Let’s get to the injury updates/analysis….

Jung Ho Kang is on the 15-day DL with a left shoulder injury. No official word as to what he hurt, but the way he landed on it gives me some pause. Hopefully it is minor, and he did run off the field afterwards. These impact injuries could be anything in such a complex joint as the shoulder, from a collarbone fracture to a ligament sprain to a labral tear. Yes, non-pitchers can tear their labrum too. Tough timing because he was starting to hit the ball well.

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In last week’s MASH Report, I ran an up-to-date ranking of the of my pitcher injury finding metric, PAIN. The metric is supposed to find pitchers who are displaying traits of possible injuries. Reader, lostatlimbo, wondered:

“I’m also a little disappointed to see no mention of the % of actual injuries from high PAIN scores vs low to validate the data. Plenty of the pitchers with even negative scores have still been injured this season and naturally anything can happen at any time, but is there a significant statistical difference between the upper tiers and lower?“

Besides some initial testing on that season’s pitchers, I haven’t extensively run a recent test on the data. While information has always passed the eye test, it is time to dig a little more.

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A few years back I created a metric to help find pitchers who are showing signs of a possible injury. I named the metric PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex). While I can easily publish the information at all times, I have not been able to dive into the results  as often as I would like. With the new arrangement with BJ Maack and me with the MASH Report, he will be looking at more of the daily and rehab updates and I can then dive into some deeper topics. Today, I will give an update on possible pitcher injuries.

There are just two inputs into the PAIN metric, fastball velocity, and Zone%. I have found drops in both to be indicators of possible pitcher injuries, so I decided to include the pair in the metric. Initially, I had to do a little back fitting to get the system to work. I have made a few minor tweaks over the years, but it has remained relatively constant.

One of the more recent tweaks I have made is to lower the bar for the players at risk. Initially, I made 100 the threshold for risk, but looking back, values of 90 are injured quite often. At some point in the future, I may adjust the formula so 100 is the threshold again.

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Happy Monday to you all!

Before we get to the injury updates, just a quick moment of introduction. I am an AT (athletic trainer — the sports medicine professionals you see tending to injuries at games/practices) and have been doing this in various roles since 1991 (yes, I’m old). Job stints include the St. Louis Cardinals organization, covering high school sports, working in orthopedic physician offices, rehabilitation, speed/strength/performance training, business owner & currently working for a medical device & bracing company.

It’s my intent to offer up not only the latest news about the players, but also to lend my insight & experience to what the injury actually is & what you might expect. To be asked to replace the great work of Jeff Zimmerman is a daunting task, and I wish to offer up appreciation and recognition to him for his work here. Best to you sir in your future endeavors. Now, let’s get to it.

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• Today marks the end of the MASH in its current format.  New writer, B.J. Maack will be taking over all the current injury news. I will not be going away though.

Starting Monday, I will be publishing one in-depth injury article on Thursday on subjects like my PAIN and HURT reports. Also, I will be writing three additional articles for RotoGraphs each week name “Mixing Fantasy and Reality” in which each article will be a short dive into three or four topics like a promoted prospect or a Quick Look at a pitcher. I am not 100% sure what the final format will eventually be, but my goal is to provide in-depth content not available anywhere else. It was not easy taking a step back from the MASH Report, but I am relieved to be moving on to covering a wider range of subjects. I am glad for the nice (kept me going) and harsh (kept me improving) comments over the years. Thanks. -Jeff

• Trevor Story will miss the rest of the regular season with a torn ligament in his thumb.

Story was hoping to be playing now, with his team surging in the National League Wild Card standings, but the injury he suffered Sunday in New York nixed that. Recovery from Thursday’s operation, which will be performed by hand and upper-extremity orthopedic surgeon Dr. Jennifer Kummer, is ex-pected to cost him the rest of the regular season.

But with an eight-week recovery time, Story could return if the Rockies make the playoffs.

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• Wade Davis is back on the DL and this time, it is a strained flexor muscle.

The Royals appeared to receive some good news regarding closer Wade Davis: An MRI perfohttp://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article/192680486/royals-closer-wade-davis-put-on-rmed in Kansas City on Sunday revealed Davis has a low-grade (Grade 1) strain of his right flexor muscle.

