2016 Average Fly Ball & Line Drive Exit Velocity Decliners

Yesterday, I discussed the fantasy relevant average fly ball and line drive exit velocity (EV) surgers, which overwhelming fueled a spike in HR/FB rate. Let’s now check in on the other side of the ledger — those hitters whose EV declined precipitously from 2015 to 2016.

Just like the surger list, an EV decline was an excellent predictor of HR/FB rate direction. However, EV went 10 for 10 on the surgers, while EV went just 8 for 9 on the decliners. Still pretty darn good.

The first name on the list is both surprising and not so much. In 2015, Giancarlo Stanton was the Avg FB/LD EV league leader…by 2.8 mph. That’s pretty crazy. When you’re all by yourself at the top, there’s really nowhere to go but down. So Stanton fell back to Earth a bit in 2016, and finished just 10th in EV among hitters with at least 30 batted ball events. Unfortunately, his injury issues have gotten tiresome and it’s really hard to count on a full season from him at this point. It’s actually rather surprising that he still haven’t hit more than 37 home runs. He’ll need to pair good health with a 40%+ fly ball rate to get there.

Though it may appear that Lorenzo Cain was a bust after his breakout 2015, that really wasn’t totally the case. He simply missed a month with a hamstring injury, but he held onto most of his home run power gains, even though his overall power plummeted (both his doubles and triples rates slid hard). His HR/FB rate still remains below the league average and appears completely sustainable. So with the promise of double digit homers and steals assuming good health, and coming off what many may perceive as a disappointing year, he’ll likely be available at a nice discount in drafts this year.

Devon Travis was coming off major shoulder surgery, which meant he didn’t make his 2016 debut until late May. So you could forgive him for the drop in power. His 2015 power display in a small sample was probably over his head though, so while I might figure a mild rebound, I’d bet he finishes with a HR/FB rate closer to his 2016 mark than 2015. Still, he should be a solid middle infield contributor and perhaps a forgotten man with profit potential.

We don’t need another metric to validate that Michael Conforto disappointed this season and you see from the table that his 2015 EV was fantastic. It just served to fuel expectations this year, but alas, he failed to meet them. Now, he’s without a starting job as the Mets have too many outfielders and haven’t opened opened up a spot for him. It would be silly to give up on him already, so he’ll surely get another shot. He’ll need to get that strikeout rate back down, which shouldn’t be problematic considering his SwStk% was below the league average. I wasn’t as bullish as others to begin with, but I’m confident he’ll rebound.

Speaking of disappointing, Randal Grichuk is another with high expectations after an exciting 2015 performance over a relatively small sample. His home run power only regressed marginally though, as it was mostly his BABIP falling back from an unsustainable level. He’s definitely not a .365 BABIP guy, so figure more of the same in 2017, and given his poor walk rate, an extended slump could push him to the bench.

If you just looked at EV changes, you would never guess that Wil Myers just hit 28 homers, one more than he had hit in his entire career before the season began. Because his power surge smells fluky and you really have to wonder whether he’ll attempt more than 30 steals again, after attempting just 21 in his previous 987 plate appearances, he’s a serious bust candidate. That doesn’t necessarily mean a complete collapse, but generate a meaningful loss for his owners if they are paying for another 25/25 season.

There there, Mike Trout, it’s okay to take a step back every once in a while. Ya know, let the other guys feel like they might be the best at something in the game of baseball.

When a hitter enjoys a power surge, we first look at his age, and then several other factors to determine how sustainable that new power level is. I was one who believed that Brandon Crawford’s 2015 spike was mostly for real, but instead, he dropped right back to where he had been before that season. You just never know!

Say it ain’t so, Miguel Sano. That sentence will never get old for me. Sano’s appearance on the list is Stantonian, as he was near the top and there wasn’t anywhere else to go. Though he dealt with various injuries, he essentially performed just as one should have expected — lots of power and lots of strikeouts. Obviously, he wasn’t going to BABIP .396 again or anywhere close, so you had to figure his batting average was at risk of dropping like a rock. He still have Chris Davis upside though, but I like him infinitely more in OBP leagues.