14) – Thumb Injuries

May 8, 2014

• On Monday, Tom brought up looking at the rest of season effects on Ryan Zimmerman’s thumb injury. Tom was looking for the effects for different types of thumb injuries. Well, I can’t get that detailed. The injury database I have only goes goes down to the thumb level, not location on thumb. Even looking just at thumbs, only 28 documented players went on the DL since 2002 for thumb issues. I like to have around 50 players for a good sample, but cutting 28 in half (or more) would just not yield a decent sample size. So here is the information.

Average Age: 29.7
Median age: 29
Average DL Days: 35.2
Median DL Days: 30

Decline rate for hitters with a thumb injury
Stat: Year-1 to Year, Year to Year+1, Year-1 to Year+1
AVG: -0.010, -0.002, -0.015
OBP: -0.012, -0.004, -0.021
SLG: -0.015, -0.028, -0.044

Decline rate for hitters from age 28 to 30 season
Stat: Year-1 to Year, Year to Year+1, Year-1 to Year+1
AVG: -0.002, -0.003, -0.005
OBP: 0.000, -0.001, -0.001
SLG: -0.004, -0.006, -0.010

This season, he should see a 10 point drop in his expected AVG which will felt in his OBP and SLG. Next year, the there should be no more than the expected decline in AVG or OBP, but his SLG should drop more than expected by 20 points.

• Since we are over a week into May, it is time to reset a pitcher’s velocity changes to their April values. The following is the velocity increase or decrease from April to May so far.

• Kenley Jansen’s velocity is coming back to his 2013 values.

• Scott Kazmir’s velocity has been seeing a slow decline.

Additionally, he is having more problems finding the strike zone.

It might be a nice time to sell high with him.

• I will champion Dane de la Rosa just a bit more. His velocity is back to 2013 levels according to the team.

De La Rosa was between 90 to 93 mph with his fastball during his most recent outing on Tuesday, according to the stadium radar gun. That’s about where he was in April of last season, though he gradually added fastball velocity as the year went on, and it’s much better than the 88.65 mph he averaged when he originally returned from a right forearm strain on April 12.

If you are in a deep league with Saves as a category, pick him up, stash on the DL (abuse league rules if possible), and see how the Angels bullpen situation works out.

• Adam Lind may return tonight.

• It is tough to see Matt Wieters with the elbow injury after starting out having a career season. I am afraid it is going to cost him some production on the plate. I may look to find a temp replacement until he is healthy enough to play in the field. If he can’t throw 100%, he is not going to be hitting 100%.

• Jeremy Hellickson plans to return around July.

If all goes well, Hellickson could be back in the starting rotation by July, if not before then.
“It’s hard to say,” the 26-year-old right-hander said. “I don’t know what the next step will be. I just keep rehabbing and keep treating it.”

• Johan Santa na is up to 88 mph which seems to have the Orioles excited.

Johan Santa na, who threw two innings in an extended spring game on Monday, had a fastball that averaged 88 mph and Orioles manager Buck Showalter — who was on hand to watch — said that’s similar to what he was throwing for his big league no-hitter.

During the season he averaged 88 mph, he had his ERA estimators near 4.00 in the NL with 22% K%, 8% BB% and 1.3 HR/9. Those values should only get worse in the AL. Maybe a desperate owner looking for pitching could get him in an AL-only league.

• Jason Motte has been touching 96 mph in his rehab appearances.

• While Aroldis Chapman may have his velocity up, he has struggled in his minor league appearances.

Fastball velocities for pitchers returning from the DL

• Gavin Floyd looks fine.