Fantasy Implications: Cespedes, Volquez, Thames, and Jackson

The Hot Stove is simmering, but the first indications of a full boil might’ve come today with a huge signing. Of course, there is now a threat of someone turning off the burner altogether if a new collective bargaining agreement isn’t reached by the December 1st deadline.

That said, I’m not terribly worried about a lockout. We discussed it on the latest podcast and just didn’t see the sticking points as lockout-worthy compared to previous years of unrest. Let’s hope today’s major domino is the beginning of a flurry of action leading into the Christmas/New Year holiday when we usually see it quiet down before a final burst in January.

Remember, you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter as Jeff Zimmerman and I will keep you up to date on the market.

Yoenis Cespedes re-signs a 4-year/$110 million dollar deal with the New York Mets

Solid move for both sides here. Obviously, Cespedes cleans up at $27.5 mil per year, but the Mets likely (and rightly) found that more tenable than getting into a five or six year deal for the 31-year old outfielder. We all knew it’d be tough for Cespedes to maintain his insane 57-game pace from 2015 as a Met, but he was still excellent. His .884 OPS was a career-best, though his 134 wRC+ fell a little shy given the boost in offense across the league. He had a 135 in 2015 and 136 back in 2012, his rookie season.

There isn’t a ton of analysis on a re-signing outside of the fact that he’s a year older. Only a strained quad could slow Yo last season and likely robbed him of a third straight 100-RBI season, but he still popped 31 homers. He might’ve chased down a 40/100 season with a full complement of games or at least the 156 he has averaged over the last two seasons. The quad was his first DL stint since 2013 and he’s logged at least 540 PA in each of his five MLB seasons so there’s a high floor here, even at 31. He’ll be drafted as a top-15 OF and remains a strong bet to yield top-30 numbers.

Edinson Volquez signs a 2-year/$22 million dollar deal with the Miami Marlins

What a time to be alive! Volquez allowed the most earned runs in the AL this past season (113) and still finds himself making $11 mil per over the next two seasons. He’s actually “led” his league in earned runs allowed in two of the last four seasons, but he has 393 innings of 3.30 ERA in between those seasons so you can understand why the Marlins would take this relatively low-risk gamble on the 33-year old righty. The simple fact is that eating innings has value (he’s averaged 187 IP the last five years) and so even the bad Volquez can reasonably be “worth” the money the Marlins will pay him.

His success is often directly tied to his LOB rate. Yes, most pitchers will struggle if they can’t strand runners, but Volquez suffers more than most because he allows so many baserunners. He has a career 1.45 WHIP and his 1.42 mark the last five years is second-highest among qualified starters (Ubaldo Jimenez 1.47).

Volquez’s Full Seasons (min. 162 IP)
IP ERA WHIP LOB%
2008 3.21 1.33 76%
2012 4.14 1.45 73%
2013 5.71 1.59 65%
2014 3.04 1.23 78%
2015 3.55 1.31 73%
2016 5.37 1.55 66%

On the positive side, he does move back to the NL where he has been better over his career. He has a 4.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 20% K rate (8.2 K/9) in the Senior Circuit over 962.7 IP compared to a 4.91 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 17% K rate (6.7 K/9) in 469.7 IP with American League clubs. Marlins Stadium could be a boon for him, too. Kauffman Stadium is bit a better for home runs, but Marlins Stadium allows fewer hits and runs on average. At most, he’s a dollar end-gamer in deep leagues, but I’d probably gamble elsewhere.

Eric Thames signs a 3-year, $16 million dollar deal with the Milwaukee Brewers

You may remember Thames from a solid 2011 debut (107 wRC+) in 394 PA followed by something of a sophomore slump (82 wRC+), albeit in a disjointed 290 PA sample between two teams (160 in Apr-May w/TOR, 130 Aug-Oct w/SEA). He spent 2013 in the minors before jumping over the Korea and devastating the league for three seasons:

Thames’ KBO Record
Year PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
2014 514 95 37 121 11 0.343 0.422 0.688
2015 595 130 47 140 40 0.381 0.497 0.790
2016 525 117 40 118 13 0.317 0.425 0.676

The translations for the those numbers are quite good:

We know that the KBO is easier than MLB, but it’s not like he was consistently putting up these numbers in the minors so we’d be foolish to completely ignore his surge. Even if he comes back over and “only” posts an .850ish OPS, that could easily yield a 30-homer season. Look at the players who posted full seasons in that range (which I’d say is .825-.875).

He also returns to the one of the best home run parks for lefties in the league. Miller Park has a 136 HR park factor for lefties the last three years according to StatCorner (ours aren’t updated with 2016 numbers yet). Jason Collette brought him up on a recent podcast if you want to hear more and Nick Stellini wrote about him today.  I think the hype will increase over the winter and make him a popular sleeper, but even an inflated price is probably only $3-5 unless he just explodes in Spring Training.

Braves acquire Alex Jackson; Mariners acquire Rob Whalen and Max Povse

Jackson was the 6th overall pick in 2014, but he has stalled out a bit in A-ball after a solid start to his pro career. He posted an .820 OPS in 94 PA after the draft, earning a top-30 prospect rating here (as well as both BA and MLB) as an advanced bat was expected to carry him quickly through the minors. An 11% walk rate and .227 ISO helped him overcome a 31% strikeout rate in Low-A at the start of 2015 and earned him a promotion to A-ball where he has languished since.

He was brutal in 121 PA after the promotion (37 wRC+) and while he was markedly better this year (120) in 381 PA, he’s still striking out too much and simply not showing the advanced bat that was expected out of high school. Despite the struggles, this isn’t a bad gamble for the Braves. We are still talking about a 21-year old with just over a full season of plate appearances under his belt (793) as a pro. No one would be all that surprised if he addressed the holes in his swing and turned the raw power into more consistent game power.

The Mariners get a pair of decent arms for a guy they’ve clearly decided isn’t going to meet the expectations of a #6 pick. GM Jerry DiPoto wasn’t around when Jackson was drafted and thus it’s much easier for him to cut ties and instead hope to click on at least one of the two arms. Whalen made his MLB debut this year, flashing some solid secondary stuff, but struggled to consistently command his 89-90 MPH fastball.

Povse is a tall, lanky righty (6’8, 185) drafted in the third rounder of the 2014 draft. He has a solid fastball that sits 91-93, but can flash mid-90s. He backs it up with a decent changeup and passable curveball. Limiting walks and homers has driven his success in the minors, but he might not be a starter in the long-term. As a reliever, he might have the mid-90s heater more consistently and then he’d only need the changeup or curveball, instead of both. Neither Whalen nor Povse is fantasy relevant at this time, and I’d be surprised if either became such in the future.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Jimmember
7 years ago

The Braves are probably going to return Jackson to his original position of catcher. Atlanta really needs help there. Jeff Datz, a former major league catcher hired in October as the Braves’ new roving catching instructor, was a scout in the Mariners organization when they selected Jackson with the sixth pick of the 2014 draft and signed him out of a San Diego high school for $4.2 million.