Max EV Laggards — 8/20/20

Yesterday, I identified and discussed the hitting leaders in Max Exit Velocity (MEV). While acknowledging that MEV doesn’t tell the entire story you want it to, it’s always a positive to see a higher MEV versus a lower one. Today, let’s check in on the laggards. Naturally, a lot of these are obvious, so I’ll discuss the interesting names.

After breaking out last year, Marcus Semien’s draft day cost surged. He was no longer an MI you settled on, but one you actually targeted, expecting five category production. After 103 at-bats, his power is back to his pre-2019 days (aside from his strong 2016 output). The odd thing is he has boosted his FB% to a career high, but hasn’t been able to actually take advantage by posting a single digit HR/FB rate again. His MEVs have been extremely consistent throughout his career (between 106.5 and 108.4 MPH), so this early drop is notable.

I noted this in a recent related article too, but it’s weird that Whit Merrifield is sporting his lowest career MEV, but his HR/FB rate is currently double his career mark. I wouldn’t bet on his current power output continuing, so you have to hope his running game rebounds.

I’m surprised to see Cavan Biggio’s name here, but he was actually barely higher last year, posting a MEV of 104.6 then. So while this year’s mark is a tad lower, it’s normal for the small sample of career performance we currently have. It’s surprising given his solid power output. Anyhow, he’s only recorded 79 at-bats, but his underlying metrics are pretty crazy. He has upped his FB% even higher, from his already high 2019 mark, but amazingly has kept his IFFB% low. His strikeout rate has also come down significantly to move more in line with his SwStk%. However, he has actually become even more passive, swinging at even fewer balls inside the strike zone, which normally would increase your strikeout rate. Biggio is a fascinating hitter.

Though many of his underlying skills have regressed, Christian Vazquez is so far proving that last year’s power outburst is no fluke, as his ISO has risen even higher, as has his HR/FB rate. One look at his fly ball direction distribution helps explain the increased power output despite a drop in MEV. His fly ball Pull% has skyrocketed to a career high, which is typically a positive for HR/FB rate. It’s still hard to wrap my head around thinking of him as a power hitter suddenly, but so far, there’s no reason to think he’s about to shed this new label.

David Dahl was also covered recently and he missed Tuesday’s game with back tightness. Now you have to wonder if that has been affecting him. It’s certainly plausible. Or, of course, it’s just small sample randomness.

Eddie Rosario’s MEV has risen each season since 2016, so this year would mark a reversal of that trend, as it currently sits at a career low. It hasn’t affected his ISO or HR/FB rate though, as both sit at career highs. One reason the ISO is at a career high is his FB%, already above average, has spiked even higher to a career high 50%. I’m most encouraged about the improvements in his strikeout and walk rates, as the former has nearly tripled to a career high, while the latter has now declined every season since 2016.

Anthony Rendon missed the first couple of games due to an oblique injury, but has made up for it by posting a career high HR/FB rate. Since the sample size here is even smaller than most on this list, his underlying skills look real wacky, some good, some bad. It’s worth noting that Rendon’s MEV has declined every single season since 2016, so this has been a trend. It hasn’t affected his power, though, as his HR/FB rate and ISO marks have generally ticked up, with a small backpedal in 2018. This year, his fly ball Pull% is up markedly, sitting above 30% for the first time after being rather consistent from 2016 to 2019. More pulled flies will help offset a loss of EV, but he’ll have to continue this pull fly ball theme or his HR/FB rate will plummet right back down to the low to mid teens again.