Let’s move along in our 2020 review of underlying skill metrics to the plate discipline rates. While the shortened season makes it difficult to evaluate many metrics, and especially counting stats, plate discipline rates don’t take as long to reach a reasonable sample size because it uses a pitch-based denominator which ends up as a larger number than most other rate denominators. From 2015 through 2019, Z-Contact% had a correlation coefficient with K% of about -0.82 when requiring a minimum of only 100 plate appearances. That’s pretty darn strong! So let’s review and discuss the Z-Contact% improvers versus 2019, that recorded at least 100 plate appearances in each season.

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A week ago, I reviewed the average fly ball distance laggards and discussed the surprising names. Today, let’s look at the decliners, those hitters who lost the most average fly ball distance (AFBD) versus 2019. There will likely be some overlap with the laggards list, so I won’t discuss the same names again. Once again, I’ll require a minimum of 10 Statcast fly balls to qualify for the list.

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Last week, I listed and discussed the barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB) surgers versus 2019. I apparently totally forgot to review the decliners, instead moving on to average fly ball distance leaders and laggards. So let’s get back to Brls/TFB analysis and check out the biggest decliners.

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Maximum exit velocity (max EV) measures a player’s hardest-hit ball, typically measured within a single season and compared against other players. Our Mike Podhorzer has documented its leaders and laggards. Rob Arthur, one of baseball’s best public analysts and whom I admire greatly, wrote intelligently on the importance of max EV as a projection-buster back in 2018. Max Freeze (real name) blends extremely hard hits (114+ mph) with launch angle to look for possible power breakouts ahead of 2020.

It has been established (by Al Melchior and me, in fact) that max EV, while an effective indicator, is not the or even a superior indicator of hitter power.

That’s not to say max EV is useless, by any means. It is altogether a different breed of metric than, say, barrel rate (Barrel%, either per plate appearance [PA] or per batted ball event [BBE]) or average exit velocity (EV), both to which fantasy baseball analysts refer much more often. The latter two, and many others, are rate metrics that need large sample sizes to become reliable — or, in common parlance, to “stabilize.” (More on that here, from our former and beloved Eno Sarris.)

Meanwhile, max EV is not a rate or average but a singular data point. It can happen at any moment in time — including the very first batted ball of a hitter’s season. This makes it an intriguing addition to the ol’ tool belt insofar as it could become “reliable” (not necessarily in the statistical sense) much sooner than would barrels or EV. Potentially, we could use max EV loosely as a leading indicator of where a hitter’s barrel rate, average EV, or even weighted on-base average on contact (wOBAcon) might eventually settle.

So: what are the merits of max EV?

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With fewer games for extreme performances to regress back toward player and league averages, it stands to reason that surger and decliner lists are going to be pretty lengthy and more surprising than normal. In addition, the degree in which the metric being analyzed surged or declined is likely to be much greater than in past, full seasons. So let’s remember that when reviewing 2020 numbers and put much less stock into the fact that a player doubled or tripled some rate from 2019, and instead simply consider that the player may have enjoyed skills growth that could potentially carry over into 2021. Today, let’s review the barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB) surgers. Many of these same names appeared on the leaders list posted on Tuesday, so I’ll try discussing only those not on that list.

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The 2021 draft season may be the most unpredictable one … ever. While several rule changes (e.g. NL DH) can cause some evaluation inconsistencies, the biggest monkey wrench to deal with will be the lack of previous season stats. Projection systems will weight the 60-game 2020 season (37% of a normal season) to historical averages but what are those who don’t use traditional projections systems? Or read or listen to people who don’t care for them in order to create a compelling narrative? It’s time to anchor some historical context around those narratives.

All analyses “should” start with at least some set of weights. For those who start with one, they’ll have an advantage. For those who guess the correct one, they’ll have a huge edge. The issue with setting weights is how to create a short season one that fills all the narratives.

First, most of the players were rushed to get game-ready and were not 100% ready when the season started. So the beginning of the season stats could be used to replicate this ramping up period, but the weather was still warm at the season’s end increasing offensive output. Maybe the entire first month should be ignored with everything in flux. Possibly the last two because that were the 2020 regular season months. played. So, I decided to look into all the possible options including a horrible first attempt.
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This month last year, Connor Kurcon of Six Man Rotation set out to quantify the location aspect of command (or “LRP”). By establishing an accounting system that credited and debited pitchers for changes in ball-strike counts based on the attack zone of and hitter’s disposition (take? swing? ball in play?) for every pitch, he effectively created an alternative to Pitch Value (PVal) that rewards optimal movement through ball-strike counts but with much more pitcher and hitter context.

His findings are as you’d expect: Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander lead the pack, with Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw not far behind. Other budding aces like Jack Flaherty and Mike Clevinger pepper the list, and some pleasant surprises (such as Brendan McKay, Caleb Smith, and, for those still thirsting, Jake Odorizzi) are scattered throughout as well. Out of the bullpen, newly anointed relief ace Nick Anderson led the pack followed by the underrated Emilio Pagán, breakout reliever Giovanny Gallegos, and others.

Near the end of his post, Kurcon includes a subhead dedicated to Kyle Hendricks where he highlights how Hendricks, widely respected as a command artist, fares lukewarmly by measure of LRP. He then reminds us “LRP doesn’t paint the full picture of command.” True that.

Fortunately, Kurcon has left the door open for me to tie up loose ends with find Gs I’ve been meaning to write up for a couple of months now. Never fear, Hendricks is the command artist we know and love — it’s just that he relies heavily on incurring contact in optimal pitch locations. It is a needle very few pitchers can thread, but Hendricks does it masterfully.

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I’m as competitive as hell. I hate not winning. Simply…

So is almost everyone else. While many people search for an edge, they aren’t looking into harmful habits that erode that edge. All the gains an owner could get from researching the best players can be lost if he constantly overspends rostering them. Many times what a person considers to be an edge can actually be a hindrance. Here are several ideas that help me back and now that I’ve changed my stance
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To say the least, the 2020 fantasy baseball season will go down as a one-of-kind. A late start led to a 60 game sprint. Seven-inning double-headers. Weeks of rescheduled games because of COVID-19 positive tests. The National League DH. Twenty-eight-man rosters in September. Each of these on its own would fill the headlines. With the changes coming all at once, they felt overwhelming. I’m hoping to calm everyone if any and hopefully not all of the changes happen again. Here is some advice on how to handle the changes.

The help divided up into league setting and individual manager focus. While I inserted plenty of my own advice, I wanted to make sure as many people as possible contributed so Tweeted out and asked during my chat for input.
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Yesterday, I identified and discussed the qualified hitters who had raised their fly ball rates (FB%) the most versus last season. All else being equal, more fly balls leads to more home runs. Fantasy owners like home runs. Unfortunately, not every hitter has decided they wanted to participate in the fly ball revolution. So let’s check out the hitters who have sadly departed and experienced the biggest declines in FB% versus last season. This could help explain disappointing home run totals so far.

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