You may remember, in the before times, a game called Beat the Streak. The game challenged baseball fans to hypothetically beat one of the greatest records of all time. The idea was to pick one player each day to get a hit and to do that 57 consecutive times, beating Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hit streak record. Way back in preseason 2020 I wrote about my ambitions of becoming a millionaire by using predictive, machine learning models to aid in winning the competition. The game’s 2020 cancellation gave me time to think, time to read, time to learn how noisy my upstairs neighbors are, and time to build a better model.

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American League

Angels

• Now that Jared Walsh (.328/.343/.770, 7 HR) has a chance at major league success, he’s batting second.
• Since David Fletcher has returned from the IL, the lineup has been steady.

Astros

• They have used the exact lineup for three games in a row. Just nothing to see here.

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American League

Angels

• Matt Thaiss (.566 OPS) has started three straight games while hitting second.
• Andrelton Simmons is batting leadoff since returning from the IL.
• Luis Rengifo (.461) and Franklin Barreto (.284 OPS) aren’t playing enough to matter.

Astros

• With Jose Altuve out, Aledmys Díaz has been playing second base. He’s hitting at the bottom of the lineup against righties but bats second against lefties.

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Here is a quick look at some of the post-deadline trade lineups. Fantasy managers will need to dive in again on Sunday to see if any additional trends develop.

American League

Angels

• With David Fletcher on the IL and Tommy La Stella traded away, Andrelton Simmons is now leading off.
• With Brian Goodwin traded away, Justin Upton (.542 OPS) is now batting cleanup.
• In his first start, Franklin Barreto (career .560 OPS) is batting sixth.
• Anthony Bemboom (.192/.364/.346) is now the everyday catcher.

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Just some quick valuation changes on each MLB lineup.

American League

Angels

• I’m far from a Brian Goodwin fan but he’s an undervalued available asset. He’s hitting fine with a .836 OPS, four homers, and a steal. With Albert Pujols, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, and Jo Adell all struggling at the plate, he’s now started seven games in a row.

• David Fletcher and Tommy La Stella are cemented into the top two lineup spots.
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I went through the few National League lineups to see if there was a change in a player’s value different from preseason expectations. Here are my thoughts on each team.

Braves

• They are using separate lineups against different handed pitchers. Matt Adams and Ender Inciarte are facing the righties and Adam Duvall and Johan Camargo are facing the lefties.
• Ronald Acuña Jr. has not got going yet with a (.143/.250/.179) slash line and 50% K% (25% SwStr% versus four-seamers).

Brewers

• Two handedness lineups with Eric Sogard (4 of 4) and Ben Gamel (3 of 4) facing righties and Jedd Gyorko (2 of 2) in against lefties. There is not an obvious sub with lefties.

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I went through the few American League lineups to see if there was a change in a player’s value different from preseason expectations. Here are my thoughts on each team.

Angels

• Albert Pujols has already sat in two of the six games.
• David Fletcher (1.022 OPS) is playing every day and leading off.

Astros

• Kyle Tucker (.188/.235/.313) started three straight games.
• It’s one of the more consistent lineups.

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Read first before freaking out

I started digging into pitch velocities and documented everyone who has changed. Two trends immediately appeared. The overall velocities were down and a few pitchers experienced major drops.

Normally in Spring Training, teams build a pitcher up to their maximum velocity and then start increasing the innings. At this point, all starters should have been ramped up to a full workload with their next start being in the regular season. Many don’t seem ready.

First off, I’m a little suspect of the velocity reading. Back in 2017, MLB installed new pitch-tracking systems and the velocities were high. A new system has been installed (Hawkeye) so something will likely be off. It is the MLB who can’t find a home for a team and decides to expand the playoffs with the season starting … that day. MLB going to MLB.

A second possible cause could the unique ramp up to the 2020 season. Teams have implemented different approaches to keeping their pitchers ready. Some of the velocities are down 5 mph from two separate parks. Maybe the pitchers are still worn down from the long postseason and four-month quarantine. Of the cameras are off. Or both.

Fastball velocities are down for a reason, but the cause(s) remains unknown. Fantasy owners need to remain calm and hopefully, in a few days, the truth will be known.
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I’ve got the draft and auction for two 12-team leagues coming. The Beat Jeff Zimmerman league is this Sunday night at 8 EST and also the mixed LABR auction in Florida. I’ve been grinding down the top-360 players (12 teams x 30 players per team). In these shallower formats, playing time is key for any mid to late-round targets. The following four teams are giving me pause when considering rostering some of their players.

Reds

The Reds have two or three too many players and several players will end up in the 450 to 550 PA range. When healthy, I believe Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Nicholas Castellanos, and Eugenio Suarez are safe. Freddy Galvis should be but his bat is so bad, he could lose playing time to possibly Nick Senzel.

The congestion starts in the outfield. Senzel is going to try to play center with Shogo Akiyama, Phillip Ervin, and Travis Jankowski as backup options. That leaves Akiyama along with Aristedes Aquino and Jesse Winker fighting it out for the right-field job.
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I’ve completed two 15-team, 50-player draft-and-hold leagues and started two more. While I feel I have a decent understanding of the player pool, after pick 500 I’m unfamiliar with many of the players being drafted. This series will rectify that for me and hopefully other owners can find it useful.

To find the names, I just started working my way down the NFBC ADP list until I said “Who?” As I found out diving into the players, I don’t know may of the young prospects. And backup catchers. And middle relievers. Besides the who players

James Karinchak
CLE
P
476 ADP

I missed those five great major league innings at the season’s end. While he’s always been able to strikeout about 1.5 batters per inning, his walk rate hovers around 6.0 BB/9. There is a chance he could close but I think he needs Brad Hand and Nick Wittgren to get hurt and/or suck. And also probably Oliver Perez and Emmanuel Clase. I’m going to pass.

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