Bryant and Sano and Franco, Oh My!

2015 was a wonderful year for rookies. In fact, it was the best offensive seasons in aggregate for the freshman class over the last five years:

And this year’s group looks like it may have introduced us to several future superstars. Amazingly, three of them play third base.

Kris Bryant, Miguel Sano and Maikel Franco were all heavily hyped and their Major League debuts were highly anticipated. Neither of them disappointed, though Franco’s season came to an abrupt end when he suffered a fractured wrist after getting plunked by a pitch.

Bryant and Sano blasted through the minors as two of the top power hitters in the minors. They also shared other traits in common — they both walked and struck out frequently as well, which is rather characteristic for veteran mashers. That skills package came right along with them from the minors to the Majors:

On the other hand, Franco was a slightly different animal. Let’s now add his metrics to this exciting graph:

First and foremost, my apologies for being incapable of adding a secondary axis on the right side with the ISO numbers. I played around for a while and couldn’t figure it out without ruining the columns. I cannot for the life of me remember what I did for the graph above it to get it to work!

So as you can see, Franco walked at an essentially league average rate, which was well below the duo of Bryant and Sano, but made up for it by striking out far less than the two of them and the league average. Even with the additional contact, he still matched Bryant’s ISO.

If we compare the trio’s average batted ball distances, surprise, surprise, we find very similar marks once again:

Sano and Franco came within a foot of each other, while Bryant fell just about five to six feet shy of the pair. With distances over 290 feet, their power is legit. However, which one of these doesn’t belong?

Player	HR/FB
Kris Bryant	15.8%
Miguel Sano	26.5%
Maikel Franco	15.9%

Hmmmm. Franco and Bryant’s HR/FB rates look reasonable given their respective distances, with perhaps a bit of upside, especially given their 40%+ Pull rates. But Sano’s HR/FB rate looks massively inflated, especially considering his Pull% was identical to Franco’s and just marginally higher than Bryant’s.

Since I just received the data, I could tell you that the answer lies in his massive Standard Deviation of Distance (SDD), which is a component of my xHR/FB rate equation. A quick plug in of the components of the equation actually yields a 24.2% xHR/FB rate. So, maybe he wasn’t so fortunate after all! That said, it’s still highly, highly unlikely he could sustain such an inflated SDD, so I’m certainly betting on some HR/FB rate regression next year.

Another driver of power is fly ball rate and of course, our brothers Bryant and Sano posted very similar marks, both above 40%, making them extreme fly ball hitters. That’s good if you’re looking for homers. Franco, though, likes his role as the odd man out, as his FB% sat closer to the league average, in the mid-30% range. Though Franco was certainly considered a power hitter in the minors, it wasn’t near the degree as the other two were, and he probably was the only one who truly exceeded his power expectations this season. As a result, extra fly balls are more important since there is probably a lower ceiling for his HR/FB rate.

So clearly Bryant and Sano have the profile to deliver fantastic power numbers and homer totals next year. Franco not as much, though he should be respectable in the category. But where Franco does have the advantage is batting average, fueled by that significantly better strikeout rate. Even though Franco’s BABIP just missed reaching the .300 mark and the other two posted BABIP marks above .370, Franco still edged them in average.

But aside from some small samples, Franco has never shown strong BABIP skills in the minors and in his first two tastes of the Majors, has displayed a proneness to the pop-up. Still, there’s more upside to a .297 BABIP than a .378 or .396 mark! Bryant’s batted ball distribution does not appear to support that .378 BABIP as he was an extreme fly ball hitter with a league average line drive rate and low Oppo%. He did always post high BABIP marks in the minors though.

Sano’s batted ball profile was very similar to Bryant’s, except with a higher line drive rate. It still doesn’t come anywhere near supporting a .396 BABIP of course. And he had a spottier history of high BABIPs in the minors than Bryant did. His strikeout rate will improve I’m sure, but not enough so to offset a potentially cratering BABIP. Or, wait, maybe his ridiculous Hard% that would have led baseball if he qualified for the leaderboard will allow him to sustain an extremely high mark going forward.

Okay, so we’re nearing the end here and I’ve discussed how similar these players are, all of whom bring huge power, while two of them walk and strike out a lot, and the other doing neither of those very often. Other than some inflated BABIP marks that are ripe for at least some regression, there was nothing fluky about their performances. Enjoy their growth and those future 40 homer seasons. I know I will.