Mock Auction Prices vs. Projections – Underpaid Players

Most of these names are not huge surprises. Brantley and Blackmon are older players, and older players are often undervalued at auction. They are unexciting, they offer less long-term value, and managers are worried about decline. Add in the fact that Blackmon put up a poor season and looks like he might be in decline, and this is not shocking. Targeting older players who might be undervalued is a great way for a team ready to compete to grab relatively inexpensive production. Brantley in particular is a guy I will look at in a lot of my leagues, but I suspect other veterans – Clayton Kershaw, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Donaldson, etc. – will come at a discount in many leagues because they are not young and exciting.

Others have extenuating circumstances. Laureano is going to miss the start of the season, but as far as Steamer is concerned, his projection is no different than any other player who will miss time (he’s projected for 126 games as of now). But for fantasy managers, we already know he is a dead roster spot for a month. Ozuna’s price was almost assuredly depressed by managers who simply don’t want to roster him – I was not going to bid on him at all, and having a few managers simply sitting out on a guy will result in prices like this. For Laureano, this likely makes him an interesting buy low – yes, you need to account for the missed time, but Steamer is already doing that. For Ozuna, price isn’t really a factor for me. I am just not going to bid on him.

Some of the others are interesting. Stanton and Judge have a history of missing time, which may be driving down their prices. Judge is projected for 150 games and I can’t blame managers for thinking that is optimistic. Stanton, however, is projected for 138 games, a number he has surpassed in three of the last four full seasons. He may just be undervalued, which might make him a bit of a buy-low/sleeper in drafts this spring. When looking at projected values, always look at projected PA or games. If you think a guy is likely to play more or less, you can use that to buy or sell on the projected value.

Joe and Sanchez appear to be breakouts that Steamer is buying, but managers in this auction may have been hedging. Even if you see and believe the $8 projection on Sanchez, maybe you aren’t ready to pay full-price? I actually agree with hedging on breakouts, but if ZiPS, THE BAT, and others are equally high on these two, it might be a good idea to “overpay” vs. the market to get them.

Dickerson and Kepler are both guys who posted strong seasons as recently as 2020, but really struggled in 2021, and it appears the managers in this draft have written off Dickerson and downgraded Kepler over those struggles, maybe more than they should. OF felt shallow to me in this auction, particularly late, and I think I need to upgrade these two given what we know they are capable of.

Tapia is sorta like Dickerson and Kepler, except the highs are not as high and the skillset is not as good a fit for the format. But Steamer is still a fan. The challenge I have with him is that Steamer is projecting a .321 wOBA, which Tapia has only managed twice in his career – over 171 PA in 2017 (.321) and over 206 PA in 2020 (.338). I just don’t buy that he’ll put up that good a season.

Naylor is coming off a brutal injury and is a guy who has not put up the numbers many projections and writers (myself included) expected or hoped for. I suspect he’ll continue to be little rostered or underpaid at least until he gets back on the field. And I am not sure the projection systems will do a great job accounting for this injury given how rough it was.