Fly Ball Revolution Joiners — 9/2/20
An underreported avenue to increased home run output is FB%. It’s one of the three variables that directly drive HR/AB, along with strikeout and HR/FB rates. Since the denominator in fly ball rate is all balls in play, it stabilizes much more quickly than HR/FB rate, which uses the smaller denominator of just fly balls. So when evaluating a significant HR/AB change, put more weight on fluctuations in FB% than HR/FB rate when determining how sustainable the change is. With that background out of the way, let’s identify and discuss the hitters who have raised their FB% marks the most versus last season.
| Name | 2019 FB% | 2020 FB% | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Goodrum | 31.5% | 48.4% | 16.9% |
| Luke Voit | 34.7% | 45.8% | 11.1% |
| Tommy La Stella | 33.2% | 43.8% | 10.6% |
| Jean Segura | 27.1% | 37.3% | 10.2% |
| Alex Gordon | 30.7% | 40.8% | 10.1% |
| Ryan McMahon | 27.9% | 37.5% | 9.6% |
| Trevor Story | 42.3% | 51.4% | 9.1% |
| Joey Gallo | 47.2% | 55.9% | 8.7% |
| George Springer | 35.7% | 44.4% | 8.7% |
| Max Muncy | 38.7% | 47.3% | 8.6% |
| Giovanny Urshela | 33.4% | 41.9% | 8.5% |
| Andrew McCutchen | 36.6% | 44.7% | 8.1% |
| Matt Chapman | 43.1% | 51.1% | 8.0% |
Who guessed Niko Goodrum would lead baseball — by far — in FB% gain? In his previous two seasons, his high was just 33%, so this is a massive gain. It looks like he may have completely changed his approach too, as his strikeout rate has skyrocketed, while his SwStk% also sits at a career high. With a .286 wOBA, the apparent sell out for power hasn’t worked out very well just yet, though fantasy owners can’t complain about five homers and steals.
Remember that ridiculous 132 at-bat stretch Luke Voit enjoyed during his Yankees debut in 2018? His power output has returned to that insane level. And since he has raised his FB% above 40% to a career high, his actual power has been even more impressive, even if he’s hitting homers on his flies at about the same rate as that stretch. It’s pretty amazing that he has been able to keep his BABIP over .300 despite the fact he’s hitting so many more flies and is pretty slow.
Tommy La Stella’s FB% jump is making it look like he’s repeating last year’s power output, but it’s an illusion. His HR/FB has been cut in half, but you wouldn’t realize it because of all those extra fly balls plus an elite strikeout rate that easily sits at a new career best. He’s a good example of why it’s so important to look at all the variables driving home runs.
Jean Segura, power hitter. It happened onced, back in 2016, but he has fallen back ever since. Now he’s trying again, but this time pairing the increased HR/FB rate (now at a career high!) with a FB% above 30% for the first time.
Alex Gordon is still playing?
More fly balls when Coors Field is home is a really good thing, but Ryan McMahon is offsetting the goodness by strikeing out so often. I still want to take advantage of his homestands, as his home/away splits are insane.
Trevor Story has always been a fly ball hitter, but this year he has taken that tendency to another level. That he has combined the FB% gain with a reduction in strikeout rate is exciting.
Joey Gallo is back to hitting everything in the air, pushing his FB% above 50% for the first time since 2017. Unfortunately, his HR/FB rate has tumbled and sits at a career low. On the positive side, his strikeout rate is also at a career low, and his SwStk% has declined every single season since his debut. Perhaps there’s hope for a sub-30% strikeout rate eventually! Though whether it negatively affects his power will be the big question.
Everything looks good for George Springer, who happens to be suffering from a measly .209 BABIP. The increased FB% certainly hurts that mark, but not by this much!
This isn’t totally new for Max Muncy, as he posted a 54.9% FB% during his 2015 debut over 102 at-bats. Unfortunately, the high FB%, combined with a low LD%, is killing his BABIP.
Was Giovanny Urshela’s surprise 2019 breakout real? So far, he’s convincing us the answer is yes. Not only has he increased his FB%, but his HR/FB rate has even jumped from last year’s spike. Even more impressive, his walk rate has more than doubled off last year’s low level. He’s looking like the real deal.
Andrew McCutchen’s FB% gains are being watered down by his first single digit HR/FB rate since 2010. He has also stopped walking, as his walk rate is about half his career mark and the first time it’s dipped into single digits. An early sign of massive age-related decline? His SwStk% is also at its best mark since 2010, so that gives us hope this is just some randomness over a small sample.
