While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
Note: Sorry for missing last week. Life just got in the way.
Batters
Marcelo Mayer (9): While one of the top prospects in the game (ranked 31st overall here at FanGraphs, 15 at Baseball America), I think Mayer is a good prospect and could help some fantasy teams. He doesn’t project to be a difference-maker.
First, here are the batters with similar Steamer600 projections.
If a manager needs an Alex Bregman replacement, Eric Wagaman could be added for much less. In these leagues, Wagaman was added for an average of $16.5 while Mayer cost $106.6 on average.
Now, Mayer was a top prospect, so maybe he should only be compared to other top prospects. To start the season, Baseball America gave him a ranking of 15 overall. Knowing Mayer posted an .818 OPS in AAA over 193 PA, I found historical comps using the following variables.
Between 100 and 300 PA in AAA
An >= .800 OPS in AAA
Baseball America preseason rank from 6 to 25
Here are the results:
Marcelo Mayer Comps Using AAA Stats and Baseball America’s Top-100 Ranking
In AAA, between 100 and 300 PA and >= 800 OPS
A Baseball America preseason rank from 6 to 25 (Mayer = 15)
The numbers are close, with some better in one and the other.
Marcelo Mayer Estimated Production
System
HR
SB
AVG
OPS
BA Rank & AAA
17.6
11.5
.234
.643
Steamer600
14
7
.245
.693
Average
15.8
9.3
.240
.668
Some 2024 hitters who posted similar results were Jake Cronenworth (17 HR, 5 SB, .241 AVG), Jonathan India (15, 13, .248), and Matt Vierling (16, 6, .257). Vierling (next profile) was added with an average bid of $18.1.
Mayer seems like a reasonable add, just not for the $200+.
Matt Vierling (7): Two starts in three games since coming off the IL. There is no way to know how this add will play out. Vierling could still be hurt. He may not play enough to be fantasy relevant. Or he could have a career year. These managers rostered him now and will evaluate him next week.
Mike Tauchman (7): Platoon bat with just six starts this season (28 PA, .784 OPS). Over his career, he has a 10 HR and 11 SB pace over 162 games. It’s not clear if he’ll he’s good enough to demand full-time at-bats.
Matt Wallner (6): If a team needed power, they might have focused to add Wallner, who has 30 HR in 647 career PA. A 25 HR power source doesn’t just appear on the wire, so Wallner needed to be targeted. The only issue could be if he plays every game with the team getting “healthy”.
Andrew Benintendi (6): He has been a solid accumulator when healthy with 5 HR.
Evan Carter (6): I’m not sure about why Carter was added. He only starts against lefties. He’s been horrible the past two seasons (.616 OPS). He can’t stay healthy. Managers must be dreaming of a continuation of .412 BABIP from 2023.
Robert Hassell III (6): After hitting .288/.337/.405 with 9 SB in AAA, he’s now hitting .143/.143/.143 with 1 SB in four straight starts in centerfield batting seventh or ninth. Pitchers might have his number by not throwing him many fastballs (40% seen) and 29% K% (19% in AAA). Monitor to see if he can handle major league pitching.
Kody Clemens (5): Great since joining the Twins by hitting .327/.411/.714 with 4 HR in 57. A couple of factors hold down his value. First, he doesn’t face lefties, so he needs to be actively managed. Second, once his .429 BABIP normalizes, his batting average could tank with his 30% K%.
Abraham Toro (5): Strong-side platoon bat with six righties on the schedule this week. Acceptable so far by batting .262/.262/.548 with 3 HR.
Angel Martínez (5): Eight starts in the last 10 games while hitting .271/.294/.388 with 2 HR and 4 SB on the season. One issue will be his playing time with Lane Thomas off the IL.
Lenyn Sosa (5): A fine bench bat (4 HR, .277 AVG) for these deeper formats.
Starters
Jacob Lopez (7): This is Lopez’s third promotion to the majors, where he has a combined 3.93 ERA (5.46 xFIP), 1.36 WHIP (4.2 BB/9), and 8.1 K/9. Lopez has two major issues that could cause him to struggle in the majors. First, he walks too many batters with his 39.5% Ball%, pointing to a 4.6 BB/9. His 1.57 WHIP is doing as much damage as a 5.93 ERA.
