“It’s been seven hours and fifteen days / since you took my drafts awayyyy”

Sinead O’Connor may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster. Since this specific article’s topic is starting pitchers, the components have been slightly adjusted:

Health and Durability
Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control
Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)
Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

ADP Cluster: Round 16 Upside Starting Pitchers

These are starting pitchers drafted in Round 16 (ADP 180-192) in the NFBC Online Championship (OC) over the last four days (20 drafts).

• Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals (ADP 188.7)
• Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs (189.2)
• Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays (190.2)
• Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles (191.5)
• Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians (192)

All in this cluster were highly touted prospects who offer massive fantasy profit potential this season. Horton, McClanahan, and Baz were all real-life former first round draft picks. Bubic and Bibee were top pitching prospects in their respective organizations at one time. Would we be surprised if one or two of them ended up as a top 10 SP in 2026? This is the range Bryan Woo (SP4) was drafted from last spring.

Health and Durability

McClanahan turns 29 next month, and Bubic will be 29 this summer. Bibee just turned 27, Baz turns 27 in June, and Horton will be 25 in August. Bubic and McClanahan are both southpaws.

Kris Bubic was drafted in 2018, made 10 starts in his rookie season (2020), then averaged 130 innings per season from 2021-2022, mostly as a starter with an ERA over 5.00. He had Tommy John surgery early in the 2023 season, and returned late in 2024, missing the majority of both seasons. Previously a starter, Bubic was a dominant reliever in the final two months of 2024, then officially broke out in 2025 (2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 20 starts) before getting shut down in late July for a left rotator cuff strain. Bubic is healthy heading into the 2026 season. This spring, he has allowed just one run with three walks and 10 strikeouts over three abbreviated starts (eight innings).

Cade Horton has an extensive and serious injury history. He tore his UCL before his freshman year at the University of Oklahoma in 2021. His 2024 season was lost due to a right shoulder strain that May and he did not pitch again until the winter. Last season, he dealt with finger blisters, fractured his right rib by (cough) coughing, and was shut down before the playoffs. Horton’s 118 innings last season was his first time over 90 ever. This spring, he tossed two scoreless innings in his first appearance (February 24), served up six runs and two walks in 3.2 IP on March 9, and struck out 10 with just one run and one walk in latest start earlier this week.

Shane McClanahan last pitched in the Majors in 2023. He missed his freshman year of college recovering from TJS (2016), missed 17 days with back tightness in July of 2023, and had his second TJS in August of that same year. In his final ramp-up start of camp last March, McClanahan suffered a nerve injury in his triceps, and had surgery on it in August. His fastball velocity in Sunday’s exhibition start (94.8 mph) was down (from his previous 97), but he looked dominant, punching out seven Pirates and didn’t allow a hit in 3.2 innings.

Shane Baz has spent more time dealing with or recovering from right elbow troubles than pitching, since being drafted in 2017. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in March of 2022, returned in June, and went back on the 60-day IL the following month. In late September of 2022, he underwent Tommy John surgery. Baz missed all of  2023, and returned in May of 2024. He made 10 starts in Triple-A and 14 for the Rays. Last season, he managed to stay healthy, throwing 166.1 innings over 31 starts.

Tanner Bibee has had the least amount of arm troubles of the bunch. His only IL stint in three Major League seasons was in his rookie year (2023), missing 15 days with right hip inflammation. Bibee dealt with some shoulder tightness in 2024, and has had to leave starts early with severe leg cramps a few times in the last two seasons – an issue that has plagued him since his college days. Bibee has averaged 166 innings per season over the last three, while Baz, McClanahan, and Bubic have averaged 174.1 innings combined over that same span.

If there’s a cluster we don’t need to see health grades for, it’s this one. But if you’re curious, here they are, courtesy of Jeff Zimmerman, from Eno Sarris’ article at The Athletic. McClanahan does not have a health grade listed.

• Tanner Bibee – 96%
• Cade Horton – 83%
• Shane Baz – 74%
• Kris Bubic – 72%

Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control

Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)

With much of this group missing significant time over the last few seasons, it is difficult to compare recent results. I’ll combine skills and ratio expectations into one section here. For this cluster, I’m using ATC’s projections, since it is an aggregate model. Included in the table below are the pitchers’ current ADP and their ADP from February, over 66 NFBC OC drafts.

Bubic is a lefty who utilized a four-pitch mix last season (four-seam fastball, changeup, sweeper, slider), and occasionally threw a sinker. His four primary pitches were all plus offerings, though he doesn’t overpower opposing hitters (92.1 mph FB). Bubic produced a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 8.2% walk rate in his 20 starts – rates in line with his projections for 2026. He is more likely to produce a sub-4.00 ERA than a sub 1.20 WHIP. He allowed only six home runs in 116.1 innings (0.46 HR/9), a feat that would be difficult to repeat in a similar number of innings, particularly with Kansas City moving fences in.

Usually, a 1.4 differential between one’s ERA (2.67) and xFIP (4.27) in the prior season would push fantasy analysts and managers away and bucket a pitcher into the “lucky and due to regress” category. That’s not the case with Horton, who has held steadfastly with a 189 ADP since early February. His underlying metrics against lefties and righties were similar, though the one standout split was BABIP (.291 vs. LHHs, .219 vs. RHHs). He utilized his sweeper primary on righties (.171 BAA, 25.7% K), and his changeup more frequently against lefties (.115 BAA, 32.8% K). Horton averaged nearly 97 mph on his four-seam fastball. He was incredible at Wrigley Field (1.63 ERA, .251 wOBA). He generated league-average swings and misses (11% SwStr), but that mark hovered in the 14-15% range in the minors. Expect some improvement there closer to the 12-13% range in 2026.

Shane Baz has a similar ADP as last draft season. What has kept his ADP stable? Probably his poor ERA (4.87) in 2025, and slight market concern about making half of his starts in Oriole Park instead of Tropicana Field. That ERA was a nearly a full run higher than his xFIP (3.88) and SIERA (3.95), with the majority of the damage occurring at hitter-friendly George Steinbrenner Field (5.90 ERA, .355 wOBA), while posting respectable rates on the road (3.86, .303). He unloaded his four-seamer at a 44% clip close to evenly against righties and lefties with an average velocity of 97 mph. Baz did not fare well with a new cutter last season (.412 wOBA, 16% K), but he mastered his knuckle curve with a sharp downward bite that punched batters out at a rate of 35.2%. Baz developed a two-seam fastball in the offseason.

