Big Kid Adds (Week 9)

Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Note: Sorry for missing last week. Life just got in the way.

Batters

Marcelo Mayer (9): While one of the top prospects in the game (ranked 31st overall here at FanGraphs, 15 at Baseball America), I think Mayer is a good prospect and could help some fantasy teams.  He doesn’t project to be a difference-maker.

First, here are the batters with similar Steamer600 projections.

Now, Mayer was a top prospect, so maybe he should only be compared to other top prospects. To start the season, Baseball America gave him a ranking of 15 overall. Knowing Mayer posted an .818 OPS in AAA over 193 PA, I found historical comps using the following variables.
  • Between 100 and 300 PA in AAA
  • An >= .800 OPS in AAA
  • Baseball America preseason rank from 6 to 25
Here are the results:
Marcelo Mayer Comps Using AAA Stats and Baseball America’s Top-100 Ranking
Name Age Season PA Rank PA OPS AVG HR SB
Andy LaRoche 22 2006 19 115 .677 .226 1 2
Buster Posey 22 2009 7 443 .862 .305 18 0
Desmond Jennings 22 2009 6 24 .625 .190 0 2
Mike Moustakas 21 2010 9 365 .675 .263 5 2
George Springer 23 2013 18 345 .804 .231 20 5
Jorge Soler 22 2014 12 404 .723 .262 10 3
Keibert Ruiz 22 2021 11 433 .673 .251 7 6
Brendan Rodgers 22 2019 23 21 .238 .095 0 0
Nick Senzel 23 2018 10 414 .742 .256 12 14
Gabriel Moreno 22 2022 12 380 .747 .284 7 6
Noelvi Marte 21 2023 23 242 .549 .210 4 9
Francisco Alvarez 20 2022 9 423 .721 .209 25 2
Pete Crow-Armstrong 21 2023 18 410 .670 .237 10 27
Coby Mayo 21 2023 25 46 .293 .098 0 0
Average 21.7 14.4 290 .643 .223 8.5 5.6
Median 22 12 373 .676 .234 7 2.5
HR/600 SB/600
17.6 11.5
In AAA, between 100 and 300 PA and >= 800 OPS
A Baseball America preseason rank from 6 to 25 (Mayer = 15)

The numbers are close, with some better in one and the other.

Marcelo Mayer Estimated Production
System HR SB AVG OPS
BA Rank & AAA 17.6 11.5 .234 .643
Steamer600 14 7 .245 .693
Average 15.8 9.3 .240 .668

Some 2024 hitters who posted similar results were Jake Cronenworth (17 HR, 5 SB, .241 AVG), Jonathan India (15, 13, .248), and Matt Vierling (16, 6, .257). Vierling (next profile) was added with an average bid of $18.1.

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Mayer seems like a reasonable add, just not for the $200+.

Matt Vierling (7): Two starts in three games since coming off the IL. There is no way to know how this add will play out. Vierling could still be hurt. He may not play enough to be fantasy relevant. Or he could have a career year. These managers rostered him now and will evaluate him next week.

Mike Tauchman (7): Platoon bat with just six starts this season (28 PA, .784 OPS). Over his career, he has a 10 HR and 11 SB pace over 162 games. It’s not clear if he’ll he’s good enough to demand full-time at-bats.

Matt Wallner (6): If a team needed power, they might have focused to add Wallner, who has 30 HR in 647 career PA. A 25 HR power source doesn’t just appear on the wire, so Wallner needed to be targeted. The only issue could be if he plays every game with the team getting “healthy”.

Andrew Benintendi (6): He has been a solid accumulator when healthy with 5 HR.

Evan Carter (6): I’m not sure about why Carter was added. He only starts against lefties. He’s been horrible the past two seasons (.616 OPS). He can’t stay healthy. Managers must be dreaming of a continuation of .412 BABIP from 2023.

Robert Hassell III (6): After hitting .288/.337/.405 with 9 SB in AAA, he’s now hitting .143/.143/.143 with 1 SB in four straight starts in centerfield batting seventh or ninth. Pitchers might have his number by not throwing him many fastballs (40% seen) and 29% K% (19% in AAA). Monitor to see if he can handle major league pitching.

Kody Clemens (5): Great since joining the Twins by hitting .327/.411/.714 with 4 HR in 57. A couple of factors hold down his value. First, he doesn’t face lefties, so he needs to be actively managed. Second, once his .429 BABIP normalizes, his batting average could tank with his 30% K%.

Abraham Toro (5): Strong-side platoon bat with six righties on the schedule this week. Acceptable so far by batting .262/.262/.548 with 3 HR.

