The Hot Stove is simmering, but the first indications of a full boil might’ve come today with a huge signing. Of course, there is now a threat of someone turning off the burner altogether if a new collective bargaining agreement isn’t reached by the December 1st deadline.

That said, I’m not terribly worried about a lockout. We discussed it on the latest podcast and just didn’t see the sticking points as lockout-worthy compared to previous years of unrest. Let’s hope today’s major domino is the beginning of a flurry of action leading into the Christmas/New Year holiday when we usually see it quiet down before a final burst in January.

Remember, you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter as Jeff Zimmerman and I will keep you up to date on the market.

Yoenis Cespedes re-signs a 4-year/$110 million dollar deal with the New York Mets

Solid move for both sides here. Obviously, Cespedes cleans up at $27.5 mil per year, but the Mets likely (and rightly) found that more tenable than getting into a five or six year deal for the 31-year old outfielder. We all knew it’d be tough for Cespedes to maintain his insane 57-game pace from 2015 as a Met, but he was still excellent. His .884 OPS was a career-best, though his 134 wRC+ fell a little shy given the boost in offense across the league. He had a 135 in 2015 and 136 back in 2012, his rookie season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Mariners trade Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte to the Diamondbacks for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Zac Curtis

Let me start with the two players the Diamondbacks acquired. The move to Arizona is probably a break even move for Walker’s output. Now he is facing the pitcher twice a game instead of the DH, but instead, he has to pitch in his offensive-leaning home park and also travel to Colorado. The bigger question isn’t the small peripheral factors relating to park or league but instead figuring out his true talent level.

Walker is probably considered to be a failed prospect after being in the top-20 of several prospect lists. While he has not lived up the top prospect ranking, he is still a decent fantasy option and could be an even better one if he gets the home runs under control. Just looking at his K%-BB%, he ranks 27th overall the past two seasons (min 300 IP) with the likes of Cole Hamels, Ian Kennedy, Jose Quintana, and John Lackey.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Major League Rule 5 draft will be held on December 8. Teams have already made most of their 40-man roster decisions in preparation for draft day, but there’s still time for a few more cuts or trades to open spots. The owners are also threatening to enforce a lockout beginning on December 1 which would probably push back the Rule 5 draft to an undetermined time.

If you’re not familiar with the Rule 5 draft, it’s an opportunity for teams to steal players from other clubs. Said players must not be on a 40-man roster now and must remain on the active roster of their new club for a full service year. There’s more to it than that, but it’s unimportant to us as fantasy players. All we need to know is that some relatively untouted prospects are going to be jammed onto major league rosters for an entire year.

In 2015, the big names (from a fantasy perspective) were Joey Rickard and Tyler Goeddel. Not a big deal, eh? Rickard was useful very early in the season while Goeddel was a star in May and otherwise awful. The 2014 draft included Odubel Herrera, Delino DeShields, and Mark Canha. They contributed to some fantasy titles.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Texas Rangers signed Andrew Cashner to a one-year deal for $10 million dollars on Friday. It’s tough for a one-year deal to be really bad, almost regardless of the cost because the commitment is so short, but I’m not seeing too much upside here for Cashner or the Rangers. The 30-year old righty showed promise after being installed into the Padres rotation full-time back in 2013, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 298.3 innings (45 starts) over two seasons. But it all started to come unglued in 2015.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Astros have so far been the major mover this offseason. After signing Charlie Morton earlier this week, they picked up Brian McCann and Josh Reddick yesterday. The team has already remade themselves and the offseason has just started.

With the offseason just getting started, it is tough to get a good feeling on what the Astros will end up looking like going into spring training. When the offseason is nearly over, fantasy owners will need to sit down and figure how the playing time will get divided up among the players in Houston to help determine final values.

Astros sign Josh Reddick

Josh Reddick is one of those players in I hate drafting. If Reddick is an option on my draft sheet, I usually go another direction as Reddick offers little to no upside and downside. He is the safe play and for some people, the right move for them. The 30-year-old has had some up-and-down performances like the 32 home runs in 2012 or the single stolen base in 2014 but otherwise he is good for a dozen home runs and 10 steals with a .270 AVG.

Over the past four seasons, Reddick has traded off some power for a better contact rate. His strikeouts are down (20% to 13%) with his batting average being up (.226 to .281). While he has changed some, it is not enough to move his fantasy value.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Hot Stove is underway and we’ve got you covered when moves happen. You will see Jeff Zimmerman and me alternating on the coverage of moves. His first piece on the Braves moves, Howie Kendrick, and Kendrys Morales can be found here and you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter.

