Archive for Injuries

As much joy as the game of fantasy baseball brings to most of us, it can also bring an enormous amount of frustration and anxiety.  They say you shouldn’t keep that sort of stuff bottled up inside you, unless, of course, you enjoy the taste of bile and all the other stomach acids that a bleeding ulcer provides.  You need to get it out.  But what are you going to do, bitch to your girlfriend?  Try to gain sympathy from your fellow owners?  Doubtful.   Her level of care is reciprocal to your level of interest in her best friend’s latest relationship disaster and deep down, your fellow owners are wishing this kind of stuff on you. Read the rest of this entry »

Jordan Zimmermann, Erik Bedard, and Edinson Volquez are looking to finally get their first chance this year to pitch in the majors. Here is a quick look on the status of each one’s return.

Jordan Zimmermann (1% – all owned percentages are Yahoo values) – Tommy John Surgery – Jordan made his first rehab start this past Saturday for the Potomac Nationals where he threw 25 pitchers over 2 innings. His fast ball was measured in the mid-nineties, which is what he threw before the injury. Right now the Nationals are looking to bring him up late August or early September.

With many teams shutting down their pitchers in that time frame, Jordan looks like a good bet to place in a DL spot, if available, to save for the last month of the season.

Erik Bedard (45%) – Labrum Surgery on Left Shoulder – Erik was supposed to make his first start of the season yesterday versus the Royals. Instead he was scratched for inflammation in his shoulder and is now looking to make his first start after the All-Star break.

Labrum surgeries are really tough to come back from and Erik is already running into problems. It may be worth a chance to see if he can come back, but I wouldn’t want to count on it. If you have room, put him on the bench and see how his first couple starts go before starting him regularly.

Edinson Volquez (21%) – Tommy John Surgery – Edinson looks to return to the Reds sometime after the All-Star break. It looked like he may have been able to join the Reds sooner, but lackluster control in his last outing for AAA Louisville has pushed his time table back. In his 5 rehab starts so far this season, he has a 1.88 ERA , 19 strikeouts and 5 walks in 24 innings.

Edinson should be picked up if available in your league. It is even more important if it is a keeper league. He can be a top flight starter and is definitely worth the chance to see if he returns to his previous form.

That’s the sound of the final nail in the coffin for the Cleveland Indian’s 2010 season. Already 11 games out of first and languishing at .365, the Indians lost star centerfielder Grady Sizemore for the season today. His knee surgery turned into microfracture surgery, and his early prognosis is for a six-to-nine month recovery period. It’s a tough ‘break’ for a franchise that can’t seem to buy good luck these days.

Dark humor aside, microfracture surgeries are no laughing matter. Ask Tracy McGrady and Chris Webber how their recovery went and you’ll get some nervous laughter and an evasive answer. The silver lining in this story is that Sizemore is still young (27) and he doesn’t have to jump thirty inches up and down on those knees on every other play in his sport. In fact, the combination of those two facts allows for at least some optimism in Cleveland. At least the problem was discovered, and sorted to the best of the surgeon’s abilities. Let’s leave it to the doctors report on his recovery.

Hopefully the injury can be blamed for his poor play this year and last, though his declining ISO is somewhat worrisome. Was his knee hurting in 2009? Did he just peak early in 2008? Will he ever regain that 30/30 form? In real baseball, the Indians may take the 2009 vintage and be happy with it. 112 wRC+ center fielders with plus defense don’t grow on trees. And truly, even fantasy owners should be happy if he comes back and plays to 2009’s level, but they won’t pay early-round prices for that production until he proves the power and speed are back. Still, he makes for an intriguing late-round pick in 2011 because of his immense upside, and certainly keeper league owners should not sell low.

So now what? The Indians will slog through the season and see what else the farm system has to offer at the center field position. Trevor Crowe will get continue to get first dibs on the interim position, and before long Micheal Brantley will get the call. In some ways, this may help the organizational health of the Indians by giving two players that have finished their minor league apprenticeships the chance to play every day in the major leagues. Perhaps they prove they can play every day and allow Cleveland to trade them for value elsewhere. Perhaps one of them proves that they can be a valuable fourth outfielder. Either way, they get a shot.

