It’s the All Star Break already! My, has time gone by quickly. So let’s check in on xBABIP, Alex Chamberlain’s version, and begin by identifying those hitters who might enjoy a batting average surge over the second half. I have included all the components of the equation in the table so we could discuss what’s driving the xBABIP.
Couple of injuries and movement of closers have shaken up the grid over the past few days, so let’s look and see how those situations are going to work out.
Previous Rankings
It’s been interesting to watch the path of first basemen this season, as some of the big names started off relatively slow. I probably had too many tiers since guys were all over the place and I was still getting my feet wet with this process. I was now able to cut it down to five tiers and I am feeling more comfortable with these evaluations than past ones mainly because the numbers are starting to normalize well.
Alex Chamberlain brought up an interesting question in his rankings, regarding what people are looking for. Should these be rest of the season rankings? End of season? Where players currently stand? I definitely don’t want this to purely be a ranking of what players have done so far, since you can go to other websites and they can quantify that. As I mentioned in my other rankings, these are more predicative, though admittedly, I weighed current season performance more than I have in my other rankings. Although the Jose Abreus, Adrian Gonzalez‘, and Mark Teixeiras gave me some trouble when trying to rank since there should be some bounceback, but their performance so far has not shown much of it (at least in terms of fantasy value).
John Coltrane died on July 17, 1967. In honor of his music, I have decided to set up the tiers by my favorite Coltrane albums. This list can change frequently, and I left off the live performances because that is a whole other world that I may not have been able to escape. However, if you’re new to jazz and want to explore Coltrane, these albums are excellent starting points. I love his later stuff, but that can get a little too crazy for somebody not very familiar with jazz.
Tier 1: A Love Supreme
Rizzo had not been placed in the first tier previously because of his low batting average, but the counting stats were certainly there. Now that his batting average is finally where it should be (.281), I can’t see any reason not to include him in this tier. There wasn’t too much of a doubt he could get to this point, especially with his previously low BABIP, so it’s good to see he was able to get that BA up in such a short amount of time.
Some of the other players outside of the first tier may have better counting stats than Goldschmidt and Cabrera, but you are not going to find many players more consistent than these guys. Goldschmidt gets the top ranking because he adds value with the stolen base as he has 11 right now.
Tier 2: Giant Steps
I should’ve had Wil Myers higher earlier, but his low BB% really concerned me. He has improved that as he is very close to 10% (9.6), and outside of batting average, outdoes Goldy in every fantasy category. Based on performance so far, he has been the number one fantasy first baseman. Again, though, this list accounts for what will happen and I still think Myers will do very well, but the HR/FB is a bit high to sustain (20.4%) so there will probably be some regression. Not enough to sell him, but enough to say by the end of the season he is not in the top tier.
Overall, this is an excellent tier, especially with Freeman and Votto performing at the levels we generally expect from them. All these guys can help you in 3-4 categories, and are weak in at least one. Some because of environment (Belt’s low HRs), some because of situation (Freeman’s low RBIs), or others because that is who they are (Santana’s low BA).
Tier 3: Lush Life
Adrian Gonzalez
Jose Abreu
Now we’re entering the tier where you only getting about 2-3 categories of strength which each player. This is also a pretty old group so age and health are definitely concerns for these guys. Adrian Gonzalez has not done much in fantasy with only 6 HRs, so he could be a good buy-low candidate. Then again, according to Jeff Sullivan, maybe the lack of power is real. The BA is strong as are the RBIs, and nothing really jumps out with his numbers that indicate that this lack of power was expected.
David Freese has played very well for the Pirates this season, and is seemingly outperforming his platoon partner (John Jaso) at first. Freese has value because of the super utility role he has, so he gets a nice amount of playing time. If Jaso continues to struggle, Pirates may consider calling up Josh Bell, which would take some 1B time away from Freese, though not totally stunting his playing time.
Tier 4: Ballads
Mark Teixeira
Matt Adams will probably see a lot more playing time now that Brandon Moss and Matt Carpenter are on the DL. Always a nice power source and could get some nice RBI opportunities, so he may be worth riding the wave especially if he gets hot.
I wasn’t a huge Loney fan when the Mets initially picked him up, and I wrote about his highs and lows here. Then the power has seemed to come back (.165 ISO), which now makes him a very intriguing player. Could be chalked to small sample size, but may also be because of Kevin Long, as noted on Mets Merized Online. Similarly to Daniel Murphy, Kevin Long has worked on Loney’s stance and approach to hit for more power. Seemingly, it has worked so far and has certainly worked for Murphy since the end of last season.