Tanner Bibee is the least “electric” of the group and has lost quite a bit of market confidence after a disappointing season (4.24 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) where draft helium took him as high as the fourth round of 15-team NFBC leagues last March. Going into last draft season, he was labeled as a dependable SP2 after an impressive first two years in the majors with a high strikeout rate (25.5%), low walk rate (6.6%), and one of only seven qualified pitchers between 2023 and 2024 with an ERA of 3.25 or lower. In 2025, Bibee greatly reduced his FB usage (from 43% to 28%), but that offering was still frequently mashed (47% hard-hit, .372 wOBA). He served up dingers at a higher rate (1.33 HR/9) than the past two seasons (.97) despite a six percent decrease in fly balls.

McClanahan last threw a regular season pitch in August of 2023 and is anxiously awaiting that first start in nearly three years. In his 74 career starts, McClanahan sports a 3.02 ERA (3.15 xFIP), a 1.10 WHIP, 28% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. He will be under a strict innings limit this season, with a target of around 150. He is expected to make his Major League return in the Rays’ fifth game, which will be March 31 in Milwaukee.

Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

The Cubs defense is projected as one of the best in 2026, which is great for Horton. The Guardians (for Bibee) are expected to be strong defensively, and Progressive Field is an offense-suppressing environment.

The Rays moving back to their pitcher-friendly home stadium doesn’t move the needle much for McClanahan’s market price. If he’s on his A-game, where he pitches doesn’t matter.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has been tougher on pitchers since they moved the walls in before last season. The HR Park Factor there last season was 121, second highest behind Dodger Stadium (137). Baz won’t stand a chance holding his HR/9 below 1.00, but can still produce a 4.00 ERA and at least a strikeout per inning. The O’s boast a powerhouse offense and should provide ample run support.

The walls moving in Kauffman Stadium shouldn’t impact Bubic’s HR rate as much as someone like his ace rotation-mate, Cole Ragans, but it might be too much to ask for a repeat of Bubic’s masterful, partial season. The Royals’ infield defense on the left side is bolstered by Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia, but is questionable at the keystone with Jonathan India expected to move back there full time.

It is difficult to assess these bullpens and how they might move the needle on our valuations of starting pitchers in this cluster. The bullpen I’m most confident in is Kansas City’s. They added Matt Strahm in the offseason, hope to have a full season from Lucas Erceg, and have several other effective arms: lefties Daniel Lynch IV and veteran Bailey Falter, and righties John Schreiber, Nick Mears and possibly a new and improved Alex Lange. The Orioles’ bullpen is scary and include a couple of names even I’ve never heard of.

Recommendation (with target grade)

Talent-wise, this cluster of pitchers is an A-, but if we’re collectively grading them with durability in mind, the grade drops down to a solid B.

Cade Horton (B) is the pitcher who’s risen up my personal rankings the most since November. The more I dig in, the more I want to target him in drafts.

Tanner Bibee (B-)  is the most stable of the group, but with the lowest upside. Sometimes that’s a good thing in fantasy.

I’d love to see Shane McClanahan (B-) bounce all the way back. My main issue with him is his recent draft helium, which may soar into the top 120 overall with another solid spring outing.

Kris Bubic (B+) and Shane Baz (A-) are my two favorite targets in this group. The ride might be bumpy with Baz, but I believe 2026 will be his breakout season.

“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.

• Playing Time (and Role)
• Health/Durability
• Skills/Categorical Contributions
• Context of Team Offense

ADP Cluster: Post-300 Outfielders

ADP from 17 NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC) drafts over the last five days (March 12 – March 16)

• Jasson Domínguez, New York Yankees (ADP 304)
• Cam Smith, Houston Astros (308)
• Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins (309.7)
• Cedric Mullins, Tampa Bay Rays (310.3)
• Carson Benge, New York Mets (310.5)
• Jung Hoo Lee 이정후, San Francisco Giants (310.8)

These outfielders are drafted in the Rounds 25-26 of OCs, typically as an OF5. For shallower 12-teamers with 23-25 rounds, some of these hitters may be early-season waiver targets. Carson Benge is the only one here without major league experience. Jasson Dominguez is rumored to start the season in the minors. Cam Smith, Matt Wallner, Cedric Mullins and Jung Hoo Lee are projected as everyday starters in their respective lineups. Domínguez, Smith, Wallner, and Mullins were all utilized as part of a platoon for parts of the 2025 season.

Playing Time (and Role)

For Jasson Domínguez, it’s a matter of when, not if. The former heralded prospect and top 150 ADP selection from 2025 has seen his 2026 draft stock fall over the last couple of months with expectations of starting the season in Triple-A. After all, the Yankees re-signed Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton (the DH) is healthy (for now) and the great Aaron Judge mans right field. Manager Aaron Boone wants Domínguez to be playing every day, but that opportunity doesn’t yet present itself in the majors. Boone’s problem though is that Domínguez has been forcing his hand with exceptional production in spring training – .371/.395/.686, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB, 170 wRC+ in 38 plate appearances. Domínguez had a decent rookie season (.257/.331/.388, 58 R, 23-of-27 SB in 429 PA), but his playing time was reduced down the stretch and he essentially didn’t play in the playoffs.

For the last couple of months, RosterResource projected Cam Smith as a short side platoon outfielder. That designation has been shifted to full-time right fielder batting eighth on Opening Day. His RosterResource batting order projection will certainly influence his market price these next couple of weeks. What is more important for drafters is to solidify whether they’re buying or fading based on his profile, not projected playing time, because the latter could fluctuate all season like it did in his rookie year. Smith hit lefties better (130 wRC+, .191 ISO) than he did righties (75, .098), but the sample is a small one and not predictive. Jake Myers will be play centerfield, and the other two spots will be split between Smith and lefty bats Joey Loperfido (welcome back to Houston!) and Zach Cole. Smith played 132 games in right field last season.