“The MRI showed his elbow was clean,” manager Ned Yost said before Sunday’s 5-3 loss to the Rangers in the series finale at Globe Life Park.

While I don’t like to see pitchers get hurt, I do love how this story broke.

This is how you break a story. Good job Casey pic.twitter.com/YPkzZCcH5C

— Jimm (@jimcclintock) July 31, 2016

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• Brett Lawrie has a minor hamstring strain. The White Sox will be playing some interleague games, so to have a bigger bench, he was placed on the DL.

Lawrie hasn’t played since leaving a game on Thursday against the Tigers. Infielder Carlos Sanchez, who was removed from Triple-A Charlotte’s game Tuesday night, was called up to replace Lawrie.

“It just seemed like he was going backwards today,” manager Robin Ventura said of Lawrie on Tuesday. “There’s no way you can go over there [to Wrigley] and play the National League rules with nobody on the bench.”

• Trevor Rosenthal will be out with an inflamed shoulder.

Following an appearance in the Cardinals’ 9-6 loss to the Dodgers on Sunday, Rosenthal asked to have his shoulder looked at, and the right-hander was checked out on Monday.

“It was news to us at the time,” Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said. “We let him get it looked at, and he’s going to continue to get some more tests [done].”

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• I should say I am sorry about no MASH Reports last week, but I am not. I took a much-needed vacation and I am now back to work. The report is quite long today as I had to catch up on all the injury information. It is like three-reports-in-one.

• The Rangers sent both Prince Fielder (herniated neck) and Shin-Soo Choo (inflamed back) to the DL. Fielder is dealing with a similar injury he had two years ago.

The herniation is just above a previous injury that was surgically repaired on May 27, 2014, which forced Fielder to miss the rest of that season. Fielder has been bothered by the problem for some time, but did not report it to the Rangers until Monday.

Fielder had an MRI on Tuesday and was examined on Wednesday in Los Angeles by Dr. Robert Watkins, who recommended surgery. Fielder is going to get a second opinion on Fri-day from Dr. Drew Dossett, who performed the surgery two years ago, before a final course of action is decided.

“The way it has been described to me is that a fused vertebrae puts added stress above and below,” Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. “The initial fusion he had is still intact. The new herniation surfaced above it.

I stayed away from Fielder in 2015 because I was worried about a re-injury. I was a year too early, but I think Fielder owners will from now on need a draft-day backup plan if the draft him.

Choo had been playing through this back injury for a bit and should only need the minimum time until he returns.

Choo has been dealing with inflammation in his lower back for the past couple of weeks. He also had an MRI and examination from Dr. Watkins. Choo received an anti-inflammation injection and is expected to be sidelined 10-14 days.

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Waiver wires – like the southwest being obliterated by consistent triple-digit temperatures – are bone dry at this point. This is why every top-100 prospect who comes up gets obscenely bid up in FAAB proceedings just in case he’s ready to dominate immediately. Perhaps the ripest avenue for talent still left at this point is the disabled list, and specifically, pitchers on the mend. Let’s check in on three Tommy John returners working their way back and see if they can be our second-half saviors, especially as we seem to lose a top arm every day over the last couple of weeks.

Alex Cobb | Tampa Bay Rays

I’m starting with Cobb almost to just get him out of the way. I’ll state out front that I don’t draft TJ returners in their first year back (though I won’t completely ignore them on the wire at this point in the season). Not only are they rarely anywhere near as good as their peak, but even in those instances where they are really good, they frequently run into setbacks which often results in another DL stint (see also: Darvish, Yu this year and Fernandez, Jose last year). Cobb has all that and the fact that the Rays are notoriously deliberate with pitchers working against him.

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• The players going to and from the DL are a little wonky with the All-Star break. It seems some player would have been on it if regular games were going on. Instead, teams are going to wait until Friday to make some moves. Follow the news as much as possible to get an idea if a player is going to play or not once the break is over.

• Craig Kimbrel will be out 3-6 weeks after having surgery on his knee to repair a torn meniscus.

Red Sox All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a left knee medial meniscus tear on Saturday. He is scheduled to undergo surgery on Monday to repair cartilage in his left knee and is expected to be out for three to six weeks.

The time table is fairly realistic with the wide range of possibilities.

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