Today I am going to look at three 2B who had injury problems in previous seasons and see how they are doing in 2011.
Rickie Weeks – Besides missing just one day last week due to a finger injury, it has been almost 1.5 years since Rickie has missed a day due to an injury. Before 2010, he was a walking injury as seen by this list of time lost from 2006 to 2009:
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Due to an injury to a Phillies’s closer, Ryan Madson will take over the 9th inning duties until further notice. No, really, Ryan Madson is getting opportunities to close games again.
Today, I am going to look at some players that are on the DL and being dropped at a high rate (all numbers are from ESPN).
Angel Pagan (oblique) – 51.0% owned, down 45.5% – Owners are dumping Pagan at a pretty alarming rate. Owners know they aren’t paying for power with him, they are hoping for a player that steals a few bases (4 in 2011) and hits for decent average. The average has been a disaster this year at 0.159, which is being fueled by his 0.164 BABIP. Normally his BABIP is around 0.300, so the batting average should improve substantially. He has been moved around the lineup quite a bit, mainly hitting in the 2nd, 5th or 6th spots. He will have chances to score and drive in a few runs. He is expected to be back from the DL after his 15 days are up on April 30th. He looks to be a perfect player for a team needing SB or AVG help.
Franklin Gutierrez – 22.5% owned – Stomach Virus – Franklin was scratched from a AAA start on Friday for more tests on his stomach. The cause of the ailments has not been found and the effects seem to show up every few days. If/when he returns seems up in the air. The one aspect to remember is that he may get back to the Mariners rather quickly once the cause of the discomfort has been found. I really don’t blame anyone for not picking him up due to the unknown nature of the injury, but once he gets it resolved, I see him getting back to the majors rapidly.
There are a number of prominent fantasy players who are currently injured but are scheduled to come off the disabled list in the next few weeks. Late April could end up feeling like Christmas to some owners. We’re going to take a look at three of those players today.
Cody Ross (calf) – 4.1% owned (ESPN) – Currently, it looks like Ross is not going to be back in the lineup for 2 more weeks. He seems to be recovering fine, but the real story here is who will be the odd man out once he returns to the Giants. Right now Torres (currently with a Achilles’ tendon issue that looks to have him out a week), Huff and Burrell are manning the outfield positions in San Francisco with Belt at first base. One of these 4 players or Ross will have to sit on the bench once he returns.
The Rays may be 0-3 and off to the worst start in franchise history, but the biggest concern in the Tampa Bay area revolves around the health of Evan Longoria.
The All-Star third basemen has been put on the 15 day disabled list and will miss a minimum of three weeks. That loss presents a giant hole to fill for both a Rays lineup that already needed help scoring runs, and fantasy owners who grabbed Longoria in the early rounds of their drafts. The third base position isn’t particularly deep this season, so finding a suitable replacement may prove difficult. Lets take a look at a few possibilities…
Sean Rodriguez and Felipe Lopez
These two will be picking up the playing time in Tampa Bay with Longoria out. Rodriguez is owned in nearly 100 percent of ESPN leagues, so he’s not likely to be found on the waiver wire. However, if you have another player on your team that can handle second base or the outfield – Rodriguez’s two eligible positions – he could fill in nicely at the hot corner. One issue facing Rodriguez is the fact that he doesn’t yet qualify at third base. Give it a week or so and he should pick up the minimum amount of starts to qualify. We know what the 25-year-old brings to the table. He hits left handed pitching exceptionally well, and while he struggles a bit against right handed pitching his outstanding defense should allow him more starts against righties.
When Rodriguez is not in the lineup he’ll be replaced by recently recalled Felipe Lopez. A switch hitter, Lopez has better career numbers against righties, but over the last three seasons has hit .297/.350/.413 against southpaws. He already qualifies at third base, as well as second base and shortstop, and that versatility could prove very valuable over the next few weeks. Lopez had a substandard 2010 season, hitting .233/.311/.345 in 441 PA’s, but proved valuable in 2008 and 2009. Marcel projections a .270/.340/.389 line from Lopez this season, and he’s only owned in o.3% of ESPN leagues at the moment. Keep an eye on when he plays, but you could certainly do a lot worse in the shallow pool of third basemen.
It’s rare to find a starter at a shallow position owned in so few leagues (4.1% ESPN), especially one who enjoyed the half season that Danny Valencia did in 2010. In 322 PA’s the rookie put up an impressive line of .311/.351/.448 and even hit seven home runs. Expecting that same type of production is likely foolish, but Valencia is very capable of putting up an average in the .280-.290 range with ~15 home runs. The fact that he’s available in 96% of leagues is frankly shocking to me. You know how many third basemen hit .300 with 15+ home runs last season? Three. Valencia is capable of that. In fact, picking him up only as a replacement for Longoria may be a waste of his abilities. While he might not crack your starting lineup, he’s a very valuable player to stash away on your bench for the entire season.
Matt Holliday needed an appendectomy on April 1st. Originally it was reported that he was to be out about 4-6 weeks. Since then the time table has been moved up, even to the point that Matt has not even been place on the DL yet. I decided to go back and look historically at players that had their appendix removed, see how long they were off and did their performance change after the operation.
This season I am looking at players that are currently on the DL, but are expected to come off of it soon. I am not going to look at any players owned in over 50% of all leagues, instead I want to focus on players that might be available in most leagues. These players should be picked up soon because they look to be coming off the DL within a month or so.
All owned rates are from ESPN
Domonic Brown (2.7% owned) – Wrist – Dominic’s return to the Phillies looks to be in late April right now. He entered the season with high expectations, but his wrist injury set him back. Of the players I am looking at today, he has the most upside, dominate power source, and the most downside, might not even play in the majors depending on how the other outfielders are doing in Philly. Another concern with me is his wrist injury. He may not have as much power as it usually takes a year to fully heal from a wrist injury.
Casey Blake (1.5% owned) – Ribs/Back – At age 37, he is not going to be a stud on your team. In deep or NL only leagues though, he may be a reasonable option at 3B, especially if you are needing a little power. Also, he may be platooned with another mediocre to below average 3B and used to facilitate better match ups. His exact time table for return is unknown, but he was originally trying to be ready by opening day.
Joel Pineiro (21.3% owned) – Shoulder – Joel is being dumped in many leagues (-15.6%), but looks to only miss a week to start the season. He should be a reliable starter once he is back healthy. The only big knock will be his shoulder. Shoulder problems just seem to keep coming back. Also, it is not generally a good idea to start an injured pitcher the first game back from the DL in case the injury is not healed, instead wait for him to get back into a grove.
Jon Garland (5.5% owned) – Oblique – Jon’s return is a little less for certain, but he is looking to be back in the rotation within the month. He may not put up great stats, but the home games in spacious Dodger’s stadium never hurt.
Most fantasy leagues allow owners a few DL spots and now it is time to begin to use those positions productively. For the past few weeks, several players were known to be injured for 2011 season (ex. Adam Wainwright), but they have not yet been placed on the official DL. In the last few days, teams have begun to officially place players on the DL and the list looks to expand a ton in the next few days as the regular season begins. Now is the time to exploit these extra roster spots. Here are a few suggestions for roster management as the DL list expands.
I will be looking at individual names as the DL expands later in the week.