One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

• Vol. 1

Here are the picks for volume 2:

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

• C Max Stassi – 23% | Will Smith – 78% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

Stassi is looking like this year’s iteration of Christian Vázquez or Robert Pérez with 4 HR in 25 PA already. There was some prospect heat on Stassi many moons ago for the 29-year old. He’s now in a platoon with Jason Castro, though it’s starting to shape up as a 50/50 as opposed to being pitcher hand-based. This rate of power will obviously slow down, but it’s earning him some extra playing time and makes him worth a look if you need a catcher. Also consider Austin Nola (5%) as he’s now catcher-eligible and the starter in Seattle with Tom Murphy nursing a foot injury.

Smith had an excellent start to his MLB career last year with a 1.072 OPS through 37 games with 13 HR in 129 PA. He closed on a down note with a .582 OPS in September and those struggles have joined him in 2020 thus far with a .182/.345/.364 line and 1 HR in 29 PA this year. This was originally slated to be more of a 70/30 split, but it’s trending at a 55/45 right now with Austin Barnes starting six games to Smith’s seven.

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Yesterday, I discussed a whole bunch of hitting metrics and who currently leads and lags the league. Things be crazy this early in a season. I didn’t quite finish diving into all the metrics I wanted to, so today I’ll check in on the batted ball type related metrics. Let’s see who is part of the weird and wonderful today.

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What I love about the first couple of weeks in the baseball season is all the crazy rates players are posting. In small samples, the variance in all metrics is much wider than in a larger sample. Obviously, the larger the sample, the more a player’s performance will revert toward his true talent level. In only around 10 games, anything goes! So for fun, let’s take a gander at some of the weird and wonderful rates that have been posted by hitters so far.

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed a selection of hitters who have gained the most flyball/line drive exit velocity this year versus last. Today, I’ll list and discuss the hitters on the flip side — those that have lost the most EV. What follows is a list of hitters who have lost at least six miles per hour of FB/LD EV. Small sample caveats apply.

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It’s still super early, with only some teams playing as many as 10 games. And yet, those 10 games already represent 16.7% of the season! CRAZY. So yes, it’s still super early to evaluate most performances, but by the time we have enough of a sample to make better judgments, the season will have ended. So like I discussed last week with pitcher fastball velocity, let’s look at another underlying skill metric that stabilizes more quickly than a results-based metric — exit velocity. I like barrels more, but with the tiny samples so far, one more or less barrel will make a significant difference in barrel rate, so it’s simply too soon. So we’ll stick with average fly ball/line drive exit velocity, as it’s pretty straightforward — all else being equal, the faster the bat meets the ball, the further the ball will travel.

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I went through the few National League lineups to see if there was a change in a player’s value different from preseason expectations. Here are my thoughts on each team.

Braves

• They are using separate lineups against different handed pitchers. Matt Adams and Ender Inciarte are facing the righties and Adam Duvall and Johan Camargo are facing the lefties.
• Ronald Acuña Jr. has not got going yet with a (.143/.250/.179) slash line and 50% K% (25% SwStr% versus four-seamers).

Brewers

• Two handedness lineups with Eric Sogard (4 of 4) and Ben Gamel (3 of 4) facing righties and Jedd Gyorko (2 of 2) in against lefties. There is not an obvious sub with lefties.

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One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well. Some of these are difficult cuts, but consider that we’re the equivalent of about 3 weeks in at this point so I think your bar for cutting someone needs to be lower than past seasons.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

• C Danny Jansen – 15% | Yadier Molina – 68%

Pickings are a little slim behind the dish, but Jansen is off to a decent start after being highly touted in 2019 and failing to deliver on the hype. He’s hitting .235/.381/.412 with 1 HR and matching strikeout and walk rates at 19%.

Meanwhile, Molina has sputtered out of the gate at .222/.222/.222 in 18 PA. It’s obviously super early and veteran catcher will likely find his level, but he’s not so good that you must hang onto him in a 1-catcher league.

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Read first before freaking out

I started digging into pitch velocities and documented everyone who has changed. Two trends immediately appeared. The overall velocities were down and a few pitchers experienced major drops.

Normally in Spring Training, teams build a pitcher up to their maximum velocity and then start increasing the innings. At this point, all starters should have been ramped up to a full workload with their next start being in the regular season. Many don’t seem ready.

First off, I’m a little suspect of the velocity reading. Back in 2017, MLB installed new pitch-tracking systems and the velocities were high. A new system has been installed (Hawkeye) so something will likely be off. It is the MLB who can’t find a home for a team and decides to expand the playoffs with the season starting … that day. MLB going to MLB.

A second possible cause could the unique ramp up to the 2020 season. Teams have implemented different approaches to keeping their pitchers ready. Some of the velocities are down 5 mph from two separate parks. Maybe the pitchers are still worn down from the long postseason and four-month quarantine. Of the cameras are off. Or both.

Fastball velocities are down for a reason, but the cause(s) remains unknown. Fantasy owners need to remain calm and hopefully, in a few days, the truth will be known.
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Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions (which I’ll publish on Thursday), I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders are even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe would be considered bold or is already projected to finish top five in the category. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000. This is more for fun and dreaming of what could be than any serious attempt at being right. That said, if there’s any season to get a bold league leader choice correct, this is it. We might see some very surprising names atop the categorical leaderboards.

We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.

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Note: If you read this on Saturday evening, I’m likely to add a few names as I do some more research and more news rolls in.

Projecting this season’s FAAB is going to be a nightmare. In past seasons, the process seemed fruitless at times but it’s going to be even more of a mess this season. Most leagues are giving teams the same amount of FAAB to cover a third of the season that will lead to some high dollar desperate bidding. Additionally, when a league was drafted matters. For instance, I have two leagues running FAAB tomorrow. The one from early March I need to clean up (e.g. one had Trey Mancini) and the other I drafted last so I may gamble on some different bullpen arms.

In this article, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS used a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed.

Additionally, I’m going to add anyone else I fill is appropriate.

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