Angel Martínez (5): Eight starts in the last 10 games while hitting .271/.294/.388 with 2 HR and 4 SB on the season. One issue will be his playing time with Lane Thomas off the IL.

Lenyn Sosa (5): A fine bench bat (4 HR, .277 AVG) for these deeper formats.

Starters

Jacob Lopez (7): This is Lopez’s third promotion to the majors, where he has a combined 3.93 ERA (5.46 xFIP), 1.36 WHIP (4.2 BB/9), and 8.1 K/9. Lopez has two major issues that could cause him to struggle in the majors. First, he walks too many batters with his 39.5% Ball%, pointing to a 4.6 BB/9. His 1.57 WHIP is doing as much damage as a 5.93 ERA.

It’s tough to find many positives. A 91-mph fastball already puts him behind the eight ball. Both of our STUPH models grade his pitches below average. BotERA values him as a 5.51 ERA talent. I’m unable to see the demand.

Ryan Yarbrough (7): Since moving to the rotation, the 33-year-old has a 2.25 ERA (3.56 xFIP), 0.85 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9. One adjustment points to his success, he added a plus slider (18% SwStr%, 22% usage, 119 Stuff+). Add now and see if the results continue.

Kyle Harrison (6): Harrison was a tough call on whether to add him or not on Sunday. It seems that he’ll get a start against the Marlins but possibly head back to the bullpen once Verlander comes off the IL. Between starting and relieving, the 23-year-old has a 3.86 ERA (3.05 xFIP), 1.07 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9. His four-seamer and curve have greater than a 16% SwStr%. A worthwhile addition.

Randy Vásquez (6): Going into this FAAB period, here is how struggled with adding Vásquez.

Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman.bsky.social) 2025-05-25T21:18:34.863Z

On Monday, he had his first start with the following stats: 3 ER, 6 H, 5 K, 1 BB, and no Win in 6.1 IP. Acceptable, but the hope was for the Win.

Mick Abel (5): Abel’s debut was great (6 IP, 9 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER), but he was demoted right after the start. I love the upside, but it’s unknown how long he’ll stay in the minors, especially with Andrew Painter finishing his rehab.

Mike Burrows (5): After pitching to a 2.51 ERA (3.81 xFIP), 1.05 WHIP, and 11.4 K/9 in AAA, the 25-year-old struggled in his debut, allowing 4 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, and just 3 K in 5 IP. He attacked batters with a 94.5 mph fastball and three secondaries.

Keider Montero (5): Like Vásquez, Montero was a suspect talent (5.28 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, 6.2 K/9, 1.57 WHIP), but was scheduled for two winnable starts (vs SF, at KC). The gamble paid off so far with a Win in 5 IP with o ER, 3 K and 2 BB in the first start. His changeup was the only successful secondary.

Relievers

Daniel Palencia (11): Now the Cubs’ closer with three straight Saves to go along with his 9.2 K/9 and 1.93 ERA. Must add in all Save leagues.

Ronny Henriquez (8): Possibly elite closer with a 12.4 K/9 and 1.78 ERA (3.60 xFIP). It’d be nice to see the 4.6 BB/9 come down, but he’s now got the role.

Robert Garcia (7): With Luke Jackson struggling (5.17 ERA), Garcia got the team’s last Save and could move into the closer’s role.

Ben Casparius (7): The 26-year-old righty has been elite this season with a 2.94 ERA (2.87 xFIP), 0.98 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9. While he’s not in the Dodgers’ rotation, he could if more injuries happen. Right, the game’s best long reliever.

Jorge López (6): With Kyle Finnegan on the IL, López (6.00 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 6.0 K/9) is the default closer in Washington.

Players Added in NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues Added High Winning Bid Low Winning Bid
Daniel Palencia 11 106 43
Marcelo Mayer 9 279 38
Ronny Henriquez 8 54 5
Matt Vierling 7 38 2
Robert Garcia 7 30 7
Ryan Yarbrough 7 27 3
Jacob Lopez 7 18 2
Ben Casparius 7 15 3
Mike Tauchman 7 11 4
Matt Wallner 6 146 14
Andrew Benintendi 6 59 1
Kyle Harrison 6 44 6
Evan Carter 6 37 4
Jorge Lopez 6 24 4
Robert Hassell III 6 22 2
Randy Vasquez 6 21 1
Mick Abel 5 71 4
Mike Burrows 5 32 14
Kody Clemens 5 28 5
Abraham Toro 5 23 2
Angel Martinez 5 20 2
Lenyn Sosa 5 16 5
Keider Montero 5 9 1
Edward Cabrera 4 51 25
Carlos Narvaez 4 38 10
Caleb Durbin 4 37 17
Stephen Kolek 4 34 1
Tommy Kahnle 4 30 12
Charlie Morton 4 23 5
Joshua Palacios 4 11 2
Jake Bauers 4 5 5





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

9 Comments
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LD SmithMember since 2025
1 year ago

Finnegan is not officially on the IL, is he?

