Every year we get a group of players who emerge from being completely off the radar and turn into fantasy stars. This season might have added to that phenomenon by only being two months of action. After all, how often do we see one of these out of nowhere players have a fast start before tailing off as the six-month grind wears on? Plenty hold up and become something real, but many others fade. Well, no chance to fade with just two months so let’s take a look at this year’s Out of Nowhere All-Stars and assess their ’21 outlook, too.

Note: this is not a complete list, there are definitely more than eight candidates so feel free to include yours in the comments and I’ll give my thoughts on them in a response.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa | C, 3B – TEX

There’s one key letter that completely dictactes everything for IKF: C. His catcher-eligibility drove his fantasy interest this year and for me it was the fact that he wouldn’t have to catch much (turns out he hasn’t caught at all), though I did soft pedal on him a bit when we discussed him for summer drafts. Turns out I should’ve held firm in my love for non-catching catchers.

IKF has enjoyed a career year and while he only has an 88 wRC+, it comes with 3 HR and 8 SB which is enough to make him a top 10 catcher (7th on Razzball’s Player Rater). Unfortunately, he’ll lose the catcher eligibility for 2021 which severely curbs his outlook. He has been the 22nd best 3B and 21st best SS meaning he’s likely an AL only option.

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It’s hard to really break up a 60-game season into pieces since the whole is a relatively small sample on its own. That said, Byron Buxton seemed to be getting off to his normal slow start with a .221/.225/.456 line through 21 games (a small sample, but 35% of this year’s season) and that was only buoyed by a 3-game homer streak in games 9 through 11 (.401 OPS before that). Again, that is a relatively small number of plate appearances (71), but it was fitting Buxton’s pattern so I know I had some confirmation bias around that time like “here we go again!”.

He then suffered a left shoulder injury (inflammation) that sent him to the IL for the fourth straight season and it was the same shoulder that he hurt in 2019 so the “here we go again” vibes kicked into overdrive at that point. After missing 11 games, he returned on September 1st and he’s been on fire since then with a .340/.353/.800 line with 7 HR, 13 RBI, and 8 R in 51 PA including hits in 12 of his 13 starts (there are two defensive replacement appearances in which he has 1 PA and went 0-for-1). The power surge is the most impressive part of the run with nine of his 17 hits going for extra bases highlighted the seven dingers.

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09/18/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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BIGGEST K% IMPROVERS

• Jared Walsh
• Max Stassi
• Pat Valaika
• Rowdy Tellez
• Will Smith

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Yesterday, I discussed the teams scheduled to play eight games next week and the players widely available who might be worth a pickup, depending on your alternatives. Today, let’s identify the teams with the fewest games next week and which hitters you might consider benching, or even outright dropping, as a result. The advice here is aimed at shallower (12 teams) mixed leagues with weekly transactions.

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Next week is the last full one of the MLB season! Sheesh has the season gone quickly. We still have make-up games to be played so four teams will be playing eight games apiece. Remember that this isn’t as much of a boost as it would have been in previous seasons, as doubleheaders last just seven innings, so each extra game via doubleheader means just five more innings, rather than nine. In addition, a doubleheader might give a manager an opportunity to rest a player you think is a regular, completely canceling out the supposed advantage of the extra game(s). In fact, that could actually hurt, because the game they actually played was two innings less. Still, when you are teetering between two hitters, the extra game(s) could be the deciding factor on who to start for the week.

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09/15/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Josh Bell on fire (.333/.414/.600, 5 HR in last 70 PA)
• Dinelson Lamet insane again
• Pablo Lopez rebounds (7 IP/1 ER, 6 K)
• Will Smith quietly dominating (178 wRC+)

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After tackling the new American League regulars yesterday, let’s now dive back into the National League to discuss the hitters who are now seeing every day playing time.

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It’s only been a week since the first edition of this series, and yet there are enough new regulars to post an update. With just two weeks left in the season, playing time is paramount. Don’t get stuck starting a bench player unless you literally have no other options.

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American League

Angels

• Matt Thaiss (.566 OPS) has started three straight games while hitting second.
• Andrelton Simmons is batting leadoff since returning from the IL.
• Luis Rengifo (.461) and Franklin Barreto (.284 OPS) aren’t playing enough to matter.

Astros

• With Jose Altuve out, Aledmys Díaz has been playing second base. He’s hitting at the bottom of the lineup against righties but bats second against lefties.

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One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Previous Volumes

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

• C Daulton Varsho – 2% | Gary Sánchez – 81% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

Varsho is finding more playing time in the outfield and starting to deliver some production. He has a .911 OPS in the last week with 2 HR, 5 RBI, and 6 R in 25 PA. His strikeout rate is at 29% on the year, but down to 16% in this last week while his walk rate is at 9% on the season and 12% last week. I’m particularly excited for Varsho in 2021 and expect to have him on many target lists.

Sanchez has become a staple here, but it’s because he has a comically high roster rate at this point in 1-catcher leagues. Another dreadful week for Sanchez (.067/.125/.267, 1 HR), but keep clinging to those projections for the final few weeks, I’m sure he’s about to start hitting them!

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