After spending his first nine seasons in Pittsburgh, Andrew McCutchen will now be joining his fourth team in two years. McCutchen agreed to a three-year deal with the Phillies, likely spoiling Roman Quinn’s sleeper hype. Having played the vast majority of his career in home parks that seriously favored pitchers, will the move to Citizens Bank Park boost his offense? Let’s check the park factors.
The current fantasy focus is evaluating the top-100 or so players, especially the first couple rounds. I’m going to deep dive and investigate some later round values. I will group 10 players together and pick which one I would take earlier than the others.
201: Arodys Vizcaino
202: Jonathan Schoop
203: Kevin Gausman
204: Luke Voit
205: Chris Taylor
206: Jake Arrieta
207: Forrest Whitley
208: Ross Stripling
209: Odubel Herrera
210: Yusei Kikuchi
There are several players I really like in this group like Taylor, Stripling, and Herrera but easily the best bargain is Kikuchi.
Kikuchi isn’t on par with Asian imports Ohtani or Darvish but he’s still extremely talented. He’s considered to be a better talent than Miles Mikolas and Mikolas is going 86th overall. I believe once Kikuchi signs and everyone gets to know him, his ADP will be cut in half and around a top-100 pick, if not double digits.
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Though as I type this it hasn’t been made official yet, word is that Billy Hamilton has signed a one-year deal with the Royals. If only they still had Jarrod Dyson, they would essentially have two of the same player on their roster! Amazingly, Hamilton has yet to crack a .300 wOBA, but his superb fielding in center field has kept him in the lineup on most days. Is there any hope for a park-switch related boost to his offense? Let’s check the park factors.
Last Thursday, Jonathan Schoop signed a one-year deal with the Twins, bringing him back to the American League after a short stint with the Brewers in the National League. After posting the highest wOBA of his career in 2017, his offense sunk this season, as his wOBA dipped below .300, thanks primarily to a dramatic decline in BABIP. Will the move to Minnesota help him rebound? Let’s see what the park factors have to say. Since h played nearly his entire career in Baltimore, amassing just 134 plate appearances in Milwaukee, we’ll keep the comparison between Baltimore and Minnesota.
This study came about from a comment made in passing by Jeff Erikson and Scott Jenstad in a RotoWire podcast. They were discussing how they were worried more about hitters who were striking out on fastballs instead of breaking balls. They figured it was worse to strikeout on fastballs and it showed the hitter was in decline. I don’t remember the exact show but I agreed and now have time verify. And as usual, the pair was right with three-hitter groups differentiating themselves from the pack.
The first key was that I wasn’t interested in the batter ability to tell balls from strikes. Instead, I wanted to focus on pitches right down the heart of the plate while keeping the strike zone as big as possible to increase the sample size. In the end, the taken pitches in the zone used were called strikes 97% of the time.
Next, I found the swinging strike rate for pitches in the strike zone. I grouped the pitches into several groups.
Another day, another blockbuster. I literally went “ohhh my God” when I read the news on Rotoworld. Obviously, you know by now that Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals. Was he on the block? I had no idea, though admittedly I pay little attention to speculation and rumors. Let’s try to figure out how the switch in home parks might affect his performance.
For fantasy baseball writers, this time of year means only one thing, player profiles. Dozens and dozens of player profiles to slog through. While writing up some hitters, I can to the realization I didn’t have a quick method to flag hitters who may be shifted. While I could navigate to the splits page, scroll down, and calculate each player’s shift rate, I wanted a quick and dirty method to flag them. While I went over several methods, I settled on one stat and two values.
I did some shift work for an older edition of a The Hardball Times Annual but I have stayed away from the topic over the last few years. My initial conclusions stand which are the shift really affected some hitters and the rate of effectiveness slowly declines more players are shifted. The shift isn’t going away though. It’s still effective against slow pull hitters.
I initially thought a hitter’s pulled groundball rate would be a major factor, but it was not. Just pull rate was enough.
It was easy to mock the Padres signing of Eric Hosmer to an 8-year $144 million deal. It’s a real possibility that literally everyone outside the key decision makers in the Padres front office believed that it was a bad deal. After his first season, the doubters are up 1-0. He posted the second lowest wOBA of his career and lowest since 2012. This after coming off his best career mark, meaning that his wOBA plummeted an exorbitant 0.67 points. Since you’re generally paying a first baseman for his offense, a .309 wOBA simply doesn’t cut it. So what went wrong?
I’ve always been a week or two behind evaluating hitters so I continue trying to find ways to gain an edge. Today’s stab in the dark is trying to see if StatCast data can determine if a player is hurt. A recent study of mine found no correlation between playing through an injury and exceeding their projection in the next season. Instead of looking at preseason projections, I’m going to go a little more in-season today and determine how much of an impact an injury has on a hitter’s in-season production.
As Al showed, there are a ton of metric available StatCast batted ball metrics to use. I started down the path of using several of them but quickly found there is more to injuries than just power. A hitter’s plate discipline and speed results (e.g. turning singles into doubles) also matter. Instead of incorporation all of them in, I decided to use BaseballSavant’s xwOBA metric to measure a hitter’s production since it combines all of these factors.
Oops. I was very wrong about Javier Baez, but man what a year he enjoyed. With a .290/.326/.554 triple slash en route to a .366 wOBA, this was a full breakout for the former top prospect. For his reward, he finished in second place in this year’s National League MVP voting. So let’s discuss what drove the breakout.