Athletics trade Danny Valencia to Mariners for Paul Blackburn

Valencia is out here collecting teams like they’re Pokémon. The Mariners will be his seventh team since reaching the majors in 2010. He might finally get his first full season of work since 2011, too. Valencia has always raked lefties with a career .873 OPS and only once has he been below .822 (and he had just 56 PA that season).

Read the rest of this entry »

Braves sign R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon

Well, the Braves used to be a young, rebuilding team. Now they are a slightly older rebuilding team. Signing the pair helps solidify the Braves rotation and suck up a ton of innings.

As for the changes in fantasy implications, I see none for Bartolo Colon. He is staying in the same division and still on a decent offense to get Wins. As long as he continues to command his 88 mph fastball, he will be playable in deep leagues and as a spot starter. I am pretty sure people know what they are getting from him at this point in his career.

The R.A. Dickey signing is a little more interesting. Dickey has been pretty much irrelevant in the past couple of seasons except for generating a ton of subpar rate stats for the teams brave or desperate enough to roster him.

Read the rest of this entry »

Playing a little catch-up from the holidays, here are the fantasy implications from the latest impact moves and they aren’t all former Cincinnati Reds:

(Remember, you can follow all the move analysis here)

Johnny Cueto signs with SF

If a pitcher who struggled mightily like Jeff Samardzija gets a major boost by joining the Giants, then you can only imagine what it could do for Cueto. Overall, he had a fantastic season and has been  one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last five seasons. He sputtered some with KC, allowing a ton more hits while striking out two fewer batters per nine innings. He closed strong with a World Series complete game, but he’s likely thrilled to return to the Senior Circuit.

Homers usually get Cueto when he’s off. He had a 1.1 HR/9 with KC including outings of 4 and 3 HR. AT&T Park is the spot to stifle homers. That’s something Fangraphs, Statcorner, and ESPN can all agree upon when it comes to measuring park factors. This is a great move for the Giants to solidify their rotation with a big three in Madison Bumgarner, Cueto, and then Samardzija. All of a sudden, the burden on Jake Peavy and Matt Cain is much lower and Chris Heston is now the fill-in if one of them fails.

Impact: ++ for Cueto, – for Heston

Read the rest of this entry »

My headline would’ve been way better if Todd Frazier was traded somewhere south of Cincinnati. It’s pretty dope, though, right? RIGHT? He was the centerpiece to a three-team trade with the Dodgers, White Sox, and of course the Reds. The Dodgers and Reds each got a three-pack of prospects which we’ll get to shortly, but first let’s focus on Frazier with the White Sox.

Third base has long been an issue for the White Sox. In fact, when they first hired Robin Ventura it was to be the third baseman again, but after informed them that he was 44 years old and wouldn’t be any better than the dregs they were running out there already, he shifted into the manager’s role and they went with Orlando Hudson (50 wRC+ in 51 games) and Brent Morel (11 in 35) before getting the last bit of juice out of Kevin Youkilis for the second half of the season (110 in 80 and then he was done after just 28 games with NYY the following season).

Read the rest of this entry »

Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist signed with the Cubs

The signing of both players by the Cubs points to two major impacts, a good Cubs offense and Javier Baez doesn’t have a full-time job. Starting with the offense, the Cubs don’t really have any holes except at catcher and there are worse catchers than Miguel Montero. If last year’s rookies (Russell, Bryant, Schwaber, and Soler) continue to grow and don’t regress too much, the Cubs could put up a ton of runs. This means plenty of Runs and RBI for every Cub. They will also get more at-bats since fewer outs are being made so more offense. It tough to put an exact number on the run increase, but I would not be surprised to see them challenge the Rockies for the most runs scored next season.

I just don’t see how Javier Baez is going to get regular playing time with Zobrist at second base and Russell at short. Zobrist gives the Cubs some flexibility to give some others a day off and Baez could fill in. Baez may only be looking at 200 plate appearances unless another starter has a major injury or a second-year player has a huge slump. I could see the Cubs move Baez in a trade.

Not much else really changed. The Cubs pitchers may see a small increase in value with Heyward in the outfield. Over the course of a season, Wrigley Field plays pitcher-friendly in the cold spring and then heats up in the mid-summer, so the pair’s offense will stay the same. Heyward and Zobrist are pretty much done stealing bases, so I don’t any movement in that category.

Read the rest of this entry »