Matt Wallner can absolutely mash and he may earn the opportunity for full-time at-bats in the context of a weaker lineup that needs him. In 97 plate appearances against lefties last season, Wallner actually had a higher wRC+ (118) than he did against righties (113 in 295 PA) as well as a similar ISO (.247 vs. RHP, .267 vs. LHP). So far this spring, he is hitting .294 with two homers, a stolen base, and a 14.6% walk rate, through 41 plate appearances.

Cedric Mullins signed with the Rays in December in what will the first Opening Day in his career that he doesn’t don an Orioles uniform. A left-handed hitter, Mullins has avoided being platooned for most of his career, but experienced a little bit of it the last two seasons. We expect the Rays to include him in their lineup against both lefties and righties, though if he struggles, this outfield room is loaded with alternatives, including recently acquired rookie prospect, Jacob Melton. Mullins is 31 and has never been an elite defender in center,  posting negative UZR’s in all but one season. Mullins dealt with a back flare-up a couple of weeks ago, but appears healthy now. Through his first nine spring games, Mullins has two homers and a swipe.

Carson Benge is the sweet-swinging, lefty-batting, first-round selection of the Mets in the 2024 draft. He is having a strong camp (.367/.406/.433) and is projected to crack the Opening Day roster. Though he will likely begin the year on the strong side of a right field platoon with slick defender, Tyrone Taylor.

Jung Hoo Lee was a KBO star who signed a 6-year ($18.8M AAV) deal with the Giants two years ago, missed most of the 2024 season with injury, and produced mediocre results in 2025. Lee played 147 of 149 games in centerfield last season, but is being moved back to his original position from his KBO days (right field), primarily because of the offseason acquisition of Harrison Bader. Lee was a better hitter against righties (118 wRC+) than lefties (77) last season, though new manager Tony Vitello will likely start him every game. If Lee happens to stumble against lefties around a time when Luis Matos or Jerar Encarnacion heat up, it’s possible for Lee to fall into a platoon, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Health/Durability

None of the outfielders in this cluster have current injuries to worry about, but most of them have had their fair share of injuries over the years.

Cedric Mullins – The oldest of this group (31), Mullins has had a few lower-body related injury stints over the last few seasons. He missed time with a right hamstring strain last spring and missed over a month with a right groin strain in May of 2023.

Jasson Domínguez – He tore his UCL at the end of the 2023 minor-league season and had Tommy John surgery. He suffered a left oblique strain in the summer of 2024 and missed a couple of games (no IL stint) in June of 2025 with a left thumb contusion.

Jung Hoo Lee – He remained relatively health in his South Korea days, though he broke his ankle and missed half the 2023 season. The following year, his first in the Majors, he dislocated his shoulder crashing into an outfield wall in mid-May and underwent season-ending surgery. He tweaked his ankle in the WBC last week, but it turned out to be a minor issue.

Matt Wallner – He missed five weeks early last season after suffering a left hamstring strain. He also dealt with oblique strains in each of the past two seasons. Not surprising considering the big dude swings hard and carries a big stick.

Carson Benge missed his first season of college at Oklahoma State after an elbow injury caused him to undergo Tommy John surgery. His injury was pitching-related, and the two-way player shifted his focus to hitting and playing the outfield.

Cam Smith does not have an injury history other than minor nicks and bruises.

The two who I’d slightly ding fantasy value for their health and durability are Mullins and Wallner.

Skills/Categorical Contributions

Matt Wallner is in a class of his own here because of his prolific power. Some slight data manipulation here, but Wallner’s 16.1% barrel rate is tied with Mike Trout’s for seventh in the majors among hitters with at least 900 plate appearances since 2023. The guys ahead of him: Aaron Judge (26.2%), Shohei Ohtani (21.5%), Giancarlo Stanton (19.1%), Kyle Schwarber (17.7%), Juan Soto (17%), and Oneil Cruz (16.2%) – elite company, indeed. Wallner hit 22 home runs in 104 games (392 PA) last season, and has 30+ HR upside if he can stay off the IL. His batting average won’t be helpful, but he may throw in a few stolen bases and is one of the rare late-round boons for fantasy squads that might be power deficient.

Cedric Mullins had that magical 30-30 (HR-SB) season in 2021. In his past four seasons, he has swiped at least 30 bags twice, and has averaged 16.5 home runs. He has been a batting average killer though – .228 since 2023. A fair expectation for Mullins in his first season with the Rays would be 12-15 homers, 25 stolen bases, 100-130 R/RBI (combined) and another season with a sub-.240 average.

Jung Hoo Lee has the highest batting average upside of the cluster. He hit .319 in his first 30 games of 2025, went through a rough three-month stretch from May through July (.218), then hit .306 from August 1 until the end of the season. He is capable of hitting .290+ over a full season. His only positive roto category contribution was runs scored (73 in 150 games). He is a solid floor contributor, but you won’t see many projection models bless him with anything more than 10 HR and 10 SB. His allure lies within his potential batting average contributions.

Jasson Domínguez, Cam Smith, and Carson Benge are the three young, upside guys. All would project for double-digit homers and swipes with 500+ plate appearances. Dominguez’s distribution would lie higher on the SBs, though he is capable of 20-plus homers if he earns consistent playing time. Domínguez sported a 49.6% hard-hit rate and stole 23 bases on 28 attempts in 429 plate appearances last season. Smith and Benge have 20-HR, 15-SB potential though neither is likely to get there in 2026. Benge is certainly intriguing as a toolsy prospect with the eventual possibility of being a five-category contributor. Note that he only has 103 plate appearances at Triple-A and he struggled there (.178/.272/.311) after crushing it with a .300+ AVG and .400+ OBP in 92 games at High-A and Double-A.

Context of Team Offense

The best team context here is Domínguez’s with the Yankees, but that is if he is able to earn consistent playing time. Wallner’s team context is sneaky as a middle of the order power hitter, though his counting category contributions hinge on Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis staying healthy, which may be asking a lot. Based on home parks, divisions and other hitters in the lineup, the other four from this cluster have a neutral context.

