though his .290 average was clearly inflated by an irregularly high BABIP of .385. He was mostly a bust as a top 100 pick last season, and was hovering in the 180-200 ADP range for most of the winter. Fast forward to this spring where he has been the hottest hitter on the planet (.529/.571/1.020), and suddenly his NFBC ADP is closer to 100. Folks who invested early are pleased. He will go through prolonged slumps and strike out a ton, but has massive upside and potential to out-earn even his current draft cost.

St. Louis Cardinals – Iván Herrera, UT/C (182, 167)

Herrera was an unassuming, slap-hitter in the minors, who gradually improved his power metrics every season since. Last year was the breakout, as he hit .284 with 19 dingers, flexing above-average power (91.2 EV, 11% BRL, 47.4% HH). Health is the biggest question mark, and the one risk with drafting him. I haven’t landed him in drafts as much as I would have liked – he’s my ultimate FOMO guy. Herrera should earn catcher eligibility sometime in late April or early May.

San Francisco Giants -Tie: Ryan Walker, RP (132, 189), Jung Hoo Lee 이정후, OF (300, 192)

Walker has flown under the radar for most of draft season because there hasn’t been much written about the Giants’ bullpen. His draft cost has been affordable because he wasn’t very good in his first full season as their closer. There isn’t much competition for the ninth-inning gig in San Francisco, and Walker has had a strong spring. Jung Hoo Lee is one of my “one year early” guys – my most rostered hitter last season. Moving back to his original position in the KBO (right field) should make him more comfortable. He won’t wow in any particular category, though he’s a sneaky candidate to hit over .300 this season.

San Diego Padres – Michael King, SP (136, 140)

I love Mason Miller as much as anyone, but I’ve haven’t been comfortable drafting him at his second-round ADP, outside of Gladiator contests back in December. King has been my favorite Padres’ target as a 10-round SP3 in 15-team leagues with the potential to help anchor my staff’s ERA and strikeout categories.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Jordan Lawlar, 3B (257, N/A)

Hello, my name is Vlad Sedler – President of the Jordan Lawlar Fan Club. We all have our biases, and Lawlar is one of my biggest. He’s a former top prospect with the potential for five-category contribution and will gain outfield eligibility soon. The knock on him can’t be ignored – the kid has not been able to stay healthy. If he does though, it’s Profit Central.

Colorado Rockies – Brenton Doyle, OF (166, 183)

The only Rockies player in the top 100 ADP is Hunter Goodman. If we scroll down a few rounds, the next man up is Brenton Doyle, who has been reasonably priced all draft season in the 160-200 ADP range. Doyle broke out in 2024 (82 R, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 30 SB), then had a rough follow-up in 2025 as he dealt with a family tragedy early in the season. He looked good after the All-Star break, hitting .282 with 8 HR and 9 SB in 56 games (207 PA), and has had a strong spring.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Kyle Tucker, OF (13, 11)

Saving my home team for last, we all know the fantasy juggernaut that the Dodgers are, though many of them are expensive – six of their players have average draft positions in the top 70. I do believe in a Mookie Betts bounce-back, though I usually target pitchers in his draft range and also usually have a shortstop by the time he’s a draft consideration around his ADP. I have more shares of Roki Sasaki than probably anyone in the NFBC, most from December and January non-FAAB leagues. I can be stubborn, but must also be realistic: he appears broken and unconfident, and may need a stint in the minors to help him. As for my top Dodgers target, that’s newcomer Kyle Tucker, who I believe will stay healthy, hit at least 30 home runs and make a run for the NL RBI crown.

Hope you’ve enjoyed my preseason content, and I look forward to serving you with good advice during the season. Opening Day is almost here, so let’s Play Ball!

“It’s been seven hours and fifteen days / since you took my drafts awayyyy”

Sinead O’Connor may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster. Since this specific article’s topic is starting pitchers, the components have been slightly adjusted:

Health and Durability
Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control
Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)
Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

ADP Cluster: Round 16 Upside Starting Pitchers

These are starting pitchers drafted in Round 16 (ADP 180-192) in the NFBC Online Championship (OC) over the last four days (20 drafts).

• Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals (ADP 188.7)
• Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs (189.2)
• Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays (190.2)
• Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles (191.5)
• Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians (192)

All in this cluster were highly touted prospects who offer massive fantasy profit potential this season. Horton, McClanahan, and Baz were all real-life former first round draft picks. Bubic and Bibee were top pitching prospects in their respective organizations at one time. Would we be surprised if one or two of them ended up as a top 10 SP in 2026? This is the range Bryan Woo (SP4) was drafted from last spring.