Crowe’s .276/.362/.391 minor league line doesn’t offer a ton of hope for an above-average regular, but his .813 OPS versus lefties could make him a good fourth outfielder or platoon option. His defense in center was around scratch in the minors according to Total Zone, and a scratch-defensive centerfielder that can hit lefties is not dog meat. At the major league level, he just needs to show he can walk like he did in the minors – his 5.5% walk rate to date is not cutting it.

Brantley is playing decently in the minor leagues currently (.306/.386/.373), but, like Crowe, doesn’t have Sizemore’s above-average (or better) power. For his career, he’s played better against righties (.301/.390/.372), so we may have the beginnings of a center field platoon once he’s called up. According to Total Zone, though, his defense has ranged from exceptional at centerfield (+16 in 2009) to abysmal (-21 in 2009). The book is still open on his ability to play the position at all, and it’s important because he doesn’t own any power to speak of.

Fantasy owners are left crying in their adult sodas at their neighborhood establishment. A 30/30 player will not be on the wire at this point, and they may have no solace for teams built on Sizemore’s speedy legs and powerful bat. If they are looking for help from the Cleveland team, Brantley may be the one to pick up, if only because he plays better against right handers and there are more of them.

Here are some estimated return times and some additional information on a subset of players on the DL. At some point in the near future this information will be available for all players at all times here at Fangraphs. For now, I will have to provided the information via articles.

Ted Lilly – Late April
Lance Berkman – Late April return, for now. The knee keeps acting up and with the Astros off to their stellar start, the team will not rush him back
J.C. Romero – Late April – Rehabbing with A team
Brad Lidge – Late April – Rehabbing with A team
Alex Gordon – Late April
Joey Devine – Late April
Coco Crisp – Late April
Aaron Hill – Late April
Daisuke Matsuzaka – Late April – He has said he is ready to pitch
Russell Branyan – Late April – Playing for AA team, but has yet to make back-to-back starts
Joe Blanton – Late April Early May. First rehab start to be on 4/20
Ian Kinsler – Late April/Early May
Freddy Sanchez – Late April/Early May
Cliff Lee – Early May
Jimmy Rollins – Early May
Carlos Beltran – May
Kerry Wood – May
Daniel Murphy – May
J.P. Howell – May
Huston Street – May at the earliest
Chien-Ming Wang – June
Erik Bedard – June at the earliest
Edinson Volquez – June/July return at the earliest
Brandon Webb – Unknown Timetable – May at the absolute earliest
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Unknown
Joe Nathan – Out for season – Hopefully the 8% of teams that still own him in Yahoo are keeper leagues

Note: This is a repost of an article that ran on the 26th. The article got corrupted some how.

Yesterday, I looked at some pitchers that will be for sure be on the DL at the beginning of the season. Now here is a look at some hitters that might also start on the DL. All numbers are from Yahoo leagues.

Note: When filling in players for just a couple of weeks, I look for players that will not hurt my batting average and add a few counting stats in the mean time. If players have similar batting averages, look for one with home run or stolen base potential.

Russell Martin – Right Groin Pull – May look to be back by the start of the season. It looks likes right now that owners should not be worried and should only miss 2 weeks at a maximum. Some possible nice fillers for the week are John Baker (12% owned), A.J Pierzynski (53% owned) and Ramon Hernandez (4% owned).

Alex Gordon – Broken Right Thumb – It was report by the team yesterday that Alex will spend at least 2 weeks on the DL. Alex is only held in 47% of all leagues and looks to be a decent candidate to hide on the DL during until he returns. A decent replacement for Alex will be his replacement Alberto Callaspo (26% owned) and is also qualified at 2B.

