• Alex Avila sustained a mild concussion a few days ago.

Trainer Kevin Rand joined Ausmus in checking on Avila after Ortiz got him with his massive backswing, something he’s prone to doing. Rand asked the catcher a few questions to test for a concussion.

“He didn’t get one right,” Ausmus said. “When I had a concussion, I remember being asked particulars about the game and remembering I had to look at the scoreboard to figure out what the count was, and look in the dugout to figure out who we were playing.”

It seems and makes sense that catchers will be more concussion prone with foul balls and balls flying around their heads. So far this season, six players have gone on the DL for concussions and three have been catchers (Travis d’Arnaud, Carlos Santana, Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and the other three are outfielders (Denard Span, Aaron Hicks, Sam Fuld). I went back and looked at how many players went on the DL for concussions since the 7-day concussion DL was implemented in 2011. I didn’t just limit the search for just 7-day DL stints since a few players went immediately on the 15-day DL.

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• Jedd Gyorko’s struggles at the plate (.162/.213/.270) could be related to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. He says his foot only started bothering him on May 30th, which I don’t buy one bit.

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• MUST READ: The American Sports Medicine Institute released a position statement on Tommy John injuries. Read the whole thing. Orders.

• Angels pitching coach Mike Butcher has two theories on the increase in Tommy John surgeries. The first:

He’s one of many who believes it’s bad for kids to play only baseball year-round, which often results in them putting too much stress on arms that have not yet matured.

The second one theory I have not heard before:

And just as importantly, Butcher says too many professional pitchers are throwing from the opposite side of the rubber (meaning, a right-hander throwing from the first-base side and a left-hander throwing from the third-base side).

Butcher has found that more than 30 of the pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery this year fit that description.

“Some guys do it because they feel like they’ll be in the strike zone more, they’ll have better command that way — there’s all sorts of different philosophies about it,” Butcher said. “But for me, if you’re on the opposite side of your throwing arm on the rubber, you are constantly pronating [Definition] your arm at a higher rate than if you are on the other side. There’s no leverage behind the baseball.

Looks like another stat to track and it will nice little research project for me to do later on this year.

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Just one MASH report this week as the holiday and other commitments took up my time. Next week, I will be back on a regular schedule of a Monday and Thursday post.

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• Just a bit more analysis on Jose Fernandez. He admits the pain started during the game and pitched through the pain.

Fernandez said he felt discomfort in his elbow during his last outing on May 9, a loss to the Padres in San Diego when he was roughed up for six runs in five-plus innings. He discounted speculation that the injury occurred because he might have altered his delivery after being hit in the knee by a line drive against the Dodgers on May 4.

Even after feeling discomfort during his next start, Fernandez said he didn’t think it was anything serious.

“It never popped, it was just a little pinch,” Fernandez said. “I don’t think I altered my delivery. Everything was the same because I was trying to not let anybody see that I was in a little pain. I was trying to pitch with it without anybody knowing, not even [catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia]. I didn’t think it was anything to worry about.”

A theory I have been pondering is “Pitchers throwing at the extreme limitations of their body have to be more cognizant of possible injuries/changes”. One small change in motion could just destroy them. For pitchers who aren’t throwing as hard, a little bump isn’t as big a deal. Take a car getting a flat tire. If a Civic is driving 30 mph and hits small unexpected bump, not much damage could happen. Now if a sports car hits the same bump doing 120 mph, th resulting crash will make the 10 o’clock news.

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The Mash Report is on the paper thin side today. I have been a bit busy. I was able to go through all the injury updates and add them into the DL spreadsheet. I plan to go into more detail on some players such as Cliff Lee, Andrew Cashner,  Carlos Gonzalez and others in an additional Mash Report tomorrow. I will also have up-to-date PAIN and HURT reports.

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• It is looking like Matt Wieters may not play again in 2014. Additionally the earliest he could be back is in July.

After Wieters fully rests from the injection, the Orioles expect to get a more definitive idea about what’s going on with the elbow. Showalter has said he would like to know by July 1 whether Wieters can return behind the plate this season.

For owners in shallow leagues and short benches, I could see him as droppable right now.

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• I hate to see Jose Fernandez needing Tommy John surgery (TJS). His owners really should not have been totally surprised the injury happened. While it is impossible to predict exactly which pitchers will get injured when, Fernandez had some injury risk signs coming into the season.

1. He threw hard. When Matt Harvey had TJS last season, I looked at extreme hard throwers to see if they have more injury risk. Among only 15 starters, there was a heightened risk. I would hate to draw too many conclusions from a sample of 15, but the trend continues.

2. He threw a ton of curve balls. Over 30% in 2013 and in 2014. Previously, I found pitchers who throw their curve more than 25% of the time have a 50% chance of going on the DL.

3. He hadn’t yet established himself in the majors. Pitchers who have been able to make in the majors for three complete season are about 10% points less likely to be DL bound.

All three factors put Fernandez at a higher than normal injury risk.

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• I don’t think Manny Machado’s knee is close to 100% yet. I timed him to 1B on a double play he sprinted on (5/7, 3rd inning).  He got to 1B in 4.6 secs which is a 20, the worst possible scouting rating. The rest of his stats back this lack of speed up. No doubles since returning (51 last season). No stolen base attempts. Three grounded into double plays (1 GDP per 43 PA in 2013, 1 GDP per 14 PA in 2014). Speed score down from 3.7 to 1.4. The knee just can’t be 100% yet.

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• On Monday, Tom brought up looking at the rest of season effects on Ryan Zimmerman’s thumb injury. Tom was looking for the effects for different types of thumb injuries. Well, I can’t get that detailed. The injury database I have only goes goes down to the thumb level, not location on thumb. Even looking just at thumbs, only 28 documented players went on the DL since 2002 for thumb issues. I like to have around 50 players for a good sample, but cutting 28 in half (or more) would just not yield a decent sample size. So here is the information.

Average Age: 29.7
Median age: 29
Average DL Days: 35.2
Median DL Days: 30

Decline rate for hitters with a thumb injury
Stat: Year-1 to Year, Year to Year+1, Year-1 to Year+1
AVG: -0.010, -0.002, -0.015
OBP: -0.012, -0.004, -0.021
SLG: -0.015, -0.028, -0.044

Decline rate for hitters from age 28 to 30 season
Stat: Year-1 to Year, Year to Year+1, Year-1 to Year+1
AVG: -0.002, -0.003, -0.005
OBP: 0.000, -0.001, -0.001
SLG: -0.004, -0.006, -0.010

This season, he should see a 10 point drop in his expected AVG which will felt in his OBP and SLG. Next year, the there should be no more than the expected decline in AVG or OBP, but his SLG should drop more than expected by 20 points.

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