Archive for Mock Draft Analysis

Beat the Shift Podcast – Mock Draft Episode – w/ Chris Welsh

The Mock Draft episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Chris Welsh

Strategy Section

  • General snake draft strategy
  • Early round pitcher strategy
  • Differences between various formats & depths
  • Tackling closers
  • Tackling catchers
  • KDS preferences
  • What is the most important statistic to focus on?
  • What is a category that you could get on the waiver wire?

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Ottoneu: Mock Draft Experimental

At the start of the new year, I was invited to participate in an Ottoneu mock draft with other industry people and I was excited to take on the challenge. We mocked a 12-team, FanGraphs points Ottoneu league. Each team had a $400 salary and a 40-man roster to fill. Chad Young tweeted his analysis of each pick and you can follow each piece of valuable insight here. But, he was being polite when he wrote:

 

The truth is, I didn’t really mean to do it, draft three top closers, that is. I won’t make excuses, but if I did make excuses I’d say that I’ve never actually participated in an Ottoneu first-year draft, both of my Ottoneu teams were inherited and that I had also never participated in slow draft before. I had a hard time keeping track of where I placed bids. Insert emoji of person with hands up in the air here. Yes, I made a rookie mistake and I am not a rookie, I swear. But, mock drafts are mock drafts and if you go into one without some kind of planned experiment, then what’s the point? My experiment? Come out with guns blazing! Pay top dollar for top dollar players. What ended up happening when it was all said and done? Let’s dig in a little and find out.

Couch Managers Otto Mock

Hypothesis: Cornering the closer market will add value to my team.

The elite pen that Chad was intrigued by is projected by Steamer to be worth 1722.6 points. This draft took place prior to the unfortunate news that Liam Hendrick was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, so I used his 2022 points in this calculation. Here’s a pricing break-down:

The Elite Pen
Name Team ADP IP rPTS PTS aPOS Projected 2023 Salary
Edwin Díaz NYM 22 64 609.3 -16.9 45.4 $29.50 $23.00
Emmanuel Clase CLE 27 70 583.5 -20.2 45.4 $26.27 $25.00
Liam Hendriks* CHW 127 57.2 529.8 -16.8 26.9 $11.04 $19.00
*2022 Hendriks stats and value
**Projections use FanGraphs Auction calculator and Steamer

The crazy part about this is I technically got a discount on Diaz and Clase when assuming FanGraphs auction calculator values. But, what happens when you corner the market? You end up with a surplus of stats and while that’s valuable, it means that you valued it more than everyone else. If this were a real league, I’m sure it would be difficult to trade away one of these closers and get a return that I was happy with. Add to that the fact that Hendriks has more important things to fight through than the bottom of the ninth, and you can see that I’ve placed too many eggs in one basket. Larry Schechter wrote about this exact issue in his book, “Winning Fantasy Baseball”. I’ll change some of the things Schechter wrote to fit my situation, but the idea is the same:

“Suppose [Lucas]…goes over-board on closing pitchers because there are too many great deals (in his opinion) to pass up. Later he needs to try to trade a pitcher for a hitter. He has several [relief] pitchers he can trade…When he offers these pitchers for a trade, he will be offered hitters more in line with the auction price, not his value. In other words, nobody else thought [Clase] was worth more than $23, so he’s not going to receive more than a $23 hitter for [Clase]. He will be forced to trade [Clase] for a $23 hitter, thus negating the gain he thought he had by buying [Clase].”

Lastly, suppose I still was aggressive with closers and took both Clase and Hendriks, but used the $23 I spent on Díaz on a starting pitcher. In hindsight, which is 20/20, I would spend that $23 on a pitcher who actually went for $22. Maybe the bidding would have gone further up, but for this exercise, this logic is all I have. Here are the starting pitchers who went for $22:

What Could Have Been: SPs for $23
Name Team ADP IP rPTS PTS aPOS Projected Salary Salary
Yu Darvish SDP 79 189.2 872.6 16.0 $6.96 $23.95 $22.00
Julio Urías LAD 58 190.2 800.0 6.9 $6.96 $14.88 $22.00
**Projections use FanGraphs Auction calculator and Steamer

Just the points boost alone is enough to show how trading out that third closer for a more dependable stater at the same price makes more sense. Had I drafted Darvish instead of Díaz, I would have had an additional ~200 projected points to add to my total.

Conclusion: Drafting three elite closers is not the way to go, but drafting two and a good starting pitcher seems like a good strategy.

Hypothesis: Being aggressive and paying for top talent is better than waiting and spreading your money more evenly.