Verdict (with value grades, A-F)

Jasson Domínguez (A-) may have been overpriced in the 125-150 ADP range last season, but he is being greatly undervalued this draft season, at half the cost, because of lack of role clarity. Dominguez is pushing to crack the Opening Day roster and deserves it, but it would be better if he got the reps in Triple-A. Make the low-cost investment in Dominguez late in your drafts if your roster doesn’t have a bench stash already, and you believe that his everyday role with the Yankees is simply a matter of when.

Jung Hoo Lee (B+) won’t wow us in any category other than potentially batting average. He has a high floor and could easily outproduce his draft cost with another 600+ plate appearances. Perhaps he surprises us with a bit more than what models are projecting.

Matt Wallner (B+) is the ideal power-boost option towards the end of drafts, specifically for folks whose roster construction feel light on power after 20 rounds. I’m less worried about a platoon split than oblique issues or other ailments resurfacing.

Cam Smith (B) and Carson Benge (B-) have the widest range of potential outcomes. Spending a chunk of the season isn’t off the table for either of them, but less so for Smith. Benge rocked a 81% contact rate, and despite last season’s struggles with consistency at the plate in Triple-A, he is less likely than Smith to tank us in the batting average category. Smith could fall into a platoon with Loperfido or Cole, but this is unlikely to happen for a prolonged time period.

Cedric Mullins (C+) may seem like a sneaky and savvy late-round option due to his HR-SB upside, but Tropicana Field is a downgrade from Oriole Park and his projected batting average is a massive detractor to his overall projected value.

Last weekend, the largest national fantasy baseball contest kicked off – the NFBC Main Event. For those unfamiliar, it’s a 30-round, 15-team, 5×5 roto contest with an $1,800 entry fee. This year, 855 teams will be drafted (57 leagues), and only one person will win the overall grand prize of $200,000. Most of these leagues are drafted online. A dozen or so are drafted in person, in Las Vegas, on the weekend of March 20.

I’ve been to Vegas for the Main Event every year since 2014, except for the COVID-shortened season. It’s an incredible experience filled with camaraderie among diehard fantasy baseball enthusiasts, many of us long-time friends. Many of the attendees are incredibly sharp, skilled managers, though not everyone who enters and attends is a fantasy savant. As math would have it, every league has 12 losers, since only the top three cash. For the most part, and of importance to fantasy baseball managers everywhere, is that Main Event drafters are highly invested and motivated. The draft boards and ADP movement in these leagues is worth looking at closely. We can extract actionable takeaways from such highly invested players that can assist with our roto drafts, no matter the entry fee.

Main Event drafters are human. They can be swayed by spring training production and swept away in ADP helium, a chain reaction of pushing players higher and higher in drafts, far beyond their November-February market prices. Last March, Main Event helium rose Cristopher Sánchez by several rounds, from a 175 ADP in January to 101 by Vegas, including a min pick of 63. Obviously, that worked out. A similar thing happened with Nick Pivetta, Robbie Ray, Kris Bubic, but also with Will Warren, Hayden Birdsong, and a slew of out-of-nowhere “closers” who bombed – Luke Jackson, Jordan Romano, and Mike Clevinger. And who can forget the rise of red-hot Astros outfielder Cam Smith? We call it helium because it’s literally akin to a balloon taking you up, up, and away – oftentimes directly into the scorching sun.

One interesting nuance of the Main Event: since there is overall prize money on the line as well, and we’re competing against 800+ others, it does not behoove us to punt roto categories – specifically, pitching ones. One adage is always true here: pitching always gets pushed up in the Main Event. Elite ratios (ERA, WHIP) are a scarce commodity; hence, most NFBC managers focus on anchoring their teams with strong pitching to avoid the inevitable blowups when chasing mediocre two-start pitchers in FAAB during the season. With strong planning, execution, and a bit of luck, we can punt saves in our standalone home leagues. This strategy rarely works in the Main Events, where roto categorical balance is vital and where league-mates research incessantly to make competitive bids every FAAB period for 27 weeks. Teams at the top of the Main Event standings last year didn’t win and do well in pitching because they drafted breakouts like Sánchez, Bryan Woo and/or Hunter Brown alone. Many of them used a first or second round pick on Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, or Garrett Crochet and drafted Woo and Pivetta, or Brown and Nathan Eovaldi, and picked up Trevor Rogers in-season for pennies on the dollar in May. A decade ago, the fantasy world would scoff at the idea of drafting starting pitchers or closers early. In the Main Event world in recent years, no one has besmirched their fellow competitors for drafting Skubal with the first pick of the draft or the elite, top closer in the second round.

Many of us enjoy digging deep into pitcher profiles and advanced stats at FanGraphs and other sites, hoping to discover prospect pitchers who are ready to break out, or undervalued “sleeper” pitchers the market is currently undervaluing. We want to be first on the next big thing. We want to draft him before others, and if we can’t, sometimes we’ll grab one of those helium balloons and set some min picks.

Biggest SP Risers

With the first five 2026 Main Event drafts in the books, the fresh ADPs are available for all to peruse (select ‘Main Event’ in the dropdown). The original plan for this piece was to compare the last 10 days of NFBC Draft Champions ADP (50 rounds, no FAAB) to these first five Main Event drafts to see who the biggest risers and fallers were at each position. After a quick visit with my good friend XLOOKUP and building out some comparison tables, my focus (and impetus for this piece) was inspired by the massive helium with starting pitchers after 200 ADP. This is where the action was at, with blasts from our past like Kyle Harrison, Taj Bradley,  Luis Gil in all his Ricky Vaughn-esque glory, and even the legend himself, Justin Verlander, who is back with the Tigers.

I sorted and discovered the starting pitchers whose Main Event ADP is at least three rounds higher than where it was just last week in the 50-round Draft Champions format. Pitchers in this group have risen exorbitantly over the last week for various reasons: increased spring velocity, introducing an effective new pitch, having a productive (in some cases, dominant) spring, and the increasing likelihood of an Opening Day rotation spot and aspirations of massive profit from a late-round selection.

The table below consists of 25 starting pitchers – mostly from the middle and late rounds – whose ADPs have risen by at least three rounds (45 picks) from early-March DCs to these first five Main Events. I’ve listed ADPs and their pick differences, the number of 15-team rounds increased by, and the percentage increase.

