About three and a half years ago, I shared the bestest starting pitcher xBB% formula yet. Since I mentioned to you recently that I have been on an xEquation binge, I updated that bestest xBB% one too, of course. But as I was working on it with an additional variable, I realized that Alex Chamberlain had literally done the exact same thing about two years ago. That same thing was adding the 3-0% metric from Baseball-Reference.com, which is the percentage of plate appearances in which a 3-0 count is seen. So rather than take credit for developing a better version of my original xBB% metric, I’m now simply updating the coefficients of Alex’s equation.

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After a flurry of recent moves, the Mariners ended Wednesday with starter Drew Smyly as a new member of their rotation. Smyly has long been one of my favorite unheralded pitchers in the game, primarily because of his strikeout and walk rates, which Dave Cameron explained had him on the short list of baseball’s best starters in recent seasons.

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Don’t you love it when a player’s name makes it super simple to create an absolutely brilliant title? I do! So yesterday, the Mariners continued their fantasy league moves by acquiring 27-year-old southpaw Drew Smyly. Up until 2016, Smyly enjoyed a fantastic beginning to his career, as he owned a 3.24 ERA/3.43 SIERA between the starting rotation and bullpen. But shoulder injuries hit in 2015 and he becaome afflicted with a severe bout of gopheritis during this past season. His ERA ballooned to 4.88 as his strikeout rate fell and he allowed the second highest fly ball rate in baseball among qualified pitchers. Now he moves to Seattle, where perhaps a change of scenery could do him some good. Will he benefit from the park switch? Let’s find out if such a possibility exists.

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In his ninth season, Colby Rasmus is set to join his fourth team, as he heads from one warm climate to another. But despite the fact he’ll be switching home parks, he’s still going to be playing in an orange juice box. On Monday, it was reported that he agreed to a one year contract with the Rays. Coming out of Houston, the knee-jerk reaction is that his fantasy potential, whatever there was left of it, is now kaput. But is that really true? Let’s bring on the park factors to find out what a move from playing half his games in Minute Maid Park (MM, Houston) to Tropicana Field (Tampa, errrr, St. Petersburg) may do to his performance.

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Three years ago, I shared with you an updated version of my xK% equation. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, along with his overall rate of strikes thrown. With an adjusted R-squared of 0.913, it explains a very high percentage of a pitcher’s strikeout rate. Its best use is early in the season when the plate appearance (the K% denominator) sample size is still small, as xK% uses total pitches as the denominator, so we can reach a reasonable sample size to analyze much more quickly.

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Yesterday, I discussed the fantasy relevant average fly ball and line drive exit velocity (EV) surgers, which overwhelming fueled a spike in HR/FB rate. Let’s now check in on the other side of the ledger — those hitters whose EV declined precipitously from 2015 to 2016.

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We officially have two seasons worth of Statcast data! Mind you, it’s not two full seasons, nor does it include every batted ball. But it’s still highly useful data. Although I continue to work on developing new equations with the data, we could all agree on one thing — harder hit balls are better. This is especially true when considering fly balls and line drives. We care far more about this bucket of batted balls than grounders because I have calculated a correlation of 0.769 between average fly ball and line drive exit velocity (EV) and HR/FB rate. So let’s find out which fantasy relevant hitters enjoyed EV surges from 2015 to 2016 and if those spikes resulted in HR/FB rate increases as well.

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As we close out 2016, we’re nearing that point in time where we look forward to what the future holds and then solidify commitments about changes we plan to make.  From a fantasy perspective, there are few things to look forward to more than the annual Ottoneu auction, so whether you’re anxiously anticipating your very first or are committed to improving upon your second or tenth, preparation is everything.  As in life, you rarely get the chance to make a second first impression, so recovering from a poor draft can be a challenge that plagues you all season long.  

I covered the mechanics (many of which have since been upgraded) of the Ottoneu auction last year here.  We’re still roughly one month from the keeper deadline (1/31), but today I want to offer some practical suggestions (especially for those new to the game) for how to begin preparing for your auction draft.  If you’re thinking about playing Ottoneu for the first time in 2017, leagues are forming daily here and here.

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Even though relief pitching dominated the narrative of both the 2015 and 2016 postseasons, and even though Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen made his contract look looked relatively tame inside of two weeks, I still couldn’t believe that Mark Melancon got a four-year, $62 million contract. Prior to that deal, the two biggest reliever contracts were four years and $50 million for Jonathan Papelbon and five years for $47 million for B.J. Ryan, two contracts their respective teams no doubt came to regret.

Melancon himself has been healthy and productive in his four seasons with the Pirates. He has thrown at least 71 innings every season with ERAs between 1.39 and 2.23 each year. However, he has achieved that success because of beneficial contextual factors and excellent command—he has walked between 1.0 and 1.6 batters per season in those four seasons—with good but not exceptional strikeout ability. He struck out 8.2 batters per nine in 2016 and has done the same for his career. That is only the 60th best rate among the 85 relievers who threw 60 or more innings last season, and Melancon’s 91.8 mph fastball does not hint at any untapped strikeout potential. Chapman and Jansen each struck out more than 13 batters per nine in 2016.

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So according to Brad Johnson’s end of season value compilation, Brandon Kintzler lost fantasy owners $4.20 in value. But that’s not really an accurate way of describing his contributions to fantasy owners this year. Glen Perkins opened the season as the Twins closer, but made it just a couple of weeks before going down with a shoulder injury. The Twins scrambled to find a replacement and eventually settled on Kintzler, who did a fine job. He earned his first save on June 8, and from that time, posted a 3.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with, while recording 17 saves. That stat package isn’t worth much in a 12-team mixed league, but likely a couple of bucks from the time he was actually rostered as a closer.

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