Matt BMember since 2021
1 year ago
Reply to  LD Smith

No, and he was available yesterday, apparently.

dodgerbleu
1 year ago

I think Kody Clemens is getting sold extremely short here.

He is underperforming his Statcast peripherals a smidge, his average exit velocity is 96.6, which would be 2nd in MLB if he had enough PA to qualify. His HardHit would be 2nd in MLB. Since he joined MN, his average exit velocity has been 99.1, HardHit 72.2%, both would be tops in baseball if sustained. By a lot.

His walk rate is the highest its ever been, has never had a 30% K rate, the highest its ever been has been 29.5% in his short cameo with MN, which is clearly some kind of trade off for power that’s working. His max velocity hasn’t increased, he’s just hitting every ball on average 100 MPH. Out of the last 13 games MN has played, he started 11 of them and came in as a PH in a 12th.

Right below Clemens you state Angel Martinez has started 8 out the last 10 as if it’s a good thing. If 8 out of 10 is positive, surely 11 out of 13 is more positive. And unlike Martinez, Clemens is qualified at 2B now.

He has arguably the best batted ball metrics and has moved up the defensive spectrum since joining MN. Y’all need to pick Clemens in your league if he’s still available. Don’t wait, don’t walk, run, run quickly and pick him up.

AnonMember since 2025
1 year ago
Reply to  dodgerbleu

Agree. His numbers are 100% supported by his underlying metrics. Just scooped him in my league and already got a dinger out of it.

That said, he’s a 40 grade prospect that had a career 80 wRC+ in 400 PA coming into this year. You have to question how long he’ll keep mashing it like an elite hitter. Buxton is back tomorrow with Wallner not far behind so his playing time will dwindle the instant he shows any signs of cooling off. The Twins get 3 righties this weekend but then have 3 lefties in the next 7 games after that

A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
1 year ago
Reply to  Anon

To put some more cold water on this, batted ball metrics can help discern whether a hitter has been likely lucky/unlucky, but they can’t tell you whether a hot streak is sustainable. Clemens has a mediocre minor league track record and has never mashed this well, so chances are that this is not sustainable. But sure, worth a speculative pickup as a lotto ticket or to ride the hot hand.

dodgerbleu
1 year ago
Reply to  Anon

Oh I don’t want to oversell him either, this is out of nowhere, and I expect regression. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen improvement of this shape, it’s bizarre to not have his max EV increase yet see the average velocity jump that high. He’s averaging 88% of his max EV, that in particular feels unsustainable. IDK how to look up the highest on record, but without looking, I’d bet this would set a record, so it almost has to be a hot streak. A crazy hot streak though!

He’s playing 2B for them and doesn’t seem to be a defensive liability there, so I think it’s more about Lewis and Lee than it is Buxton or Wallner even though with Wallner back it clogs up DH a bit. Not that he’s isolated from returning players, but it seemingly gives him some insulation and a longer leash and I think it’s most likely to end up as a platoon with him and Lee.

Assuming that Buxton and Lewis stay healthy and for some insane reason the Twins keep rolling Ty France out at 1B, I think he’s a chance to grab a 2B that will push 20 HR this year off the wire. With upside for more playing time and potentially some upside in performance beyond that. Batted ball data starts to stabilize around 70 BIP, and his is already so good over 42 BIP that short of a weak ground ball and pop up to the catcher frenzy in his next 28 BIP, he’s assured to at least look like he’s an improved hitter compared to before.

JuuuustAnotherBaseballFanMember since 2018
1 year ago

Don’t forget the sudden cameo of Jorge Mateo, who is stealing bases like a fiend in the short blip of time before he fades away again.

Last edited 1 year ago by JuuuustAnotherBaseballFan
carterMember since 2020
1 year ago

The him starting over Mullins is a weird thing

bersmrMember since 2018
1 year ago

I assume you meant to say that Carter only starts against righties. In any event, although he is a good outfielder and baserunner, after what happened in ’24 and his less than auspicious 33 at bats prior to getting hurt when called up this year, how much he can get on base and whether any power will accompany it is very much in question.