The pre-season prediction reviews continue this week and today I recap my bold hitter league leaders. Since these players were meant to be bold choices, I purposely did not pick any of the obvious guys or anyone I thought might not be considered very bold. Though I expected to hit a couple of my bold predictions, it would have been quite a surprise if I actually hit on any of these league leaguers. Let’s see how I did.
For my next few posts, I am going to look back at some of my early season player evaluations, good or bad.
Austin Jackson: Breakout Candidate? 4/3
What I said then:
It is way too early to draw any real conclusions from Austin Jackson‘s start to the season. Most of his production has come from a completely unsustainable BABIP [.563]. Besides the high BABIP, he is also showing improved plate discipline. While the sample size is way too small right now, I would continue to track his K% [21%] and see if he has better control over the strike zone as the season goes on. Any chance for a breakout will be tied to lowering his strikeout numbers.
And now:
Everyone knew that the BABIP was unsustainable and it ended up (.371) almost identical to his career value (0.370). Jackson was able to maintain his lower K% over the course of the season and hit for .300 for the first time in the majors.
Justin Morneau: Is There Any Hope? 4/18
What I said then:
Justin Morneau has not had a good start to his season. His walk rate and power seem to be a concern. His walk rate is not out of place when taking into account his IBBs. His power loss is a concern though. He will just have to play more to see if the power loss continues.
And now:
Monrneau had two months of good power after I wrote the article, but he was not able to sustain the power spike and it dropped as the season went on.
ISO
First 2 months: .291
Last 4 months: .132
Average distance on his HR and Flyballs
First 2 months: 302 ft.
Last 4 months: 269 ft
His ISO was cut in half and his batted ball distance saw a loss of over 30 feet.
The weird thing is that he went on the DL in May and when he came back, he had his best month of the season.
Brennan Boesch’s Disappointing Start to the Season 4/23
What I said then:
Brennan Boesch has been a fantasy disappointment this season. …. I would look for some level of rebound, but he needs to hit the ball with more authority to have the season some people anticipated.
And now:
All Boesch had in him was a dead cat bounce. Horrible season.
Wainwright and Pujols: Rough Starts 4/23
What I said then:
Adam’s 2007 season looks to be a nice season to compare to 2012. The fastball velocities are identical. They are the seasons when he had his highest BABIPs (0.304 and 0.325). Adam had is worst season in terms of ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.40) in 2007 until this season happened.
And now:
Season: ERA, WHIP, BABIP, Velocity
2007: 3.70, 1.40 ,.304, 89.4
2012: 3.94, 1.25, .315, 90.1
The two seasons ended being almost similar. At the time of the article, his FIP (6.52), xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.28) averaged out to 4.31 which is close to his final ERA of 3.94.
What I said then:
Albert has not been living up to his expectation so far this season. Looking over his stats, two values stick out as potential areas of concern, his walk rate and power.
And now:
BB%, NiIBB%
2008: 16%, 8%
2009: 16%, 7%
2010: 15%, 7%
2011: 9%, 6%
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 7%, 3% (2 of his 5 BB have been IBB)
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 8%, 4%
Year: ISO
2009: 0.331
2010: 0.284
2011: 0.242
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: .108
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 0.245
Year: Flyball and HR batted ball distances
2010: 313 ft
2011: 303 ft
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 275 ft
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 281 ft
Albert was able to rebound a bit from the beginning of the season, but not even close to his previous seasons. I see an Alex Rodriguez fustrating decline happening with Pujols.
Espinosa and Roberts: 2B Ownership Decliners 4/30
What I said then:
After being one of my favorite stories of 2011, I have quickly soured on Roberts. He will have to hit more line drives and less pop ups for his value to go in the positive direction.
And now:
He was able to increase his LD% and decrease his IFFB%.
Triple slash and BABIP at time of article: .159/.243/.254, .188
Triple slash and BABIP after the article: .249/.307/.381, .283
He rebounded, but he will not flirt with a 20/20 season again.
What I said then:
I see no hope right now for Danny. He needs to make improvement in his plate discipline and/or power stroke to become an everyday player at 2B in deep leagues, not alone 10 to 14 team leagues.
And now:
Espinosa wasn’t able to drop his K% or regain his HR power. He has increase his LD% to help bring up his AVG to around 0.250 to make him a somewhat rosterable option.
