Archive for Hitters

Taking Advantage of the Week 9 Schedule

With such a short season, playing time is even more paramount than it usually is. Instead of a missing game being just 0.6% of the season, it’s now 1.7%. That’s a significant difference. So it’s worth it to look to a team’s schedule to try to take advantage. Do this by seeking out teams scheduled to play the most games in a given week and rostering/starting those hitters. Obviously, that doesn’t mean bench a six game Mike Trout to start an eight game Brian Goodwin, but when you’re past the top couple of tiers at a position, then games scheduled should be a deciding factor.

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Surprise! These Hitters Are Now Regulars — NL 9/9/20

Yesterday, I discussed a slew of American League hitters who suddenly find themselves with regular playing time. Today, let’s check in on the National Leaguers currently with full-time jobs.

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Surprise! These Hitters Are Now Regulars — AL 9/8/20

Phew, it’s quite difficult to keep up with all the roster moves, injuries, and playing time changes. In this crazy season, guys who haven’t even appeared above High-A ball are getting promoted and given significant roles. It’s nuts! If you’re not paying close attention, you may have missed some of the hitters who have become every day players. With only three more weeks of the season, playing time is king and jettisoning that guy who finds himself on the bench for the rando now getting regular at-bats is key to a strong finish. So let’s review some of the American League guys you might not have realized are now playing every day.

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Lineup Analysis (9/5/20)

Here is a quick look at some of the post-deadline trade lineups. Fantasy managers will need to dive in again on Sunday to see if any additional trends develop.

American League

Angels

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Hitters Available Under 40%/Cuttable at 60%+ #5

One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Previous Volumes

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

Gomes is still in a timeshare with Kurt Suzuki, but he’s doing enough in his time to merit consideration. Over his last 50 plate appearances he’s hitting .362/.400/.617 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, and 8 R. He slots as a top 10 catcher over the last month (9th) and 15-day (6th) periods.

Sanchez was in this spot a week ago and has done nothing to change the outlook, hitting .100/.217/.250 in his last seven games. How is he still toting this high of a roster rate?

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Fly Ball Revolution Departers — 9/3/20

Yesterday, I identified and discussed the qualified hitters who had raised their fly ball rates (FB%) the most versus last season. All else being equal, more fly balls leads to more home runs. Fantasy owners like home runs. Unfortunately, not every hitter has decided they wanted to participate in the fly ball revolution. So let’s check out the hitters who have sadly departed and experienced the biggest declines in FB% versus last season. This could help explain disappointing home run totals so far.

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Fly Ball Revolution Joiners — 9/2/20

An underreported avenue to increased home run output is FB%. It’s one of the three variables that directly drive HR/AB, along with strikeout and HR/FB rates. Since the denominator in fly ball rate is all balls in play, it stabilizes much more quickly than HR/FB rate, which uses the smaller denominator of just fly balls. So when evaluating a significant HR/AB change, put more weight on fluctuations in FB% than HR/FB rate when determining how sustainable the change is. With that background out of the way, let’s identify and discuss the hitters who have raised their FB% marks the most versus last season.

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Barrels Per Fly Ball Plus Line Drive Rate Laggards

On Thursday, I listed and discussed some of the leaders in barrels per fly ball plus line drive rate (B/FBLD). Today, let’s check out the other end of the stick — those hitters bringing up the rear of the B/FBLD rankings. Once again, I arbitrarily chose at least 20 FB+LD as the minimum to qualify for the list. We’re going to identify those at 5% and below and discuss the interesting names that might be surprising to find.

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Hitters Available Under 40%/Cuttable at 60%+ #4

One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Previous Volumes

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

  • C Chance Sisco – 7% | Gary Sanchez – 93% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

Sisco is hitting so well that the O’s are getting him and Pedro Severino into the lineup regularly with one DH’ing. Sisco has a 163 wRC+ and 4 HR in 64 PA so far. He is striking out 38% of the time, though it’s slightly counterbalanced by his 19% BB rate.

Sanchez has been a disaster and I just don’t think he’s a necessary hold at this point. The 5 HR can’t overcome the damage of a horrific .139/.253/.361 line in 83 PA. He did have three straight homers back in mid-August and looked like he might be coming out of it, but he’s hitting .188 since in 20 PA.

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Barrels Per Fly Ball Plus Line Drive Rate Leaders

I think by now, we’re all familiar with the Statcast metric barrels. If not, Statcast defines it as thus:

The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015.

To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands.

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