Seemingly every season, a hitter comes out of nowhere to enjoy an insane couple of month stretch. In 2015, it was Franklin Gutierrez, of all hitters. In 2016, it was Gary Sanchez introducing himself as the next top catcher. In 2017, it was Matt Olson and Rhys Hoskins as the newest pure power hitters. And last year of course, it was Luke Voit and Ryan O’Hearn (and one might be inclined to include Max Muncy who did it over a larger sample size). This year with power settling in at record levels, we have several candidates. The best of these candidates is the guy easily leading all batters with at least 120 plate appearances in ISO (.422) and slightly leading in wOBA (.441). His name is Aristides Aquino and unless you’re a fantasy player or Reds fan, you probably never heard of him.

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9/4/19

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• @sporer – Host

2019 FALLOFFS

• Mookie Betts (2:45)
• Khris Davis (9:45)
• Matt Carpenter (17:40)
• Lorenzo Cain (30:45)
• Paul Goldschmidt (41:26)
• Victor Robles (48:35)
• Manny Machado (50:31)

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We’ve spent a lot of virtual column inches, podcast minutes, and tweets discussing the new reality of offense in baseball. Call it the rabbit ball, super happy fun ball, or bouncy ball, whatever you want, but we know that the current structure of the league’s baseballs has fueled an explosion. It’s not the ball alone, players are more in tune with their swings and more of them are understanding the importance of putting the ball in the air to maximize power output.

A quick scan of your own team likely gives you an idea of how different this environment is as many player lines look complete already and we still have a month left. But where exactly are we in relation to previous seasons? Let’s take a look:

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Not so long ago, when it came to pull-heavy power hitters, there was no equal to Brian Dozier. Based on developments currently unfolding this season, the genre could explode in 2020.

Back in 2016, Dozier was unique among major league hitters in his ability to pull flyballs at an extremely high rate consistently. Among hitters who launched at least 100 flies in both 2015 and 2016, Dozier was the only batter to exceed a 35 percent pull rate on flyballs in both seasons. He essentially lapped the field, surpassing a 40 percent rate in both campaigns. Then Dozier was the only hitter to pull off the feat in both 2016 and 2017.
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Introduction

On the latest episode of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Podcast, I posed the following question:

In 2020 fantasy baseball drafts for roto leagues, which will you do early on?

A) Draft Speed Early
B) Pound the Power

Simultaneously, I posed the identical question on Twitter, yielding the following results:

The Twitter responses, as well as the members of the TGFBI Beat the Shift Podcast panel were pretty evenly split on what was more important to focus on. Obviously, fantasy owners need to focus on both; players who can amass a broad base of stats are ideal. But the question is still a valid one – in a vacuum, all things being equal, which player type should you favor in a draft?

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INSANE…ly good, that is. That’s the only way you can describe the performance of baseball’s newest offensive sensation, Yordan Alvarez. You might not realize how good he actually has been. If I filter our leaderboard for all rookie seasons since 2000 with at least 220 plate appearances, Alvarez sits atop the list after sorting by wOBA. Of course, it’s easier to do that over 228 plate appearances than the 678 that Aaron Judge did it over two seasons ago when he posted a .430 wOBA. But still, while you can kinda fake an inflated BABIP (Alvarez has a .376 mark), it’s far more difficult to fake a .365 ISO. But how real has his performance been so far?

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With a month and a half left in the season, you must keep focus on your placement in the various categories. Forget about overall fantasy value and worry about how each player on your roster will help you gain (or prevent you from losing) points in each category. If you find yourself in need of speed, here are six names that are likely available in many leagues that have been running over the past month.

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Yesterday, I identified and discussed the hitters who have seen their fly ball rates surge most over the last 30 days. Fly ball rate spikes are great news for power hitters who post above league average HR/FB rates, though it won’t necessarily result in better overall performance by wOBA, as it will likely hamper BABIP. Today, let’s look at hitters on the opposite end of the spectrum, those whose FB% marks have declined most. For speedy, non-power threats, a decline is probably a good thing, but for a hitter who relies on his power, not so much.

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I often talk about a hitter’s batted ball type distribution, which simply refers to his rates of grounders, fly balls, line drives, and pop-ups. While these rates do fluctuate like any other metric, they generally remain stable and don’t vary significantly from year to year. A fly ball hitter is typically always one, as is a ground ball hitter. So when we do observe dramatic swings in batted ball type rates, we should take notice, as it’s more likely a conscious change in approach then randomness, assuming the sample size is reasonable. So let’s take a look at the hitters whose fly ball rates have spiked most over the last 30 days compared to the rest of the season. An increased fly ball rate will result in more homers, assuming all else remains equal.

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Pardon the brief intro, but I’m coming to you live from Disney World! I wanted to give you a few guys to look for on your waiver wires this weekend!

Mike Tauchman OF – NYY | 141 wRC+

With the absurd number of injuries that have struck the Yankees, it’s kind of surprising that Tauchman is just now breaking through. He got some playing time in April, but couldn’t make it happen, posting just a .177/.282/.387 line as a .211 BABIP held him back. He has become a lineup staple since the All-Star break and he’s absolutely raking. He has a .413/.471/.825 line with 6 HR and 4 SB in 70 PA and I’m sure Alex Chamberlain’s wife is tired of hearing about his crush’s numbers every night! With Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks on the IL, Tauchman’s playing time should be solidified for the foreseeable future. Buy!

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