A whopping eight years ago, I shared the hitter xK% metric I developed using a couple of our plate discipline metrics. It was quite good, using only three variables, but still had a strong R-squared of 0.81. Since then, I haven’t discussed it all that much, but still use it to help formulate my Pod Projections. However, I have actually been using an updated version that I had never shared and it’s even better. The comments on my recent xwOBA articles inspired me to finally reveal the latest and greatest version of the hitter xK% metric.

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters with at least 200 PA who have most underperformed their xwOBA marks. Today, let’s now flip to the overperformers, those who have posted wOBA marks most above their xwOBA marks.

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It’s been nearly two months since I reviewed xwOBA and listed and discussed both the underperformers and overperformers. So let’s get back to it as we near the halfway point in the season. Obviously, xwOBA isn’t perfect. No expected metrics are and they never will be. However, it does a better job of predicting future wOBA than wOBA itself, even though it’s not even built as a predictive stat (it’s backward looking). So with that in mind, let’s investigate the hitters who have most underperformed their xwOBA marks so far.

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Baseball collects a lot of data. It’s awesome. FanGraphs is a fun place for data. Exit velocity, spin rate, launch angle; these are fun data points. But, the vast majority of data that is floating around in lakes and clouds is generally not as exciting. Take some kind of machinery for example. Right now there are gears whirling, sensors sensing, detectors detecting, you get the point. This type of data is typically referenced in discussions about the internet of things (IoT). Baseball analytics has always benefited from what is learned in industry and in this post, I’ll be investigating whether a common industry technique, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), can be useful in baseball analytics. 

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6/14/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host

SUMMER STUDS: 4 BUBBLING BREAKOUTS

• Yoán Moncada (3:07)
• Eugenio Suárez (10:32)
• Whit Merrifield (16:00)
• Dylan Carlson (22:24)

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Yesterday, I perused the Triple-A hitter HR/FB rate leaderboard and discussed the AL hitters at the top. Now let’s jump to the NL and determine whether any of these sluggers could find themselves in the Majors within the next month. Once again, I have excluded any hitters who are already in the Majors and this list only includes qualified hitters.

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Not everyone is playing in a high-stakes NFBC league. Some of us are just trying to beat our family members, friends, or random strangers who have agreed to play fantasy baseball with us. In addition, not all of us are in deep leagues. Sometimes it’s hard getting even 10 people to pay enough attention to baseball for a full season to make your league competitive. If you just so happen to find yourself in one of these shallow leagues, like an ESPN or CBS league, where the stakes are low, the waiver wire is full of talent and everyone is bought in, consider yourself lucky. But, don’t consider yourself in an easy league.

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Let’s continue our future minor league callup series, this time moving to the metric I probably care most about — HR/FB rate. Since home runs is a category and wOBA is not in the majority of fantasy leagues, we could directly understand the potential impact a high (or low) HR/FB rate could have for fantasy teams. So let’s now begin in the American League by reviewing and discussing the Triple-A HR/FB rate leaders. Once again, I have excluded any hitters who are already in the Majors and this list only includes qualified hitters.

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Yesterday, I discussed the American League Triple-A hitters leading in wOBA and their chances of being recalled in the coming weeks. Today, let’s switch over to the National League. As a reminder, I’m excluding any hitters currently in the Majors.

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Chances are if you picked up Trevor Larnach in a shallower league, you cut him after a couple of weeks due to poor performance. Two weeks in he was running a .186/.314/.326 with just a single homer. A week later he was at .228/.389/.456 so he was still hitting a lot of waiver wires despite some OPS improvement. The walks were great but there was little else in terms of production. Hell, even his .247/.389/.438 to date doesn’t scream “pick up!” And yet, that’s exactly what I’m doing because I see Larnach having a strong summer that will make him relevant across many formats.

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