Justin Wrobleski | River Ryan, Los Angeles Dodgers

If a pitcher has a pulse, wears Dodger Blue, and has a shot at the rotation, expect helium to ensue. Blake Snell will likely spend the first month of the season on the injured list. Most drafters don’t trust Roki Sasaki, whose ADP has fallen from the the low 200’s to the mid 300’s over the past two months. Manager Dave Roberts says he will be in the rotation, which means there will be at least one rotation spot open for Wrobleski or Ryan. Both have been solid in spring – Wrobleski has 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K in 6 IP and Ryan has a 7:3 K:BB with one earned run allowed, also in six innings. Ryan is the more exciting and dynamic pitcher, but both his and Wrobleski’s ADPs remain close to each other until more definitive news is presented. Whoever is officially announced as the guy joining the rotation should see a spike of 100+ draft slots. For our shallower home leagues, these are names to monitor, but not specifically target.

Both are beneficiaries of the Roki Sasaki spring rollercoaster ride. As the market continues to lose market confidence in Sasaki and Blake Snell’s timetable continues to be pushed, Wrobleski and Ryan’s preseason

Mick Abel | Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

Both Abel and Bradley had horrific 2025 seasons and were mostly off our radars this draft season. Bradley had success at this level before, with the Rays in 2024, but owns a career 4.86 ERA in 385 innings. Abel was a promising first-round draft pick of the Phillies whose stock plummeted after his rough 39-inning debut last season (6.23, 1.51). Abel has 13 punchouts and no walks allowed in 10 spring innings. Bradley has a 19:5 K:BB with 7 ER in 14 innings. Given Abel’s pedigree, he is likely to rise up ADP at a higher rate than Bradley, depending on how his next spring starts go. Nevertheless, both pitch for a declining Twins team and run support may be tough to come by. Abel and Bradley’s high ADPs in the Main Event are tough pills to swallow and it might be best to not chase either one.

Kyle Harrison | Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

With Freddy Peralta traded and Quinn Priester dealing with nerve issues in his wrist and starting the season on the IL, opportunities arise for the Brewers’ newest, talented young arms, Harrison and Sproat. Both are projected to begin the season in the rotation, though Sproat’s inclusion may depend on the health status of Logan Henderson. Harrison’s ADP has ballooned as it gets close to Round 20 of 15-team Main Events. Sproat’s current price is a bit more palatable, though it too will likely rise over the next two weeks. Both are former impact prospects and familiar names. Fantasy managers usually feel comfortable investing in Milwaukee starters, and this does feel like a great opportunity for both Harrison and Sproat. Harrison is a strong end-game target in shallower non-NFBC leagues as well.

Dustin May | Richard Fitts | Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

It really is comical how much preseason baseball influences the market. Two months ago, fantasy analysts (myself included) preached to avoid Cardinals pitchers outright. Fast forward to March, and the helium begins impacting every potential starting pitcher who looks good in the spring. Liberatore had somewhat of a breakout season in 2025, producing respectably in 29 starts, posting an above-average walk rate of 6.2%. May has teased us for years and there is no doubt he will draw many drafters back in. May finally threw more than 60 innings in a season last year (132.1 between two teams), but the results were poor (4.96 ERA, 4.47 SIERA, 1.42 WHIP. The most important thing to monitor with May this spring is his control. He walked batters at a 9.6% clip last year and has three walks in 6.2 innings so far this spring. Fitts is throwing hard (touching 99 mph) and having a nice spring. It’s possible that he beats out Kyle Leahy for the fifth spot, but is more likely to begin the season in Triple-A. Of the three, Liberatore is the one I’d want to target in deeper drafts. For 12-team drafts, stay away from all three.

Grant Holmes | J.R. Ritchie, Atlanta Braves

Traditionally, Atlanta Braves rotations have been a strong source of March helium – AJ Smith-Shawver anyone? With Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep sidelined for a while, opportunities to snag rotation spots have risen. Holmes is all but locked into a spot, especially after a masterful nine-strikeout performance against the Pirates on Thursday. Holmes did not allow a hit in five innings. Holmes boasted a 25% strikeout rate (22 starts, one relief appearance), though his 11% walk rate was a huge issue. Holmes is capable of reducing it to the 9% range, though don’t expect a helpful WHIP from him. As long as Holmes is healthy, he will be in this rotation. His 358 ADP is very reasonable, though it’s certainly going up after that masterful performance. Ritchie is a stud prospect who returned from Tommy John in June of 2024 and had a strong season in the minors in 2025 (140 IP – 2.64 ERA – 1.01 WHIP – 24.8% K – 9.6% BB). Though he is likely to start the year in Triple-A, he is certainly ready to dominate in the Majors. He is one spring injury away from earning a rotation spot before Opening Day. Both Holmes and Ritchie are strong targets in deeper formats and in the Main Event.

Wrapping It Up

There are other intriguing risers like Shane McClanahan, though we must always proceed with caution chasing massive ADP jumps with pitchers like him and Joe Musgrove who are working their way back after long delays. It’s difficult to field competitive fantasy squads if they’re loaded with injury risks and promising prospects. Hey, it’s great that Cade Cavalli is healthy and looks fantastic this spring. But there’s no chance I’m going to chase a Washington Nationals’ starter into the top 250 ADP when there are oodles of viable, safer options in this draft range. For every few risers, there are fallers. Sometimes players fall because we’re too dialed into small spring samples and missing the forest for the trees.

Though some of the best fantasy players around play the NFBC Main Event, we must remember that no one can predict the future. We can still take occasional risks, but they must be calculated and logical ones. Taking a shot on the Braves and Brewers pitchers who have been rising feel like a sharper move than chasing ADP helium on lesser talented starters who aren’t guaranteed rotation spots and play on worse teams. Good starting pitching is a key to success in all roto formats, but chasing helium blindly will often carry our balloon directly into getting burnt. Stay cool out there.

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This past season was one of my worst ever. And about halfway through it, the outcome looked worse than the final results. I was able to focus on a few leagues and salvaged my bankroll. Here are some of the lessons I learned. Read the rest of this entry »

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While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Dylan Beavers (10): A solid target for any fantasy managers needing help with batting average and/or stolen bases. The 24-year-old outfielder may not have elite power, but it’s non-zero with 15 HR last season and 18 so far this year. He has a great eye and consistently posts a .400 OBP. Being on base that much means he has a chance to steal bases (55-grade speed).

