Archive for Head to Head

Troy Tulowitzki Leaves Coors

Troy Tulowitzki managed to stay healthy enough to accumulate the most plate appearances he has since 2011. Surely that would have resulted in an excellent fantasy season, and perhaps some profit for those owners who were willing to take on such an injury risk. But that’s not what happened. Though he still finished third among shortstops in fantasy value, he earned just below $10 and posted the second worst wOBA of his career. If that wasn’t bad enough, he was then traded out of the cozy confines of Coors Field, making forecasting his near-term future difficult.

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Carlos Correa: Future Roto Star

You have to scroll all the way down to the 24th ranked shortstop, Eugenio Suarez, to find a hitter who recorded fewer at-bats than Carlos Correa did this season. And yet, Correa still managed to finish second in dollar value among all shortstops. He did it in just 387 at-bats and 432 plate appearances.

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Justin Turner, The Forgotten Dodgers Star

When the Dodgers traded Juan Uribe on May 27, long-time super utility player Justin Turner finally became a full-time starter. In the months since, Turner’s performance earned him praise, including from Dave Cameron on JABO, but it didn’t quite click for me just how good Turner had been until I looked at his offensive numbers from the past two seasons. Among hitters with at least 500 plate appearances since 2014, Turner has the 11th-best wRC+ (148), just behind Anthony Rizzo and ahead of players including Nelson Cruz, Jose Abreu, Michael Brantley, and the likely first selected fantasy third baseman in 2016 drafts, Josh Donaldson.

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Bryant and Sano and Franco, Oh My!

2015 was a wonderful year for rookies. In fact, it was the best offensive seasons in aggregate for the freshman class over the last five years:

Rookie wRC

And this year’s group looks like it may have introduced us to several future superstars. Amazingly, three of them play third base.

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Macha(do), Macha(do) Man(ny)

This is what a breakout looks like:

Manny Machado

The third overall pick in the 2010 Amateur Draft, Manny Machado made his MLB debut at the tender age of 20 and took baby steps to gradually increase his offensive performance heading into 2015. The power remained ho-hum, he was a poor base stealer, and he was a bit too much of a free swinger, routinely posting below average walk rates. Furthermore, he dealt with major knee issues that required surgery in both 2013 and 2014. But then 2015 happened and he loudly announced his good health and validated why he was a former top prospect.

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The Mike Moustakas Breakout Happened!

I wrote a lot about Mike Moustakas heading into the 2015 season. First, I asked whether there was any hope for the man affectionately known as Moose Tacos. Although if you stared closely enough at his statistical trends, you could see a tiny seed blooming painfully slowly, it seemed obvious that there were too many flaws to make him worth a roster spot outside of AL-Only leagues. I then took another, perhaps closer look, three months later and proclaimed that the Moustakas breakout was upon us.

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Reviewing 2015 Pod’s Picks: Catcher & First Base

Every year after the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings are published, I compare my column of ranks to a recalculated consensus after excluding mine. It’s a fun little activity and it allows me to figure out why I might be more bullish or bearish on a particular player than the rest of the crew. Although I published all infielders in one post in the preseason, I’ll only look at a couple of positions at a time for the recaps. We’ll start with the catchers and first basemen.

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Not Nervous About Wong

Entering the 2015 season, Kolten Wong was basking in the glow of a strong playoff series where he hit 3 HR’s. His Regular Season numbers in his Rookie season spoke to the inconsistencies of most young batters, but his output as a 24-year-old hitter with a good glove, and in a strong lineup, certainly commanded attention. Wong demonstrated a quick bat as a Rookie and it was not a leap of faith to expect that with experience his numbers would get even better in his Sophomore Season.

Three respected Projection Systems saw Wong producing these numbers in 2015….

System PA R HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG wOBA
Pecota 571 65 11 55 23 .258 .307 .384 .312
ZIPS 552 65 11 50 21 .264 .310 .389 .309
Steamer 510 51 11 52 17 .257 .303 .384 .303

In the run up to the All-Star break, Wong put together a very strong .280/.343/.434 line with a .777 OPS and a .337 wOBA. In 353 PAs, he hit 9 HRs, 18 doubles, 2 triples, had 44 runs, 37 RBIs, and 10 steals. His .310 BABIP was unremarkable and he sported a .154 ISO. With this kind of start, that incidentally should have earned him stronger consideration as an All-Star, he was well ahead of the projections. Wong seemed poised to deliver on the promise that we all hoped to see and even a good bit more.

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Reviewing the 2014 xBB% Overachievers, AKA: The Downsiders

Yesterday, I reviewed my short list of pitchers that my xBB% equation suggested had significant room for improvement. Today I check in on those pitchers I identified as having downside, as this group posted xBB% marks well above their actual walk rates in 2014.

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Reviewing the 2014 xBB% Underachievers, AKA: The Upsiders

The preseason reviews continue to trickle in and today I’ll recap my list of xBB% underachievers. Using my xBB% equation, I identified pitchers whose walk rates were well above their xBB%, suggesting likely improvement in 2015. Let’s see how the equation did for the names I discussed.

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