Validating High Hitter HR/FB Rates With Batted Ball Distance

Last week, I identified five hitters whose batted ball distance suggested better HR/FB rate days may be ahead and another five hitters who may be in for a sudden HR/FB rate decline. That’s one way to use a hitter’s average home run and fly ball distance — as a predictive metric to speculate on improvers and regressers moving forward. The other use is to validate as a backwards looking tool. Player X’s HR/FB rate has spiked, has his batted ball distance surged as well? The batter would seemingly have a better shot at sustaining that increased HR/FB rate if it came with a similar trend in his distance. Of course, he may not sustain the distance, in which case the HR/FB rate would fall. But we still want to see the two match up.

So let’s start on the high end of the HR/FB rate spectrum and discuss some names that also have the distance to back it up.

High HR/FB Rate Validations

Name	HR/FB	Distance	Distance Rank (out of 250)
Steven Souza Jr.	34.6%	306.3	19
Byung-ho Park	25.7%	312.8	10
Eric Hosmer	24.2%	306.2	20
Christian Yelich	22.7%	314.2	8
Trevor Story	22.6%	326.7	1
Brandon Drury	21.2%	321.8	4
Jose Altuve	20.0%	301.1	38

Steven Souza Jr. leads baseball in HR/FB rate. I still remember early in Spring Training when Roster Resource assumed Souza would open the season in the minors due to the glut of Tampa outfielders. Let’s get this out of the way — Souza’s batted ball distance does not fully validate his league leading HR/FB rate. Of course not. However, his distance is up 16 feet from last year when he posted a 20.5% HR/FB rate. He’s pulling his fly balls more frequently this year, which is a good strategy to hit more homers. So this is certainly a more powerful Souza, though not nearly to the degree his current HR/FB rate might suggest. The good news is that even when that HR/FB rate does regress, his FB% should rise back above 30%, limiting his home run downside.

We all knew that Byung-ho Park had power when the Twins signed him this offseason. What we didn’t know was how that power would translate to the Majors. Well, so far, so good. His HR/FB rate ranks seventh in baseball, and it’s completely supported by a batted ball distance that ranks 10th. He is still striking out often, which is going to limit his raw home run total and his batting average, but that won’t affect his HR/FB rate. He’s even hitting more fly balls than grounders, which should further boost his home run total, but certainly not his BABIP.

The knock on Eric Hosmer has always been that he hits far too many ground balls to make a serious push for 20+ home runs. Well this season has been no different — his ground ball rate has actually reached a career high, but he has traded line drives, rather than fly balls, so his fly ball rate is the same low mark it typically is. However, a 22 foot jump in batted ball distance would do the trick of finally getting him over the 20 homer hump, even without an increase in fly ball rate. At 26, he’s at a good age for a power spike, though it would be a lot cooler if he had the fly ball rate to truly take advantage.

Speaking of requiring the fly ball rate to take advantage, Christian Yelich is the real poster child. He’s currently sporting an 18.5% fly ball rate…and that’s a career high! In early February, I published the full list of players with HR/FB rate upside according to my xHR/FB rate equation. While I chose not to identify Yelich as one of the eight with major upside, he was right up there with an xHR/FB rate 6.1% higher than his actual rate. His home park has killed him, but not this year. After the park’s fences were moved in, suddenly Yelich is sporting a 30% HR/FB rate at home. His home HR/FB rate sat between just 5% and 6% in 2014 and 2015!

In the first six games of the season, Trevor Story hit seven homers and posted a 53.8% HR/FB rate. Since then, he has posted a more reasonable 12.5% HR/FB rate. And now his season mark is much more sustainable, especially given his friendly home environment. But do you see the last number in the Story row in the table above? That’s a 1. Story is leading baseball in average batted ball distance. In those first six games, his distance was an absurd 356 feet. Since, it’s at….315 feet, which would rank sixth in baseball. In other words, yeah, Story probably isn’t legitimately the best guy in baseball from a distance perspective. BUT! He has remained elite, even while his HR/FB rate has plummeted.

Brandon Drury?! This is the same guy with scouting grades of 45/50 for Game Power, last reported in September of 2014 and an ETA of 2017. This is also a guy who posted an unimpressive .155 ISO throughout his minor league career, hitting about 13 homers per 600 plate appearances. Essentially, not someone you would expect to explode for a 20%+ HR/FB rate and a 320+ distance mark that ranks fourth in baseball. A hot 151 plate appearances, or a power breakout for a 23 year old?

Nearly doubling his HR/FB rate last year wasn’t enough for Jose Altuve. No, he has decided to gun for 20/40. His HR/FB rate is now nearly triple last year’s HR/FB rate breakout, which is also five times his 2014 mark. He has more than doubled his walk rate, and is hitting line drives at a career best clip and rarely popping up. All this while still swinging and missing significantly less often than the league. I have no idea what he is suddenly doing to tap into all this power, but his distance has surged by 27 feet from last year and 31 feet from 2014. Whether he could keep this up is anyone’s guess, but his results are fully validated by his distance.