Breakout Breakdown: Javier Baez

Oops. I was very wrong about Javier Baez, but man what a year he enjoyed. With a .290/.326/.554 triple slash en route to a .366 wOBA, this was a full breakout for the former top prospect. For his reward, he finished in second place in this year’s National League MVP voting. So let’s discuss what drove the breakout.

First, and importantly, he ended up amassing significantly more plate appearances than I expected. He actually played in 160 games and hopped over the 600 PA hump for the first time. The concern here was the Cubs’ glut of infielders and outfielders, raising questions about where Baez would slot in. At the very least, he would act as a super utility guy, playing all over the field (he appeared at every position in the infield and once in the outfield in 2017). But would that be enough to get him to even 500 plate appearances, let alone 600?

Turned out, injuries and poor performance allowed him to play just about every day, mostly at second base, and a third of the time at shortstop. Very often, breakouts are simply the result of a surprise increase in playing time. While that was a contributor, Baez also did a whole lot more with the bat in those extra plate appearances.

What Went Right

  • Boosted HR/FB rate to a career high, pushing it above 20% for the first time

How much of this jump was real and how much of it looks clearly unsustainable? I turn to my trusty xHR/FB rate equation to learn the answer. Let’s put his underlying metrics into table form to really spot the changes:

Javier Baez xHR/FB Rate Components
Season Brls/True FB FB Pull% FB Oppo% Avg FB Distance HR/FB xHR/FB HR/FB – xHR/FB
2018 45.2% 30.0% 37.1% 338 24.3% 26.2% -1.9%
2017 26.4% 22.2% 34.2% 336 19.7% 16.8% 2.9%
2016 19.4% 30.0% 36.4% 310 12.7% 13.6% -0.8%

Holy guacamole, that’s quite the Brls/True FB trend! His 2018 mark compares favorably to the league average of around 22% and it ranks 15th among the 499 hitters on my spreadsheet. So explanation #1 — he barreled the hell out of balls! Moving along to FB Pull%, we find that it dipped in 2017 and then rebounded to match his 2016 mark. Note that this is also above the league average which was almost 24% in 2018. While this on its own didn’t lead to the breakout, the rebound combined with major barrelage certainly did.

Next, his FB Oppo% has remained relatively stable for the past three years. A higher mark is actually a negative for home run power, but he’s slightly below the league average. Last, his Avg FB Distance first surged in 2017. He was able to sustain that gain and increase it ever so slightly more. So overall, it’s clear that the primary driver of his HR/FB rate surge is the fantastic Brls/True FB, which combines fly ball exit velocity and launch angle. And lo and behold, his xHR/FB rate was actually slightly higher than his actual mark, which is a good sign.

Is this sustainable? Well, he was always a big-time power prospect in the minors, and a mid-20% HR/FB rate isn’t outrageous or dramatically higher than his 2017 mark. So while projecting some regression is clearly the right move, I will most certainly forecast another HR/FB rate in the low 20% range.

  • Boosted LD% to a career high, above 20% for the first time

Baez struggled to hit liners in 2017 and was below average in 2016, so it was a surprise to see him suddenly turn things around and raise that line drive rate to an above average level. Line drive rates are rather noisy though and found to sport the lowest year-to-year correlation of all the hitting metrics tested. So we would expect that rate to continue to bounce around, but odds are better it drops than rises again in 2019.

  • Raised BABIP again to new career high

A power surge wasn’t enough, Baez also made sure that more of his balls in play dropped for a hit than ever before. For the third straight year, he has posted a mark above .335, which is pretty impressive. Let’s check out his xBABIP components to find out how he did it:

Javier Baez xBABIP Components
Season LD% TFB%* TIFFB%** Hard% Spd PGBWS%*** % BIP Shifted BABIP xBABIP Diff
2018 22.1% 28.6% 3.7% 35.8% 7.1 4.5% 20.9% 0.347 0.336 0.011
2017 15.4% 32.6% 3.4% 32.4% 5.3 5.1% 22.3% 0.345 0.288 0.057
2016 19.5% 32.4% 4.0% 29.1% 4.7 7.0% 32.7% 0.336 0.287 0.049
True FB%*
True IFFB%**
Pull GB While Shifted%***

Hmmmm, so if we start all the way to the right, we find out that Baez may have been quite a bit fortunate to have posted such inflated BABIP marks in 2016 and 2017. Finally, this was the first year he seemingly deserved that high BABIP. One of the main drivers was that LD% discussed earlier. He also hit fewer outfield fly balls and boosted his Hard% to a career best. Furthermore, he became a speed demon overnight — it’s not often you see a player improve their Spd score so dramatically from one season to the next! Then we have the shift statistics. We see that he never had a big problem hitting grounders into the shift, but he actually just posted his lowest mark, and also faced the shift least often.

Unlike what we found with his HR/FB rate, there was no primary explanation for the career best BABIP. Instead, it was a variety of factors. Although he had seemingly proven to be a high BABIP guy, the xBABIP components hadn’t agreed until this season. He had either benefited from lots of good fortune in 2016 and 2017 or was doing something not captured by the equation, which is a very real possibility. Looking ahead to 2019, I would expect some regression in LD% and Spd, and since I will still be factoring in those sub-.300 xBABIPs from 2016 and 2017, will likely forecast a lower BABIP than he has posted these past three seasons.

  • Increased Z-Swing% to career high

Baez’s Z-Swing% increased for the second straight season. Obviously, the goal for any hitter is to swing at strikes and pass on balls, but Baez swings at everything! However, that was improved dramatically this year:

Javier Baez Plate Discipline
Season O-Swing% Z-Swing% Z-Swing% – O-Swing%
2016 42.9% 67.9% 25.0%
2017 45.1% 72.6% 27.5%
2018 45.5% 78.0% 32.5%

His Z-Swing% – O-Swing% rose to a career best, which would be a positive sign for any hitter. But for Baez in particular because he simply stinks at making contact. When you know you stink at making contact, then it makes absolutely no sense to watch a strike cross the plate without swinging. You need to be swinging at every single strike that is remotely hittable, because you’re going to need as many chances to make contact as possible! So even though his O-Swing% is still way too high, at least he’s swinging more often at strikes, which should lead to better contact quality.

2019 Outlook

This is not a 2019 outlook post so I’ll keep this short and sweet. Unlike many breakouts each year, Baez’s 2018 performance appeared to be completely supported by all his underlying skills. That’s a great sign, but it doesn’t mean we can bank on a repeat. It just means there’s a better chance of one.

That said, I would still expect regression across the board, most notably in his stolen base total. What he really needs to do is stop swinging at balls so frequently, which would raise his walk rate and make him a far better overall hitter. But there’s been no indication this is going to happen anytime soon. Because I see significantly more downside than upside from here, he’s likely going to be too expensive for me to purchase during next year’s drafts and auctions.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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CC AFCmember
5 years ago

I’m fading him so hard this year. 18% swinging strike rate? 4.5% walk rate which includes 8 intentional walks? No thank you. I’ll bet against the line drive rate and the babip repeating, too. I’ll go down with my ship betting against this profile if it happens.

Art Fay
5 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Absolutely. If you ever watch him, he has no plan at the plate whatsoever. He’s just hacking through the tall weeds. His defense is ridiculous though. Maybe he hacks his way to another great season, but like you, I wouldn’t bet on it (or overpay come draft time).