In addition to locking in closers and cornering the market like a savage, ruthless entrepreneur who walks out of his apartment building, onto the streets and screams, “Cash rules everything around me! C.R.E.A.M.! Get the money!”, I dove straight into top-tier hitter bidding:

The “Gunz Blazin'” Offense
Name Team ADP PA rPTS PTS aPOS Projected Salary Salary
Juan Soto SDP 10 675 1131.4 48.3 $19.96 $69.24 $65.00
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 13 653 1050.4 38.2 $14.67 $53.85 $54.00
Julio Rodriguez SEA 4 679 952.7 26.0 $19.96 $46.94 $47.00
Alex Bregman HOU 81 660 887.9 17.9 $14.32 $33.21 $31.00
Adley Rutschman BAL 67 582 731.6 -1.6 $26.60 $25.99 $26.00
*Projections use FanGraphs Auction calculator and Steamer

Having a roster with Vlad, Adley, J-Rod, and Soto made me giddier than a Canadian woman at a Shania Twain concert. But, that’s a lot of money spent early on. What we have here is a real “Stars and Scrubs” approach. The roster image above showed what I would consider my starting lineup, but just take a look at my bench:

Couch Managers Otto Mock2

That’s a long list of $1 players, but there are a few that I believe in. Regardless, how would things have looked had I passed on just one of my top targets, let’s say Julio Rodriguez at $47? Using the same logic as before and adding $1 to a few middle-of-the-pack players, I could have turned Julio Rodriguez into Seiya Suzuki and Jazz Chisholm, for example:

A One for Two Swap
Name Team ADP PA rPTS PTS aPOS Projected Salary Salary
Seiya Suzuki CHC 108 589 773.9 3.7 $19.96 $24.63 $24.00
Jazz Chisholm Jr. MIA 48 589 726.1 -2.3 $16.55 $15.25 $23.00
*Salary represents what I would have paid if I bid one more dollar and won

Obviously, the combination of these two players means I get more points, but who would have not been drafted? Well, that would have clearly been Adam Frazier. Here’s a breakdown:

J-Rod (rPTS 952.7) + Frazier (rPTS 445.8) = 1398.5 rPTS @ $48

or

Seiya (rPTS 773.9) + Jazz (rPTS 726.1) = 1500.0 rPTS @ $47

Conclusion: While there are a lot of assumptions being made here, the two middle-of-the-road players look better on paper. I’m saving $1 and generating 100 more points.

Hypothesis: I can still get a lot of playing time out of $1 players.

Last week I wrote about the value in keeping, or not keeping, prospects on your roster, especially if they are being paid more than $1. This is a tricky part of Ottoneu. First, Ottoneu points leagues have 162-game maximums for all positional players, so you have to be careful with how often you’re setting a full lineup. Maximums can sneak up on you when you least expect it. Having a solid bench is very important, but how much do you want to pay for players who will rarely be plugged into your starting squad? It’s a difficult thing to balance, but I tend to rely on plate appearances when stocking my bench. It’s terrible when you need to plug in a couple of substitutes, but everyone on the bench is in AAA or rarely starting. Here are all my $1 players’ projected plate appearances by steamer:

$1 Players
Name Team G PA AB
Kolten Wong SEA 120 513 457
Myles Straw CLE 122 480 424
Miguel Rojas LAD 100 425 389
Adam Frazier BAL 113 458 412
Josh Donaldson NYY 102 434 377
Jurickson Profar 110 475 415
Carlos Santana PIT 117 488 415
Jorge Mateo BAL 76 295 272
Yuli Gurriel 91 384 351
*Steamer

While many people target upside with their $1 bids, as they should, I chose to go with players who were still available and who can be counted on for plate appearances. I forced myself into this situation because of my aggressive spending from the outset, but I’d rather have players who I know I can plug in when I need to instead of players whose playing time may not be very reliable. The aggravating part about this strategy was that I was out of the bidding for players like J.D. Martinez ($3), Juan Yepez ($3), Jean Segura ($3), Gavin Lux ($2), and Brandon Drury ($2). These players were all taken at great value and I missed out.

Conclusion: Spending early and going after high-value players early forces you to fill your bench with $1 players, but $1 players can still carry playing time.

All in all, I’m happy with my lineup, I think I put together a decent rotation and I locked in the two best closers in the game. Things would have to go right for me to work into the top three at the end of the season, however. I would need a Giolito bounce back, a Morton-like Morton season, Tyler Anderson’s 2022 to be the real deal and for my players to stay healthy. That’s a lot to ask for, but if it all goes wrong, I can always start a re-build, tear down. That’s the fun part of Ottoneu.


Beat the Shift Podcast – Mock Draft Episode w/ Chris Welsh

The Mock Draft Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Chris Welsh

Tout Wars Head to Head Recap

Strategy Section

  • General Draft Strategy
    • Push up saves/steals/starters? What is the right time to roster them?
  • KDS Selection for 2022
  • What is the best time to reach for your “favorites,” “targets” or “upside players?
  • Should you draft prospects in redraft leagues?

