The Weird and the Wonderful – 8/5/20

What I love about the first couple of weeks in the baseball season is all the crazy rates players are posting. In small samples, the variance in all metrics is much wider than in a larger sample. Obviously, the larger the sample, the more a player’s performance will revert toward his true talent level. In only around 10 games, anything goes! So for fun, let’s take a gander at some of the weird and wonderful rates that have been posted by hitters so far.

So there’s at least some care given to sample size, I limited my dive to hitters who have recorded at least 30 plate appearances.

• These hitters have been super patient, all walking at least 20% of the time:

  Andrew Benintendi
  Mike Yastrzemski
  Matt Olson
  Yandy Diaz
  Carlos Santana

  This is a fun group of hitters. I was bullish on Yastrzemski following up on last season’s partial season breakout and he’s looking good so far.

• These hitters have yet to take a base on balls this season:

  Jonathan Schoop
  Enrique Hernandez
  Maikel Franco
  Jose Peraza
  Amed Rosario
  Whit Merrifield

• Joey Votto leads baseball (among 30+ PA hitters) with the lowest strikeout rate at just 2.8%. That’s one strikeout. While he didn’t quite make it among the walk rate leaders, he continues to do his thing, walking 16.7% of the time.
• Meanwhile, these hitters have all struck out at least 40% of the time:

  Niko Goodrum
  Ryan McMahon
  Dansby Swanson
  Evan White
  Willson Contreras

  Welp, this isn’t the group of hitters you expected to be at the top. What on Earth is Goodrum doing?! I couldn’t understand why White was handed the Mariners first base job with just 18 career plate appearances above Double-A, and so far, he hasn’t done anything to make one think he’s ready to succeed at the MLB level.

• Speaking of Dansby Swanson, he’s the proud owner of the worst BB%-K% at -38.6%. That’s right, to go along with his sky high 40.9% strikeout rate, he has walked just 2.8% of the time. Yup, that’s a 1/18 BB/K ratio from the guy who has been pretty consistent with his walk and strikeout rates throughout his career.
• These hitters lead baseball in BB%-K% as the only three members of the over 10% club:

  Joey Votto
  Tommy La Stella
  Yandy Diaz

  There’s Votto again and Yandy, who we saw in the high walk rate club.

• These hitters have struggled — majorly — to make contact, as the four members of the over 20% SwStk% club:

  Luis Robert
  Keston Hiura
  Josh Bell
  Franmil Reyes

  Robert?! I’M SHOCKED! You likely forgot by now that in early March, I published a diatribe on why he was ridiculously overvalued in drafts. He’s managed to make me look silly so far with two homers, three steals, and a .350 average, but it all seems to be built on a house of cards. His BABIP is an insane .462, while that SwStk% suggests high risk his strikeout rate jumps higher. Right now, he’s swinging at everything, which is the only reason his strikeout rate remains sub-30%.

• Who has the power (Besides He-Man, of course)? These guys are in the rarified .500+ ISO club:

  Aaron Judge
  Nicholas Castellanos
  Teoscar Hernandez

  After Judge’s home run streak, it’s no surprise to see him here. Ya think Castellanos’ Detroit ballpark was holding back his home run power output? Umm yes, yes I do.

• However, this list of the next guys down in the ISO rankings is far more interesting:

  Colin Moran
  Christian Vazquez
  Joey Gallo
  JaCoby Jones

  Years ago, we (or maybe it was just me?) heard that Moran had changed his swing and joined the fly ball revolution. This happened in the minors and his surging FB% confirmed the change. But the change failed to carry over to the Majors and he hasn’t shown any power as a result. Perhaps something finally clicked, because now his FB% has spiked and he has combined that with an absurd 55.6% HR/FB rate. An early indication of a true breakout? Maaaaaaybe. It’s still hard for me to believe that the former strong defensively, but can’t hit, Vazquez is suddenly a power hitter.

• These hitters’ balls in play are finding every single hole as members of the .500+ BABIP club:

  Kyle Lewis
  Dansby Swanson
  Donovan Solano
  Michael Brantley
  Willson Contreras
  Willy Adames

  Lewis has been one of the talks in the early going, but c’mon now! He homered in his first two games to get everyone hyped, but he has homered just once since and his ridiculous BABIP is what is propping up his performance now. He’s either the next Joey Gallo or is going to fall hard. I find it hilarious when guys like Donovan Solano get added in leagues, solely as a result of his inflated BABIP. The guy has no power or speed and plays on a weak Giants offense. Do fantasy owners really think the hits will just keep on falling?
• These hitters just can’t get their batted balls to fall in for hits. I present to you the sub-.100 BABIP club:

  Jurickson Profar
  Nick Ahmed
  Miguel Cabrera
  Justin Upton
  Albert Pujols

  It’s no surprise that two of the league’s slowest hitters (Cabrera and Pujols) appear here, but obviously no MLB hitter is so slow that a sub-.100 BABIP is justified. Man, who’s buying Upton?!