Colby Thomas (10): For fantasy teams needing power, Thomas is the long shot. In the minors, he hit 31 HR in 2024 and 18 HR this season. In the majors, he added 3 HR to the total. He’s even added 2 SB.

His downfall is his 43% K% (21% SwStr%) with a .370 BABIP, maintaining his .241 AVG. Pitchers are getting him to swing-and-miss on four-seam fastballs (17% SwStr%) while secondaries are causing additional issues (slider: 26% SwStr%, change: 35% SwStr%). He’s going to have a short career if he can’t hit fastballs.

Paul DeJong (8) and Adam Frazier (7): You know the options are limited when Frazier and DeJong join the most-added lists.

Yoán Moncada (6): Strong-side platoon bat who is batting .237/.328/.373  in the second half. And not hurt … yet.

Daylen Lile (6): The 22-year-old rookie is playing and seems to be breaking out with a .635 OPS in the first half and .784 OPS in the second half. All the gains are BABIP driven (.258 BABIP to .355 BABIP) with his strikeouts up (14% K% to 20% K%) and walks down (6% to 5%).

Miguel Andujar (5): Starting every day in the cleanup spot for a team that plays in a high school-sized field. Solid add.

Evan Carter (5): Carter gets outfield starts with Adolis Garcia on the IL. While he might not be in a platoon, he should be (.309 OPS vRHP in ’25, .262 OPS for his career). He’s not going to be a positive in power or batting average, but he does have 13 SB.

I’ve been dismissive of Carter, but he’s showing some signs of improvement with a career-low strikeout rate (19% K%) and career-high max exit velocity (111 mph).

Miguel Vargas (5): Off the IL and back on fantasy rosters.

Brett Baty (5): Started in eight of the last nine games with a 109 OPS+. It’s tough to determine who is starting at second and third base since Baty is sharing time with Mark Vientos (88 OPS+) and Ronny Mauricio (95 OPS+).

Victor Robles (5):

Gabriel Moreno (5): On a rehab assignment and should be joining the major league team soon.

Miguel Rojas (5): One of the few available Dodger options for their four games in Colorado.

Starters

Nolan McLean (11): Deserves all the love after his first start with 8 K and 0 ER over 5 IP. There are a couple of issues. The first is the excessive walks (4.0 BB/9 in the minors, 6.8 BB/9 in the majors). The STUPH models picked up on this, with both giving him below-average overall grades (high Stuff, low command).

Cristian Javier (11): During his rehab, he posted just as many walks as strikeouts (15). Over the first two starts, his 3.38 ERA looks great, but his ERA estimators point to a 4.50 ERA talent. His STUPH grades think he’s worse (4.91 bot ERA).

Monitor his groundball rate. An 18% GB% points to a 1.9 HR/9. He’s not even limiting hard contact (50% HardHit%).

With so few options, he’s worth adding, but closely monitor his production.

Taijuan Walker (6): It’s nearing the point that Walker is going to be an anchor for the postseason rotation.

Yoendrys Gómez (6): After 12 relief appearances, he’s started twice with a 3.60 ERA (4.74 xFIP), 1.00 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9. He’s thrown six different pitches this year that all grade out as average. He needs the large pitch mix to navigate a lineup.

Bryce Elder (5): The career 4.78 ERA “talent” faced the White Sox this week and rewarded his fantasy managers with 8 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, and 3 K in 4 IP. Bryce Elder and his career 4.78 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are never the answer.

Luis Morales (5): Let’s start with two stats: 1.86 ERA and 8.4 K/9. Not bad. Even add in a 3.73 FIP. Then there is the 7.5 BB/9, 1.66 WHIP, 4.67 botERA, and 5.93 xFIP. Just the 1.66 WHIP did as much ratio damage as a 6.46 ERA.

Relievers

Victor Vodnik (6): Fantasy managers with a Rockies closer …

… and after a three Save week …

Bryan Abreu (5): Great reliever who is now the closer on a good team. Added for top dollar in leagues where he was not already rostered.

The Dog Days of Summer episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Sara Sanchez

League Updates

Strategy Section

• Dog Days of Summer (late August) Strategy
  • Riding the hot hand
  • How much should you be churning your roster?
  • Which categories should you focus on?
  • How to know when to drop currently injured players?
  • Does current fantasy standing matter for making decisions?
  • Does team MLB standing matter for picking up players?

Chicago Cubs

• Rotation
• Pete Crow-Armstrong
  • Regression
  • 2026 draft season value
• Owen Caissie
• 2025 playoff chances

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Auction Championship episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Mager

Strategy Section

• NFBC Strategy
  • What sets the NFBC apart from others?
  • Key components to winning
  • Evaluating players BEFORE looking at projections
  • Which is more important – the draft or in-season play?
  • What goes into lineup setting?
  • How do you prevent overthinking decisions?
  • Are there certain category statistics that you need to solidify early in the year?
  • Are there certain category statistics that you can wait on and pick up in-season?
  • How does strategy change year to year?
  • Auction planning
  • Today’s game
    • Pitching strategy in today’s game
    • Are there sleepers anymore?
• Waiver Wire / FAAB
  • Interaction with the current week’s lineup setting
  • Putting in the time
• Fantasy partnership
  • What makes a successful fantasy partnership?
  • Splitting up tasks

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Buy/Sell/Hold

• Hot Players
  • Nathan Lukes
  • Dominic Smith
  • Miguel Andujar
  • Luke Keaschall

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

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While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Jakob Marsee (11): Added for his playing time (Marlins’ centerfielder) and ability to steal bases (51 SB in ’24, 47 in ’25). An .833 BABIP and 29% BB% makes his current slash line look insane (.500/.647/1.167)

Tyler Locklear (10): I’m not sure Locklear is an improvement over other waiver wire first basemen. Here are his Steamer600 comps.

If a manager is eyeing Curtis Mead, then maybe Locklear should be on their radar.