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Mock Auction Prices vs. Projections – Overpaid Players

Following up on yesterday’s article on “underpaid” players from the Ottoneu mock auction, today we will look at players who were “overpaid.” As with “underpaid” yesterday, “overpaid” is probably not the best term for these guys, but I think it’s the clearest, so we are going with that.

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Mock Auction Prices vs. Projections – Underpaid Players

While the results of the Ottoneu mock auction are basically the only window we have into market price for 2022, they aren’t the only valuation we have. Steamer Projections are available and can be used to start to determine player values. Looking at where those values differ the most can be informative, both in identifying potential buy lows (or players to avoid) and in finding patterns that can be useful in future auctions.

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How to Interpret a Mock Auction

If you follow me on Twitter (or read my last article), you know that I have been deep into a mock auction with a set of 13 other Ottoneu experts. As I am writing, we are nearing 460 players auctioned, leaving us just 20 guys from the finish line. By the time you are reading, we may be done!

With the completion of the auction, Ottoneu players will have 480 new data points to consider as they are planning for their 2022 seasons, and there has been discussion in the Ottoneu community about how to think about, interpret and use those new data points. I wanted to offer my thoughts on how I would use this mock auction – and how I wouldn’t.

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Value Gainers From Ottoneu Mock Auction

A group of Ottoneu experts, including myself, my FanGraphs colleague Jake Mailhot, Surplus Calculator creator Justin Vibber, and Ottoneu creator Niv Shah are in the midst of a mock Ottoneu auction, drafting a full start-up league of 480 players. The goal is to get some insight into how the market is shaping up for the 2022 season before auction season heats up in February. Hopefully we can learn something early about who should have trade value, who you should target at auctions, and who you might be able to cut and get back cheaper.

As of when I am writing (late Wednesday night, December 1), we are 223 players deep and I wanted to start analyzing some of what we are seeing. To start, we’ll look at some of the biggest value gainers since the start of the 2021 season.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Mock Draft Episode w/ Ray Murphy

The Mock Draft Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ray Murphy

Strategy Section

  • Snake Draft
    • General Strategy & Method
    • Strategy differences between shallow & deeper formats
    • Early observations of 2021 drafts

RotoBaller Mock Draft

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Draft Retrospective: 2020 RazzSlam (15th Place of 216)

Often, when an analyst reviews his or her draft, it is typically ahead of the season about to be played. That makes sense! We are planning for 2021, not 2020. It might behoove us, however, to review how drafts actually went. I’m guilty of doing the former and not the latter! With the dawn of the second annual Razzball RazzSlam best ball tournament upon us, I figured now is as good a time as any to rectify this.

Last year, I entered the inaugural RazzSlam having played, and subsequently bombed, in a couple of best ball drafts on Fantrax. I wanted to dip my toe in, get my feet wet, and other joint-aquatic/podiatric idioms, so I entered a couple of low-stakes leagues, figuring I could wing it. As foreshadowed, I fared poorly. I, in fact, could not wing it.

Having failed somewhat spectacularly for a guy who fancies himself at least somewhat knowledgeable and/or adept at fantasy baseball, I wanted to right my wrong by taking my preparation for RazzSlam seriously. I finished 15th out of 216 participants (18 leagues of 12 teams each), somehow not winning my league but ending up one of the highest 2nd-place finishers above some league winners. I’m proud! Because I expected another unmitigated disaster.

Hence, I figure it might be worth reviewing, with hindsight, one of my rare successful drafts. We played out the season already, so instead of trying to outline tips and tricks up front, it might be easiest to simply show you the draft results, each player’s stats, and the clear takeaways from my strategy — some intentional, some not.

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Assessing 4 Unexpected Hitting Breakouts

The 60-game season fostered a lot of unexpected stat lines. Of course, the standard six-month seasons deliver them, too, but obviously the smaller sample breeds more volatility so let’s take a look at four big risers and see if we want to buy in for 2021.

Alex Dickerson, OF SFG | .298/.371/.576, 10 HR, 27 RBI, 28 R, 0 SB in 170 PA

Let’s get this out of the way immediately. He did get 30% of his home runs in one beautiful night at Coors Field, but that alone didn’t sustain his line. In his final 66 PA after the 3-homer game, he hit .356/.424/.627 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, and 12 R. He did have a meager .694 OPS in the run up to that career night, but a .231 BABIP was doing some heavy lifting there as he was still pacing toward a useful 22 HR/76 RBI full season.

His massive platoon split tempers the fantasy upside. He has a .278/.348/.514 line with 24 HR, 81 RBI, 84 R, and 4 SB in 551 PA v. righties while posting just a .687 OPS in 102 PA v. lefties. This will likely keep him relegated to a platoon role with guys like Austin Slater and Darin Ruf 러프 filling in for Dickerson against lefties. As such, it makes Dickerson a deeper league option.

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