Max EV Leaders — 8/19/20

Let’s continue perusing our new Statcast leaderboards by checking in on the Max EV (MEV) leaders. This metric is fairly simple to understand — it’s the maximum exit velocity the hitter has recorded on a batted ball this season. Just like I shared when discussing HardHit%, there are caveats for this metric. We don’t know what batted ball type the MEV was achieved. The hope is that it’s a fly ball, so the metric could hint at a batter’s HR/FB rate potential, but that isn’t necessarily the case. We also don’t know how out of character the MEV — is the batter consistently hitting balls nearly as hard, or is this particular EV a clear outlier with the rest of his EV values? Anyhow, clearly all else being equal, hitting the ball harder is better. So with all those caveats and questions out of the way, let’s check out the leaders and discuss the interesting names.

Even after Monday’s two homer game, Pete Alonso has been a bit of a disappointment for fantasy owners. If we extrapolated his home runs over 650 plate appearances, we would land on nearly 32. That’s perfectly solid, but clearly not what was expected from him after knocking 53 last year. So it’s good to see him atop the MEV leaderboard. Also realize that his HR/FB rate hasn’t dropped that much from last year. The two primary reasons why his power outburst has been merely good, but not great, is because of a jump in strikeout rate combined with a significant decline in FB%. His professional history suggests the FB% will rebound, while the fact that his SwStk% is actually down compared to last year suggests a strikeout rate improvement.

Ketel Marte was one of the more interesting players to project this season. Last year, he enjoyed a shocking power breakout, as his HR/FB rate nearly doubled from his 2018 mark, while his ISO jumped above .250, after never clearing .180. Was the power surge a fluke or had he established a new level he should be expected to maintain? The early returns suggest the former, as he has homered just once, en route to a lowly .096 ISO. Aside from the .330 average, he’s been fairly useless in fantasy. But his MEV provides optimism that he’s still got power in his bat and those homers should come…unless of course the high EV values are coming from his grounders.

I notoriously bashed Luis Robert’s draft day price, but he has done everything a fantasy owner could have ever dreamed of and impressively sits fifth overall in MEV. Of course, it would be silly to fail mentioning that he sits with a 33.7% strikeout rate and an absurd 25.1% SwStk%, so one wonders how long this strong production could possibly last for.

Manny Machado has certainly lost his luster, but he’s still hitting the ball hard and stealing a base here and there. Don’t forget, he’s still only 27 years old! I know, it’s shocking, as it feels like he’s been around forever and a whole host of young guns has taken the spotlight off him. Though it’s too early to get too excited, an encouraging sign is that he’s finally gotten his IFFB% into single digits. A high pop-up rate is one of the reasons he’s been just a league average BABIP guy throughout his career.

Jose Ramirez’s trends are pretty interesting. His MEV has risen each season since 2017, though his HR/FB rate has bounced around. His FB% has risen every single season since 2014, as he has opted for full membership in Club Fly Ball Revolution. His strikeout rate has also risen every season since 2016. It’s pretty clear that he has sold out for power, albeit gradually. Outside of last season, that transformation has worked.

Did you realize that David Peralta hasn’t posted a fly ball rate above 30% since his 2014 debut? It makes it very difficult for him to be a home run asset and take advantage of the strong MEV. His big 30 homer season required a HR/FB rate above 20%, which he only accomplished that one season. He’s a good example of why paying attention to a hitter’s FB% is so important.

Even as a keeper league owner at $1 in an AL-Only league, I didn’t really believe in Anthony Santander. He was obviously a no-brainer to keep at that price, but I didn’t expect much more than 20 homers over a full season, and meh contributions everywhere else. Glad I have been wrong so far! Not only has the power improved further this year, he has taken several other leaps forward that you might not realize. He has cut his strikeout rate significantly, to a mightily impressive 12.8%, while he has turned 2019 grounders into line drives. He now ranks 18th in baseball in LD%, after posting a well below average mark last year. His BABIP hasn’t yet responded positively, but he certainly deserves a better mark than last year, though he’ll need to continue hitting line drives to offset all the fly balls.