Eli White (9): The 31-year-old White has six straight starts with Acuna on the IL. White has been a fine injury replacement with 7 HR, 7 SB, and a .254 AVG in 222 PA. I wonder if most of his demand came from his two-homer race track game on Sunday.

Jonny DeLuca (8): For any Ray, dissecting the playing time is the most important factor. DeLuca has started in eight of 11 games since coming off the IL. He sat against three righties (started against five righties).

Over his three major league seasons, he has hit .236/.291/.353 (84 wRC+) with 8 HR and 23 SB in 463 PA. While the stolen bases would be helpful in fantasy, he needs to continue hitting and play every game to become fantasy-relevant.

Blake Perkins (7): The 28-year-old outfielder is in his third major league season. In 656 PA, he has 12 HR and 31 SB with a .235 AVG (similar to DeLuca). A speedster with non-zero power and some contact issues. Since Jackson Chourio got hurt, Perkins started five straight in centerfield.

For a player with his profile, he needs to play all the time to get the required Runs and RBI. Check in on his playing time once Chourio returns.

Joey Loperfido (6): Since being called up, the 26-year-old is batting .389/.436/.542 (.500 BABIP) with 3 HR and 1 SB in 79 PA. I found two changes from last year’s .614 OPS campaign. First, he’s increased his Contact% from 67% to 73%. Second, he cut his swinging-strike rate against sliders from 21% to 11%.

The Jays have noticed and started him in nine of the last 10 games. Over a full season, he projects for 15 HR, 10 SB, and a .240 AVG. Streaming option at best.

Brooks Lee (6): With Correa traded away, Lee has started every game at shortstop.  Over a full season, he projects for 15 HR, 6 SB, and a .240 AVG. Almost the same as Loperfido. Another streaming option.

Nolan Gorman (6): Gorman started in five of the last six games as he fills in for Nolan Arenado. Gorman has been a solid source of power (10 HR in 244 PA) but a drag in speed (1 SB) and a .224 AVG. Short-term fill-in.

Daniel Schneemann (6): The 28-year-old middle infielder has been on a hot streak ( .364/.378/.705 , 1 HR, 2 SB) since the break, driven by a .394 BABIP.

Casey Schmitt (6): Starts five games and then sits for one or two. Showing signs of 20 HR power (6 HR in 189 PA). Contact% and avgEV are at career highs. Good real-life hitter.

Warming Bernabel (5): Starting to cool down (in a 2 for 12 stretch), but still has a sexy triple slash line: .400/.415/.775 (.394 BABIP). He’s hacking at everything (1 BB in 41 PA), so pitchers aren’t giving him anything to hit. Regression comes, but when will his talent stabilize?

Abraham Toro (5): Ever since Mayer (wrist) went on the IL, Toro started all 11 games. The 28-year-old is another 15 HR and .250 AVG talent with no upside. A bench streamer at best.

Ty France (5): France went from starting most days in Minnesota to being an unrosterable part-time DH in Toronto.

Starters

Carson Whisenhunt (9): The 24-year-old lefty is showing no signs of being a major league pitcher. His 7% K%-BB% is not good. The four closest qualified pitchers are Bailey Falter, Mitchell Parker, Andre Pallante, and Jake Irvin.

His results, STUPH, and projections point to a high-4.00 ERA talent with a ratio-killing WHIP. I guess the matchup against Washington is enticing.

Jameson Taillon (6): Injury stash for a pitcher with a 4.44 ERA (4.30 xFIP), 1.11 WHIP, and 7.0 K/9.

Davis Martin (6): Martin’s opponents are decent for the next two weeks (at SEA, vs CLE, at KC). All season-long indicators (projections, STUPH, results) point to him being a low-4.00 ERA talent.

One issue, since coming off the IL (forearm), he’s lacked control with a 5.9 BB/9 and a 39% Ball% (equivalent of 4.2 BB/9). I understand teams need to take a chance, and this is a big one.

Logan Henderson (5): Finally back in the rotation with Misiorowski on the IL. The excitement has quelled a bit on Henderson with K%-BB% in AAA dropping from 25% to 17% between stints. Our two STUPH both think he’s the same pitcher. Maybe he got bored in AAA.

Aaron Civale (5): Since the break, he’s thrown three shutouts with a 10.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 50% GB% (2.45 xFIP).  The obvious improvement is that he’s attacking the strike zone. Before this stretch, he had a 3.8 BB/9. Additionally, he’s upped his curveball (12% SwStr%, highest among his pitches) usage from 17% to 24%.

His STUPH grades see an improvement.

STUPH: 1H, 2H
BotOverall: 39, 47
Pitching+: 91, 105

They point to a league-average pitcher, and that has some fantasy value.

Taj Bradley (5): Now in AAA, hopefully finding where the strikeouts went. Each season, his strikeouts have dropped from 11.1 K/9 to 10.0 K/9 to 7.7 K/9. And this season, he has a career-high 3.6 BB/9. I’m not sure what people are hoping for? He’s never been a league-average pitcher.

Tomoyuki Sugano (5): I’m always interested in why subpar pitchers are added. With Sugano, managers are likely chasing his next two starts  (vs ATH, vs SEA). He’s been horrible this season with a 4.42 ERA (4.64 xFIP), 1.32 WHIP, and just a 6.0 K/9. Desperate teams could be better off with a well-placed middle reliever option.

Kai-Wei Teng (5): The 26-year-old righty struggled in his first MLB action this year, allowing 5 ER in 3 IP with 5 K, 3 BB, 1 HBP, and 4 H. His struggles center around walking too many batters. In his combined 14 MLB innings, he has a 6.9 BB/9. His 41% Ball% over that stretch is equivalent to 5.4 BB/9. Here are his last four minor league walk rates.

Season: BB/9
2022: 5.6
2023: 4.8
2024: 5.2
2025: 3.5

Teng has shown the ability to miss bats. Here is how his pitches performed in AAA.

Everything except his sinker is a legit swing-and-miss pitch.

To be fantasy-relevant, he needs to find the plate.

Relievers

Cole Sands (10), JoJo Romero (9), Calvin Faucher (8), Keegan Akin (7), Sean Newcomb (7), Victor Vodnik (6): This week’s reliever carousel has been covered in detail by every publication and podcast. I have nothing to add.