Health and Durability

McClanahan turns 29 next month, and Bubic will be 29 this summer. Bibee just turned 27, Baz turns 27 in June, and Horton will be 25 in August. Bubic and McClanahan are both southpaws.

Kris Bubic was drafted in 2018, made 10 starts in his rookie season (2020), then averaged 130 innings per season from 2021-2022, mostly as a starter with an ERA over 5.00. He had Tommy John surgery early in the 2023 season, and returned late in 2024, missing the majority of both seasons. Previously a starter, Bubic was a dominant reliever in the final two months of 2024, then officially broke out in 2025 (2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 20 starts) before getting shut down in late July for a left rotator cuff strain. Bubic is healthy heading into the 2026 season. This spring, he has allowed just one run with three walks and 10 strikeouts over three abbreviated starts (eight innings).

Cade Horton has an extensive and serious injury history. He tore his UCL before his freshman year at the University of Oklahoma in 2021. His 2024 season was lost due to a right shoulder strain that May and he did not pitch again until the winter. Last season, he dealt with finger blisters, fractured his right rib by (cough) coughing, and was shut down before the playoffs. Horton’s 118 innings last season was his first time over 90 ever. This spring, he tossed two scoreless innings in his first appearance (February 24), served up six runs and two walks in 3.2 IP on March 9, and struck out 10 with just one run and one walk in latest start earlier this week.

Shane McClanahan last pitched in the Majors in 2023. He missed his freshman year of college recovering from TJS (2016), missed 17 days with back tightness in July of 2023, and had his second TJS in August of that same year. In his final ramp-up start of camp last March, McClanahan suffered a nerve injury in his triceps, and had surgery on it in August. His fastball velocity in Sunday’s exhibition start (94.8 mph) was down (from his previous 97), but he looked dominant, punching out seven Pirates and didn’t allow a hit in 3.2 innings.

Shane Baz has spent more time dealing with or recovering from right elbow troubles than pitching, since being drafted in 2017. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in March of 2022, returned in June, and went back on the 60-day IL the following month. In late September of 2022, he underwent Tommy John surgery. Baz missed all of  2023, and returned in May of 2024. He made 10 starts in Triple-A and 14 for the Rays. Last season, he managed to stay healthy, throwing 166.1 innings over 31 starts.

Tanner Bibee has had the least amount of arm troubles of the bunch. His only IL stint in three Major League seasons was in his rookie year (2023), missing 15 days with right hip inflammation. Bibee dealt with some shoulder tightness in 2024, and has had to leave starts early with severe leg cramps a few times in the last two seasons – an issue that has plagued him since his college days. Bibee has averaged 166 innings per season over the last three, while Baz, McClanahan, and Bubic have averaged 174.1 innings combined over that same span.

If there’s a cluster we don’t need to see health grades for, it’s this one. But if you’re curious, here they are, courtesy of Jeff Zimmerman, from Eno Sarris’ article at The Athletic. McClanahan does not have a health grade listed.

• Tanner Bibee – 96%
• Cade Horton – 83%
• Shane Baz – 74%
• Kris Bubic – 72%

Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control

Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)

With much of this group missing significant time over the last few seasons, it is difficult to compare recent results. I’ll combine skills and ratio expectations into one section here. For this cluster, I’m using ATC’s projections, since it is an aggregate model. Included in the table below are the pitchers’ current ADP and their ADP from February, over 66 NFBC OC drafts.

Bubic is a lefty who utilized a four-pitch mix last season (four-seam fastball, changeup, sweeper, slider), and occasionally threw a sinker. His four primary pitches were all plus offerings, though he doesn’t overpower opposing hitters (92.1 mph FB). Bubic produced a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 8.2% walk rate in his 20 starts – rates in line with his projections for 2026. He is more likely to produce a sub-4.00 ERA than a sub 1.20 WHIP. He allowed only six home runs in 116.1 innings (0.46 HR/9), a feat that would be difficult to repeat in a similar number of innings, particularly with Kansas City moving fences in.

Usually, a 1.4 differential between one’s ERA (2.67) and xFIP (4.27) in the prior season would push fantasy analysts and managers away and bucket a pitcher into the “lucky and due to regress” category. That’s not the case with Horton, who has held steadfastly with a 189 ADP since early February. His underlying metrics against lefties and righties were similar, though the one standout split was BABIP (.291 vs. LHHs, .219 vs. RHHs). He utilized his sweeper primary on righties (.171 BAA, 25.7% K), and his changeup more frequently against lefties (.115 BAA, 32.8% K). Horton averaged nearly 97 mph on his four-seam fastball. He was incredible at Wrigley Field (1.63 ERA, .251 wOBA). He generated league-average swings and misses (11% SwStr), but that mark hovered in the 14-15% range in the minors. Expect some improvement there closer to the 12-13% range in 2026.