It’s tough to find many positives. A 91-mph fastball already puts him behind the eight ball. Both of our STUPH models grade his pitches below average. BotERA values him as a 5.51 ERA talent. I’m unable to see the demand.
Ryan Yarbrough (7): Since moving to the rotation, the 33-year-old has a 2.25 ERA (3.56 xFIP), 0.85 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9. One adjustment points to his success, he added a plus slider (18% SwStr%, 22% usage, 119 Stuff+). Add now and see if the results continue.
Kyle Harrison (6): Harrison was a tough call on whether to add him or not on Sunday. It seems that he’ll get a start against the Marlins but possibly head back to the bullpen once Verlander comes off the IL. Between starting and relieving, the 23-year-old has a 3.86 ERA (3.05 xFIP), 1.07 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9. His four-seamer and curve have greater than a 16% SwStr%. A worthwhile addition.
Randy Vásquez (6): Going into this FAAB period, here is how struggled with adding Vásquez.
On Monday, he had his first start with the following stats: 3 ER, 6 H, 5 K, 1 BB, and no Win in 6.1 IP. Acceptable, but the hope was for the Win.
Mick Abel (5): Abel’s debut was great (6 IP, 9 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER), but he was demoted right after the start. I love the upside, but it’s unknown how long he’ll stay in the minors, especially with Andrew Painter finishing his rehab.
Mike Burrows (5): After pitching to a 2.51 ERA (3.81 xFIP), 1.05 WHIP, and 11.4 K/9 in AAA, the 25-year-old struggled in his debut, allowing 4 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, and just 3 K in 5 IP. He attacked batters with a 94.5 mph fastball and three secondaries.
Keider Montero (5): Like Vásquez, Montero was a suspect talent (5.28 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, 6.2 K/9, 1.57 WHIP), but was scheduled for two winnable starts (vs SF, at KC). The gamble paid off so far with a Win in 5 IP with o ER, 3 K and 2 BB in the first start. His changeup was the only successful secondary.
Relievers
Daniel Palencia (11): Now the Cubs’ closer with three straight Saves to go along with his 9.2 K/9 and 1.93 ERA. Must add in all Save leagues.
Ronny Henriquez (8): Possibly elite closer with a 12.4 K/9 and 1.78 ERA (3.60 xFIP). It’d be nice to see the 4.6 BB/9 come down, but he’s now got the role.
Robert Garcia (7): With Luke Jackson struggling (5.17 ERA), Garcia got the team’s last Save and could move into the closer’s role.
Ben Casparius (7): The 26-year-old righty has been elite this season with a 2.94 ERA (2.87 xFIP), 0.98 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9. While he’s not in the Dodgers’ rotation, he could if more injuries happen. Right, the game’s best long reliever.
Jorge López (6): With Kyle Finnegan on the IL, López (6.00 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 6.0 K/9) is the default closer in Washington.
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
Tonight, I will be drafting my second $1600 NFBC Auction Championship team. This is a 15-team, 5×5 Roto league with an overall prize pool. You can see the live draft board here.
It’s Main Event season!! For the unaware, the Main Event is the high-stakes marquee contest over at the NFBC where everyone competes in 15-team leagues but also in one giant 700+ team league against everyone. If you want to get into the NFBC but don’t quite want to jump into the Main just yet, they have leagues at all sorts of price points to get started. This is not an ad, but I’m a huge fan of the NFBC so I’m happy to gas them up to anyone looking to get into the mix!
Anyway, with the Mains rolling I wanted to take a look at who’s moving up so far. Starting pitching is notoriously priced up in Main Events as teams don’t want to be left short on the mound and as injuries pile up in spring, a lot of managers start to move their favorite SPs up the board. I took a look at the first 3 Main Events and compared SP prices to the Rotowire Online Championship leagues which is a 12-team format that functions similarly to the Main. It’s at a lower price point so there are far more teams, but it has that same overall component that makes these NFBC events so unique.
I broke things down by pick range instead of just looking at the biggest movers overall or else all 15 guys would’ve been from the later rounds. Without further ado, 15 significant SP risers through 3 Mains (there has been a 4th since I pulled the data, but I’d already made my charts and everything so I didn’t get it into the mix):