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Hitters

Colson Montgomery (9): His .257 AVG has come out of left field after struggling to hit for average for years. The biggest surprise has been him dropping his strikeout rate from 33% to 24%. I’m not buying the lower strikeout rate since his swinging-strike rate jumped from 13.1% to 17.2%. Here are some comps to similar swinging-strike rates that point to a 30% K%.

Josh Jung (7): The 27-year-old came off the IL this past Monday (July 21st), so his adds were a week behind. He’s not lived up to his prospect hype and is not a fantasy difference maker (10 HR, 4 SB, .249 AVG). At least he’s healthy … for now.

Gabriel Arias (6): While not much of a fantasy contributor (.234/.294/.381, 7 HR, 4 SB), he is off the IL and back to playing every day.

Joc Pederson (6): Pederson crushes right-handed pitching. Nothing more. One concern is that all his power metrics are at multi-year lows. Maybe bench him for a week or two as he builds up his strength (broken hand).

Warming Bernabel (6): The 23-year-old third baseman is on a Kyren Paris-like hot start. In the majors so far, Bernabel is batting .389/.421/.833 with 2 HR in 19 PA. In AAA, he hit .301/.356/.450 with 8 HR and 5 SB. While those numbers look great, it’s just a 90 wRC+ (10% worse than the average AAA batter) once run environment is taken into account.

His number one trait is his ability to put the ball in play with a just a 12% K% in AAA and a 5% K% so far in the majors. He doesn’t have much power. His AAA 84.2 avgEV ranks 862nd among 972 batters in AAA. He pulled both his home runs right down the line.

For now, he’s an add and monitor.

Ryan Mountcastle (5): Some reports had Mountcastle possibly coming off the IL this week, but it seems to be another week for him.

#Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (hamstring) is eligible to return from IL tomorrow, but he’s unlikely to be back until series in Philadelphia next week

— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) July 29, 2025

He’s been crushing AAA so far (253 wRC+) with good EV numbers (97 mph avgEV, 112 maxEV). Once he returns, playing time will not be an issue with some of his teammates traded away.

Tommy Pham (5): The Pham demand comes from his weekend games in Colorado. He’s been playing (starting regularly since July 1st) and hitting (.302/.373/.488 in June) for weeks, but no one seemed to care. He’s not doing anything new. It’s just one of the hot stretches he’ll go on. Ed. note: He did also get a new contact Rx that helped his vision which is particularly important as he does have a degenerative eye issue called keratoconus. 

Coby Mayo (5): With several teammates likely to get traded (did happen), managers hoped Mayo (.225/.307/.382, 3 HR, 1 SB) would get more playing time. I’m just not sure Mayo is a good baseball player.

Starters

Troy Melton (11): So a 10.80 ERA can be ignored? While Melton gave up a ton of hits in his debut against the Pirates, he did strike out seven of them while walking two (3.28 xFIP). And on Monday, he went 7 IP with 5 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER over 7 IP (3.36 xFIP). I had the unknown ranked as my fourth-highest free agent starter this past weekend, and that might have been too low.

He’s example #48452 on why to ignore ERA when evaluating pitchers. Hell, just look at his AAA numbers: 2.72 ERA, 2.24 xFIP, 1.1b WHIP, 12.1 K/9. As for an arsenal, he has a 97-mph fastball (11% SwStr%), slider (23% SwStr%), sinker (75% GB%), cutter, curve, and splitter (14% SwStr%). Here are how the pitches did in AAA:

Ed. note: He did get moved to the bullpen after the deadline moves so now he’s the 6th SP. 

J.T. Ginn (9): Time to keep it simple with Ginn. His stats are

9.6 K/9
2.1 BB/9
54% GB%

Pitchers who are better in all three categories this year:

None

The closest comp is Cristopher Sánchez (9.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 58% GB%). By just continuing to pitch like he has so far, Ginn will be comparable to the top pitchers in the game.

Luis Severino (6): Severino is in the middle of a nice stretch to add as a streamer. This week he faced Seattle (5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 1 ER, 5 H) with a two-step lineup up next week at Washington and Baltimore.

Besides the decent stream, he has been better in July with a 3.81 ERA (3.42 xFIP) compared to a 5.09 ERA (4.76 xFIP) before that. The improvement is from more strikeouts and groundballs.

Stat: April to June, July
K%: 15%, 24%
FBv: 95.8, 96.8
Zone%: 54%, 56%
GB%: 39%, 51%

The only reasons I could find for the strikeout jump are increased velocity and more pitches in the strike zone. The more I write, the more I’m getting pissed that I didn’t emphasize him more this past weekend.

Justin Verlander (6): This add is almost entirely based on Verlander’s matchup against the Pirates this week (5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB) and two-step next week against the Pirates and Nationals.

He is showing no signs of improving, so I suspect Verlander will be dropped after the two-start week.

Joey Wentz (5): Like Verlander, Wentz was added for a decent two-start week. This week, he gets Kansas City (6 IP, 7 K, 0 ER, 3 BB) with two starts next week against the Brewers and Marlins.

Wentz is a career 5.59 ERA (4.74 xFIP) with no signs of improving this year (5.45 ERA, 4.47 xFIP). He’s been dropped by two other teams before joining the Braves. In 18 IP since joining the Braves, he has a 3.09 xFIP. With the Pirates, it was a 4.56 xFIP. A 7.95 xFIP with the Twins. The improvement he made was throwing more strikes.

Team: Ball%
PIT: 37%
MIN: 41%
ATL: 34%

A 34% Ball% usually points to a high-3.00 ERA talent. Not great, but way better than his previous results.

Relievers

Seranthony Domínguez (9): These adds coincided with Félix Bautista going on the IL, but all reports had the Orioles trading away Dominguez. And they did. Drop.

Phil Maton (5): Rumors had Ryan Helsley on the move, so fantasy managers bet Maton would take over the closer’s duties. Again, all reports also had Maton on the move. Maton is now a drop.

Blake Treinen (5): The Dodgers didn’t have a closer, and Treinen was coming off the IL. This add was perfect for those looking to add Saves.

Garrett Whitlock (5): On Sunday, Aroldis Chapman left with a back issue, so managers looked to add his replacement.

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »