12/7/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Guest Details: Paul Kastava, Rotographs Contributor (Twitter linked above)

Guest Rundown:

• Key Closers (5:45)
  • Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland
• Key 1B (37:00)
  • Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Mike Napoli, and recently non-tendered Chris Carter
• Key OFs (1:09:20)
  • Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Ian Desmond, Jose Bautista
• Key Cs (1:33:30)
  • Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos, and recently non-tendered Welington Castillo

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Note: I am not covering the possible Davis for Soler trade between the Royals and Cubs because it is still in the possible stage. Once the medicals get cleared up, someone at RotoGraphs will cover it.

Colorado Rockies sign Ian Desmond

This move is a little confusing in a vacuum. The only position Desmond slots in defensively for the Rockies is first base. The problem is that his offense output doesn’t match up with other first basemen (Desmond’s projected wOBA before the move (.312) would put him around 45th overall at first). I don’t think the Rockies are done making moves, though, so I expect Desmond to probably be on the outfield depth chart soon.

No matter his position, Desmond’s value just skyrocketed. With half his games in Colorado, his batting average will jump along with his RBI and Runs chances. It will be interesting to see where he slots into the lineup which could affect his Run-RBI mix.

Owners need to spend a little time making sure they have a good handle on his value. Don’t wing his valuation. Have a decent idea where his value slots in with your league settings. He could get overvalued if his batting average doesn’t soar like people expect, but I think he will likely be undervalued as his power and speed production could make him similar to Charlie Blackmon.

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We are cooking now!! The Winter Meetings often kick the Hot Stove into high gear and even with a light free agent market, we are officially on fire. It became obvious over the summer that the trades were going to drive this market and that’s coming to fruition with heavy rumors that include superstars and then a huge blockbuster today that likely won’t be topped the rest of the way even if some of those other starts move.

Remember, you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter as Jeff Zimmerman and I will keep you up to date on the market.

White Sox trade Chris Sale to Red Sox for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz

The Red Sox scooped an ace lefty for the second straight offseason and this one might be even better – which is saying something because David Price is awesome (yes, even after his wonky debut season in Boston). Sale can succeed anywhere so I’m not sure park factors and stuff like that is going to move the needle much one way or another.

It’s worth noting that his overall home run park factor improves in Fenway, but he might not get full benefit of it because the gains are mostly against lefties, who he already absolutely suffocates. He did allow five homers to lefties this past season, after allowing just three in his career prior to 2016. Bullpen and lineup support improves in Boston, too, and could aid Sale to setting a new career-high in wins (17, twice).

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Note: The great and powerful Paul Sporer will examine the Mark Melancon, Rich Hill, and Steve Pearce moves in the next day or so. I am just catching up on the moves from the weekend.

Yankees signed Matt Holliday

In a vacuum, this signing makes sense for the Yankees and Holliday. The Yankees needed a designated hitter and Holliday needed to transition away from playing the outfield. As the Yankees roster stands at this moment, Tyler Austin and Gregory Bird will be competing for time at first base and the outfield is Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Aaron Judge. All the veterans have a role and everyone should be content.

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The Hot Stove is simmering, but the first indications of a full boil might’ve come today with a huge signing. Of course, there is now a threat of someone turning off the burner altogether if a new collective bargaining agreement isn’t reached by the December 1st deadline.

That said, I’m not terribly worried about a lockout. We discussed it on the latest podcast and just didn’t see the sticking points as lockout-worthy compared to previous years of unrest. Let’s hope today’s major domino is the beginning of a flurry of action leading into the Christmas/New Year holiday when we usually see it quiet down before a final burst in January.

Remember, you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter as Jeff Zimmerman and I will keep you up to date on the market.

Yoenis Cespedes re-signs a 4-year/$110 million dollar deal with the New York Mets

Solid move for both sides here. Obviously, Cespedes cleans up at $27.5 mil per year, but the Mets likely (and rightly) found that more tenable than getting into a five or six year deal for the 31-year old outfielder. We all knew it’d be tough for Cespedes to maintain his insane 57-game pace from 2015 as a Met, but he was still excellent. His .884 OPS was a career-best, though his 134 wRC+ fell a little shy given the boost in offense across the league. He had a 135 in 2015 and 136 back in 2012, his rookie season.