Mark Teixeira has had a tough season and based on what he has done this year, he should be in a lower tier. I can’t give up on his past years just yet and don’t want to miss out on that potential power surge, hence putting him in the fourth tier. I have nothing more substantial than that.
Tier 5: Blue Train
John Jaso
Byung-Ho Park
I’ve been surprised Reed has struggled the way he has so far. Didn’t think he’d set the world on fire like Tyler White did when he first came up, but thought he would hit better than .138. Out of this group, he has the most upside and would be the most likely guy I would invest in if these were my only options. Zimmerman has been a surprise in that he has been healthy and pretty brutal. Probably unfair I stuck him in the 5th tier and didn’t do the same to Teixeira, but I just don’t see much upside to Zimmerman anymore.
Disabled List (Tiers based upon return)
Matt Carpenter (Tier 2)
Brandon Moss (Tier 3)
Justin Bour (Tier 3)
Lucas Duda (Tier 3)
Steve Pearce (Tier 4)
Steven Matz was effective in all six of his starts in 2015, striking out at least six batters in four of those outings and limiting opposing offenses to three or fewer runs in all six of them. However, Matz didn’t show the world the excellent pitcher he would become until his penultimate start of 2015 on September 8 against the cross-town rival New York Yankees. That was the start when he threw his first major league slider, and it helped him limit the Yankees to one run over six innings and then strike out eight Cincinnati Reds six days later to close out his season.
That new pitch has become an important part of Matz’s repertoire in 2016. Over his first 11 starts this season, Matz threw his slider on 12.7 percent of his pitches, a similar ratio to his other off-speed pitches, a curveball (13.0 percent) and a changeup (11.1 percent). However, four starts ago, Matz cut back heavily on his slider usage, and prior to his pushed-back-a-day June 30 start, we likely learned why. Matz felt tightness in his elbow after his previous start, and an MRI revealed that he had developed bone spurs in his pitching elbow.
Michael Fulmer opened the season as the Tigers’ top prospect. After just 15.1 innings over three Triple-A starts, the Tigers couldn’t wait any longer, recalling him to debut at the end of April. And boy what a decision that was, as Fulmer now owns a sparkling 2.11 ERA after yesterday’s start in 13 games.
It’s your favorite time of the week, the moment we dive into the deep depths of the ominous free agent pool. Who will we find?! Will we discover hidden treasure?!
It took me until Saturday’s two-homer game to realize that OMG, Danny Espinosa has gone bonkers. It took him until April 29th to hit his first home run of the season. He then hit five in May, nine in June, and already has three in July. Danny Espinosa. He of the career high of 21 home runs set all the way back in 2011, his first full season, in more than double the plate appearances. He who we expected, nay, knew, was just a temporary placeholder for top prospect Trea Turner, who was surely going to be up with the big club early in the season and push Espinosa to a bench role.
Good morning! Sorry I missed you all this weekend, so let’s get caught up on what went down. I won’t cover every save this weekend, but just the situations worth monitoring moving forward since there were a lot of saves.
Over the years, I’ve made several attempts to adjust both hitter and pitcher performance statistics based on the quality of their opposition, but I’ve never settled on a method that I really like. Those failures will not stop me from trying. In this attempt, I’ve opted to use a plus/minus approach similar to those used in modern defensive statistics like Defensive Runs Saved. Here’s how it works in this case. Whenever a batter records a hit, I am giving him credit of 1.0 hits minus the batting average allowed this season by the pitcher he is facing. So if that hit comes against Clayton Kershaw, that’s 1.0 minus 0.185 or 0.815 hits over what that pitcher would be expected to allow in a typical at-bat. If instead that hit comes against Alfredo Simon, that’s 1.0 minus 0.348 or just 0.652 hits. Meanwhile, if the batter fails to get a hit, he receives 0.0 minus the pitcher’s batting average allowed, which would be -0.185 hits against Kershaw and -0.348 hits against Simon.
It’s that time of year again, American League starting pitcher tier update time! I still pay no attention to ERA, as it’s not a metric I use for evaluation and ranking pitchers for rest of season performance. Player movement between tiers will only occur when there’s a change in underlying skill, pitch mix, or velocity. Injured pitchers with non-arm injuries expected back relatively soon will remain in the tier they had been. Pitchers with arm-related injuries with up-in-the-air return dates have been removed. I just can’t speculate on that kind of stuff.