Brian Roberts – Herniated Disk in Back – Brian is just beginning to test his back, but there is a good chance he will be on the DL to start the season. The backup choices in Baltimore don’t look great, so head to the waive wire for someone like Felipe Lopez (48% owned), Skip Schumaker (42%), Casey McGhee (32%) and Alberto Callaspo (26%). One other note about Roberts is that when he comes back, he might have lost some speed and may not steal as many bases he did previously.

Russell Branyan – Herniated Disk in Back – I loved Russell as a late round pick, but his back is acting up. There is a chance he will be back in a week or barely play a week all season. If Russell is your #1 first baseman, start looking for another. Some 1B that may be available Paul Konerko (50%), Chirs Davis (48% – I would get him even if you have a 1B, huge upside), Luke Scott (17%) and Connor Jackson (9% – another player with huge upside that should be on a bench). If you picked him up as a bench player, hide him on the DL.

Ian Kinsler – High Right Ankle Sprain – He started hitting off a tee on Monday, but should/could be back by opening day. Look to grab one of the guys mentioned to replace Roberts (Lopez, Schumaker, McGhee or Callaspo). Also, you may look at keeping one of the 2B as Kinsler has spent some time on the DL in each of the past 4 seasons.

This series will look at players that are officially on the disabled list and can be moved to an available DL slot.

Here are the seven people officially on the DL according to Yahoo:

Edinson Volquez – 12% owned – He’s a great candidate to put on the DL, especially in a keeper league. Even if you are not in a deep league, he should be ready by mid-summer and by then you will have a couple of other pitchers ailing.

Jordan Zimmerman – 2% owned – Pick him up. Young. Decent strikeout rate. If in a keeper league, grab him now and let him sit. He may not pitch at all in 2010, but if you have empty DL slots, use one for him.

Scott Richmond – 0% owned – He currently has an unknown timetable for returning. He may only be worth keeping in an AL-only league. Once the season starts, there should be other better candidates for the DL slots, though.

Anthony Reyes – 0% owned – No reason to pick up a 28-year-relief pitcher with a lifetime 5.12 ERA.

Dirk Hayhurst – 0% owned – Dirk should be back in May or June. Don’t let his ERA of 2.78 last year make you think is OK. He had a FIP of 4.55 in those 15 games. Pass.

Eric Hurley – 0% owned – Not sure if you want to waste your time with him. Should be back mid-May.

Well, this is my first post here at FanGraphs. This season, I will be be updating an ongoing injury data set and writing about injuries on the main and fantasy sides of the website. Also, I will write whatever else I have time for that Mr. Hulet and Mr. Cameron will allow. Let me know if there is any injury specific information that you want and I will gladly try to work on it.

One series I plan on running is a look at different injuries types, what the injury entails in simple terms and how it affects a player. So without further ado, here are some pitchers that will be on the DL due to injuries once the season begins:

Ted Lilly – Ted looks to be out until late April after having objects removed from shoulder. You might want to monitor him for a start or two when he come back, but there should be no real worries with him. Looks like a great candidate in deep and NL leagues to stick in your DL slot once he becomes DL eligible.

J.P. Howell – Looks like he is also going to be out until the end of April. Rafael Soriano will get the first crack at the closing job with Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler waiting in the wings.

Brad Lidge – Brad had a rough off-season having surgery on his knees (loose objects) and elbow (loose objects again). He is currently rehabilitating and is aiming for a April 10 return to the roster. Looks like Ryan Madson will get the first shot at the closer role in Philly in Lidge’s absence.

Cliff Lee – Cliff isn’t able to pitch yet and if you planned on him this year, you may need to find a backup for a couple weeks as he gets healthy.

Kerry Wood – At least it’s his back hurt and not his shoulder or elbow so there may be a chance he will come back this season. In his absence, grab Chris Perez. He has the closer role for now and should eventually take it over. After all, it’s not like Kerry isn’t going to go on the DL a couple more times this year.

Erik Bedard – Erik Bedard on the DL? You may be as surprised as I am. Looks like right now he is aiming for a June return. If you have a free DL slot you might want to stick him there (once he become eligible) and wait, but if a little more reliable player needs the slot, drop Bedard, as there is a chance he may never pitch this season.