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Mariners trade Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte to the Diamondbacks for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Zac Curtis

Let me start with the two players the Diamondbacks acquired. The move to Arizona is probably a break even move for Walker’s output. Now he is facing the pitcher twice a game instead of the DH, but instead, he has to pitch in his offensive-leaning home park and also travel to Colorado. The bigger question isn’t the small peripheral factors relating to park or league but instead figuring out his true talent level.

Walker is probably considered to be a failed prospect after being in the top-20 of several prospect lists. While he has not lived up the top prospect ranking, he is still a decent fantasy option and could be an even better one if he gets the home runs under control. Just looking at his K%-BB%, he ranks 27th overall the past two seasons (min 300 IP) with the likes of Cole Hamels, Ian Kennedy, Jose Quintana, and John Lackey.

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The Major League Rule 5 draft will be held on December 8. Teams have already made most of their 40-man roster decisions in preparation for draft day, but there’s still time for a few more cuts or trades to open spots. The owners are also threatening to enforce a lockout beginning on December 1 which would probably push back the Rule 5 draft to an undetermined time.

If you’re not familiar with the Rule 5 draft, it’s an opportunity for teams to steal players from other clubs. Said players must not be on a 40-man roster now and must remain on the active roster of their new club for a full service year. There’s more to it than that, but it’s unimportant to us as fantasy players. All we need to know is that some relatively untouted prospects are going to be jammed onto major league rosters for an entire year.

In 2015, the big names (from a fantasy perspective) were Joey Rickard and Tyler Goeddel. Not a big deal, eh? Rickard was useful very early in the season while Goeddel was a star in May and otherwise awful. The 2014 draft included Odubel Herrera, Delino DeShields, and Mark Canha. They contributed to some fantasy titles.

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The Texas Rangers signed Andrew Cashner to a one-year deal for $10 million dollars on Friday. It’s tough for a one-year deal to be really bad, almost regardless of the cost because the commitment is so short, but I’m not seeing too much upside here for Cashner or the Rangers. The 30-year old righty showed promise after being installed into the Padres rotation full-time back in 2013, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 298.3 innings (45 starts) over two seasons. But it all started to come unglued in 2015.

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The Astros have so far been the major mover this offseason. After signing Charlie Morton earlier this week, they picked up Brian McCann and Josh Reddick yesterday. The team has already remade themselves and the offseason has just started.

With the offseason just getting started, it is tough to get a good feeling on what the Astros will end up looking like going into spring training. When the offseason is nearly over, fantasy owners will need to sit down and figure how the playing time will get divided up among the players in Houston to help determine final values.

Astros sign Josh Reddick

Josh Reddick is one of those players in I hate drafting. If Reddick is an option on my draft sheet, I usually go another direction as Reddick offers little to no upside and downside. He is the safe play and for some people, the right move for them. The 30-year-old has had some up-and-down performances like the 32 home runs in 2012 or the single stolen base in 2014 but otherwise he is good for a dozen home runs and 10 steals with a .270 AVG.

Over the past four seasons, Reddick has traded off some power for a better contact rate. His strikeouts are down (20% to 13%) with his batting average being up (.226 to .281). While he has changed some, it is not enough to move his fantasy value.

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The Hot Stove is underway and we’ve got you covered when moves happen. You will see Jeff Zimmerman and me alternating on the coverage of moves. His first piece on the Braves moves, Howie Kendrick, and Kendrys Morales can be found here and you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter.

Athletics trade Danny Valencia to Mariners for Paul Blackburn

Valencia is out here collecting teams like they’re Pokémon. The Mariners will be his seventh team since reaching the majors in 2010. He might finally get his first full season of work since 2011, too. Valencia has always raked lefties with a career .873 OPS and only once has he been below .822 (and he had just 56 PA that season).

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