Walker and Weeks: 2B Ownership Decliners 5/2
What I said then:
While he [Weeks] was a little lucky in 2011, he has been extremely unlucky so far this season. I would expect his AVG to increase as a few more batted balls begin to fall for hits.
And now:
His BABIP did go from 0.207, at the time of the article, to 0.270 over the rest of the season. It did not get to the .300+ BABIP predicted in the article, but it did improve.
What I said then:
Right now, Neil looks like a Plug-n-Play guy if owned in a shallow league. The high average won’t be a drag and he will get a few counting stats. In deeper leagues, the options available on the waiver wire are probably thin, so his owners may just have to ride out the power slump.
And now:
2012 Marcel prediction (closest projection in PA), 2012 stats:
PA: 578, 530
HR: 12, 14
Run: 68, 62
RBI: 72, 69
SB: 7, 7
AVG: .278, .280
Neil Walker ended up producing just like he was expected to produce. I bet he does the same thing next year.
1. Josh Johnson will make fewer starts than Johan Santana
Johnson made 31 starts this season, which is his highest total since 2009. The league leader made 34 starts and was not named Johan Santana, though if you anagram the letters in “Bruce Chen”… you get Bee Crunch, which isn’t going to help my cause here. Santana, as it turns out, made just 21 starts and succomed to lower back inflammation that ended his season. His shoulder is fine, which has to be a relief to the Mets, but it does me no good.
Verdict: Swing and a Miss Read the rest of this entry »
It has been nice waking up over the past few days and having one less item to complete, specifically setting my fantasy baseball lineups. I am going to enjoy the extra time, but not for long. The off season for fantasy baseball has begun and it means that preparation for next season needs to begin. The following are a few concepts I follow during the off season.
Winterize Keeper Teams – I talked about this concept last year and still believe in it.
On Thursday, I reviewed my official 10 bold predictions. This pre-season, I took it one step further and decided to throw out 10 more bold predictions. Let’s see if these fare any better than the first set.
Personally, I hold the old-school belief that the well-rounded player with speed and defense is the best selection for the MVP hardware, but that’s of no concern until I have a vote. In the meantime, I’m left wondering what this debate means for fantasy.
We fantasy-obsessed know that this debate foreshadows a more important one: who should be the number one pick next year. Maybe the things we know about the players now can help us make that decision a little easier, but the conversation can still tell us something about the things we value in the fantasy game.
The word “re-visited” can have two very different connotations depending on what it is you are re-visiting. Re-visiting a place or a time you loved – your childhood home perhaps, or your college campus – can be filled with nostalgia, happy memories and joy. Of course you can also re-visit something that makes you depressed, something that brings back horrible memories or terrible feelings.
Unfortunately, this article is likely to be more of the latter than the former. Prior to the start of the season, I laid out ten bold predictions and not only did most of them not come to fruition (which is to be expected as they were, after all, bold predictions), but many of them failed spectacularly. But, accountability matters, and so today I present to you a retrospective on ten bold predictions gone wrong.
I hate them. I hate head-to-head leagues. I won’t win a single one this year. And, obviously I’m not saying I had the best team in all five of those leagues, but I figured I’d win at least one of them.
Nope.
Prior to the season, I offered three players I didn’t want on any of my teams — those designed to do well, leagues with rewards for horrific play are another matter entirely — and I stuck to my guns, taking not one of the three for any of my teams. In fact, I don’t believe I used any of them in any of my daily leagues either, though that’s much tougher to prove. In any case, I didn’t make a habit out of it.
So, in the interest of accountability, here are the three players I said I wouldn’t draft along with how they did this season.
I’m not having my best fantasy year — more on that another time — and so I found myself on the edge of my seat this last weekend, trying to make sure I made the playoffs in three leagues. (Two others I’m cruising in, and the remaining seven or so are roto). In one of the close head-to-head leagues, I was victorious and squeaked in on the last day. In another, I found out I had another week to make my case. And then there was that one. I won my weekly matchup 7-3 on the last week and felt good about it. The guy ahead of me in the standings lost his matchup 3-7. I went and did the math.
My team had a 118-98-4 record. His team had a 118-96-6 record. I was out, in the closest final standings situation I’d had in a head-to-head league.
Before I get cool story bro’ed, there’s more to this than just my fantasy team. There was at least one universal lesson hidden within all the pain.
