Falling into a rut with your decisions can be deadly as the fantasy season comes to a close, particularly with pitchers and when you choose to start them. Depending on the starter and the team they’re facing, as well as your own categorical needs, matchups that might have been must-starts in July could sit in a gray area in September.

With that in mind, we’re going to take a look at starting pitchers who were in the top-50 for the first half but have fallen out since the break. And instead of just looking at drops in just fantasy categories, we’ll use total value and see where the drops have come and whether you should trust them as we come down the final championship stretch.

A few notes about calculated values:

• As you can’t use date ranges with our auction calculator, I calculated my own values using a standard z-score methodology. One difference is that values were made using only starting pitchers, scored using wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.
• In addition to ERA and WHIP, I’ve also included “xERA” and “xWHIP” but these are not expected values, rather they are the ratios weighted to the number of innings pitched.  A 3.50 ERA over 200 IP is better than a 3.50 ERA over 100 IP and a 2.25 ERA over 120 IP is better than a 2.00 ERA over 90 IP. Basically, xERA and xWHIP put these values on the same scale, allowing us to judge ratios on a 1-to-1 basis, regardless of innings pitched.

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As we come down the fantasy stretch, every matchup you choose starts to matter that much more. Whether it’s knowing who to stream or which stalwart in your rotation should maybe sit one out, it’s best to bring as much recent information to your process as possible.

We already looked at team performances vs RHP, so let’s crossover and look at how teams are faring versus lefthanders, looking at the numbers heading into last night’s action. But first, a quick caveat. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in June, we took a look at which teams to attack with streaming options, as well as who to avoid, according to pitcher handedness. With a scant five weeks remaining in the season (and playoffs starting soon for H2H leagues), knowing which teams to exploit (and which beartraps to step around) becomes even more paramount.

But not just for streaming options, as fantasy players in tight races might need to make some tough decisions on who to start down the stretch. Because when time is running out, every start counts, and pitchers who were “start no matter what” prior, might slide into a more nebulous zone as you try to bring home gold.

You may have spent the previous five months cruising but no one wants to be this guy in September:

He … could … go … all … the … way … oh no. pic.twitter.com/nFucS4tvSG

— MLB (@MLB) August 24, 2021

With that in mind, let’s take a fresh look at the teams you should be going out of your way to face, as well as those teams who’ve improved enough in the second half to make you take a pause.

Damn the torpedoes, full stream ahead. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re over halfway through the season and have entered the prime trading season, with many deadlines coming at the end of July. This means teams that are contending but not cruising, will likely need to make some moves to address their deficiencies by (hopefully) moving their surpluses.

Last time out, we took a look at some starting pitchers who’ve gotten a majority of their value from ERAs that might not be sustainable. Now let’s switch over to the hitters and look at some players whose value could take a hit if they see their batting average swoon in the second half.

Just like with the pitchers, this isn’t about saying that Player X will be worse at baseball in the second half. This is about identifying who has put most of their eggs in one basket and whether you need to bake in some regression for the rest of the way. Whether it’s to make a trade or just adjust your categorical expectations, the more you know, the better you can prepare. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re over halfway through the season and have entered the prime trading season, with many deadlines coming at the end of July. Which means teams that are contending but not cruising, will likely need to make some moves to address their deficiencies by (hopefully) moving their surpluses.

Whether you’re one of the lucky ones who are stacked on pitching and need to trade for an impact bat, or someone running the opposite, you need to know who to trade, who to fade, and who to trade for. Because is there really anything worse than trading away someone who blows up, or trading for someone who blows up your team? It’s really just the worst.

With that in mind, let’s look at starting pitchers who have significant differences between their ERA and their ERA evaluators. This way we can see who could be the most vulnerable to a rising ERA and whether their overall value could take the hit. This isn’t necessarily about saying that Player X is going to be worse at baseball in the second half, it’s about baking in regression to your expectations for the rest of the year. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

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Is there really anything worse than having to chase saves? Sure, chasing steals isn’t fun either but given that saves can often be as much about opportunity as talent, spending FAAB to play a weekly carnival game of Whack-a-Closer is extra annoying. So, let’s take a break from the save race and talk about some non-closing (NC) relievers that can return overall value even if they’re not going to supply much of the glamour stat that everyone desires.

Using NC relievers isn’t going to be for everyone and a lot of that will depend on your current team construction and categorical goals. For example, if your pitching scores are fine with ratios but lacking in the counting (wins, strikeouts, saves) stats, you’re probably going to be better served by using lesser starters, more often. Or, maybe you’re like me and due to poor performances and/or injuries have had to punt ratios in favor of throwing any (and every) starter against the wall.

However, some lucky ducks are tracking pretty with their counting stats but maybe need some ratio help. Or perhaps you’re ahead of the game enough to shine up your ratios but not so much ahead that you can afford to do so while letting your attention to wins and strikeouts lapse. For those traveling this middle-ish path, rotating (or holding) NC relievers can offer the best of both worlds. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Read the rest of this entry »

Before the gates coming crashing down upon my head, let’s make things crystal from jump street. I’m not a mathematician and I’m certainly not a statistician. I don’t even pretend to be one in my Twitter bio. Me? I’m just a fantasy hack with a penchant for Ockham.

Do you know who doesn’t have said penchant? Major League Baseball and Commissioner Rob Manfred. If they did, they wouldn’t have detailed how enforcement will work in regards to pitchers using grip enhancers in a memo with a Florida-sized sea of gray areas. If they were being honest about their intentions and goals, the solution would be simple (and obvious). Read the rest of this entry »