It’s been a weird season for Matt Chapman, whose walk rate has plummeted, strikeout rate and SwStk% spiked, and is hitting fly balls and pop-ups all over the place. His HR/FB rate keeps rising though, so I don’t think anyone’s complaining.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
How does Hosmer not make the list? He’s up over 15 points in FB% (and not coincidentally having his best season ever)
Ahhh, hate when that happens. He apparently doesn’t have enough ABs to qualify for our leaderboard, which is surprising since he’s just under 100. Too bad, as he is a good one to write about. We’ve been waiting foooorrreevver for this FB% spike! It’s even combined with the best strikeout rate and SwStk% of his career.
Ah, right. Forgot he missed a week or so in there.
I picked him up almost as an afterthought and he has morphed into a legitimately good hitter and I think it is definitely intentional. I forget where but I saw some articles from the offseason where he was saying he needs to get the ball in the air more. Moreover, if you use the graphing feature on his page for 25 game rolling periods his FB% has never been this high except for the very start of his career in 2011. But the last time he even touched 40% over a 25 game stretch was in 2014. Over his last 5 seasons his peaks were around 36% but his 1st 11 games this year were a FB-palooza at 54% and his 25 game trailing number peaked at 46%. Now, he’s cooled some since then (26% over his last 14 games) so maybe it was a mirage, but I have to believe a spike like that can’t be by accident.
Statcast backs it up with career highs by wide margins in LA, SweetSpot%, LD% (Statcast categorizes batted balls differently than FG so a lot of his FB here are LD per Statcast), xwOBA and xwOBACON. He’s always hit the ball plenty hard enough to be a good hitter, if he’s now decided to elevate, along with returning to prior plate discipline numbers, he’s suddenly among the better hitters in baseball, playing every day and locked into the 4th spot in maybe the best lineup in baseball. Sign me up for that
Do you see anything in Segura to indicate a real change, a la Kendrick a couple years ago?
Isn’t the increased FB% the change?
How does an increase in FB% for these players influence their BABIP and batting average? I’m wondering how much of these FB% gains are actually a positive to their games. Or how should I go about figuring this out?
Between the three batted ball buckets – grounders, flies, and line drives – fly balls fall for hits significantly less often. So on the average, a hitter trading grounders and/or liners for flies should suffer a BABIP decline. A power hitter wants to raise his FB% (to a point of course, no need for a 100% fly ball rate!) because he could actually take advantage of a high HR/FB rate. It makes no sense for a Billy Hamilton to hit so many flies since the overwhelming majority will just find outfielder gloves, with few flying over the wall.
Is there a way to use this change in hitting profile to adjust what their likely BABIP should be? From there I can guestimate the direction of regression that can be expected if this new profile is to continue.
An increase in FB% may not be a positive if it comes at the expense of LD%. Would GB% decliners would be a better list to identify hitters who’ve improved their batted ball profile?
There are no absolutes as it depends on the type of player and the rest of the underlying skill metrics. A higher FB% isn’t necessarily good or bad for overall offensive production. In these articles, I’m solely focusing on home run power, in which case a higher FB% is a good thing. I wouldn’t read any further into it.
Maybe I don’t understand HR/FB as well as I thought. I was under the impression some luck was tied to it. Looking at La Stella I’m not sure his continued power production from last year is an illusion.
maxEV is up to 108.8 from 105.9
LA is up to 16.1 from 13.2
Pull% is up to 48.5 from 39.8
However his HardHit% is down to 28.9 from 30.7
Again, maybe I am confused on how HR/FB functions but looking at those numbers I would expect his luck to turn and his 9.5% HR/FB to climb closer to last years 18.4%.
I remember an xHR/FB formula bouncing around here a few years ago, is there a newer metric to look at for HR/FB regression?
Average LA is meaningless as a hitter could average a particular LA in any number of ways that are completely different (50 degree and 0 degree averages the same 25 degrees as two 25 degree balls, but would produce dramatically different results). Pull% needs to only include fly balls, it doesn’t matter what he does on his grounders. HardHit% is the same way — it’s includes all batted balls. We only care about balls that could go for a home run, which are flies, and sometimes line drives if the launch angle is high enough.
This is my xHR/FB rate equation:
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/revealed-statcast-charged-batter-xhr-fb-rate-version-2-0/
It uses barrel rate, avg fly ball distance, and fly ball pull and opposite field rate.