Shane Baz has a similar ADP as last draft season. What has kept his ADP stable? Probably his poor ERA (4.87) in 2025, and slight market concern about making half of his starts in Oriole Park instead of Tropicana Field. That ERA was a nearly a full run higher than his xFIP (3.88) and SIERA (3.95), with the majority of the damage occurring at hitter-friendly George Steinbrenner Field (5.90 ERA, .355 wOBA), while posting respectable rates on the road (3.86, .303). He unloaded his four-seamer at a 44% clip close to evenly against righties and lefties with an average velocity of 97 mph. Baz did not fare well with a new cutter last season (.412 wOBA, 16% K), but he mastered his knuckle curve with a sharp downward bite that punched batters out at a rate of 35.2%. Baz developed a two-seam fastball in the offseason.

Tanner Bibee is the least “electric” of the group and has lost quite a bit of market confidence after a disappointing season (4.24 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) where draft helium took him as high as the fourth round of 15-team NFBC leagues last March. Going into last draft season, he was labeled as a dependable SP2 after an impressive first two years in the majors with a high strikeout rate (25.5%), low walk rate (6.6%), and one of only seven qualified pitchers between 2023 and 2024 with an ERA of 3.25 or lower. In 2025, Bibee greatly reduced his FB usage (from 43% to 28%), but that offering was still frequently mashed (47% hard-hit, .372 wOBA). He served up dingers at a higher rate (1.33 HR/9) than the past two seasons (.97) despite a six percent decrease in fly balls.

McClanahan last threw a regular season pitch in August of 2023 and is anxiously awaiting that first start in nearly three years. In his 74 career starts, McClanahan sports a 3.02 ERA (3.15 xFIP), a 1.10 WHIP, 28% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. He will be under a strict innings limit this season, with a target of around 150. He is expected to make his Major League return in the Rays’ fifth game, which will be March 31 in Milwaukee.

Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

The Cubs defense is projected as one of the best in 2026, which is great for Horton. The Guardians (for Bibee) are expected to be strong defensively, and Progressive Field is an offense-suppressing environment.

The Rays moving back to their pitcher-friendly home stadium doesn’t move the needle much for McClanahan’s market price. If he’s on his A-game, where he pitches doesn’t matter.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has been tougher on pitchers since they moved the walls in before last season. The HR Park Factor there last season was 121, second highest behind Dodger Stadium (137). Baz won’t stand a chance holding his HR/9 below 1.00, but can still produce a 4.00 ERA and at least a strikeout per inning. The O’s boast a powerhouse offense and should provide ample run support.

The walls moving in Kauffman Stadium shouldn’t impact Bubic’s HR rate as much as someone like his ace rotation-mate, Cole Ragans, but it might be too much to ask for a repeat of Bubic’s masterful, partial season. The Royals’ infield defense on the left side is bolstered by Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia, but is questionable at the keystone with Jonathan India expected to move back there full time.

It is difficult to assess these bullpens and how they might move the needle on our valuations of starting pitchers in this cluster. The bullpen I’m most confident in is Kansas City’s. They added Matt Strahm in the offseason, hope to have a full season from Lucas Erceg, and have several other effective arms: lefties Daniel Lynch IV and veteran Bailey Falter, and righties John Schreiber, Nick Mears and possibly a new and improved Alex Lange. The Orioles’ bullpen is scary and include a couple of names even I’ve never heard of.

Recommendation (with target grade)

Talent-wise, this cluster of pitchers is an A-, but if we’re collectively grading them with durability in mind, the grade drops down to a solid B.

Cade Horton (B) is the pitcher who’s risen up my personal rankings the most since November. The more I dig in, the more I want to target him in drafts.

Tanner Bibee (B-)  is the most stable of the group, but with the lowest upside. Sometimes that’s a good thing in fantasy.

I’d love to see Shane McClanahan (B-) bounce all the way back. My main issue with him is his recent draft helium, which may soar into the top 120 overall with another solid spring outing.

Kris Bubic (B+) and Shane Baz (A-) are my two favorite targets in this group. The ride might be bumpy with Baz, but I believe 2026 will be his breakout season.