We’re over halfway through the season and have entered the prime trading season, with many deadlines coming at the end of July. Which means teams that are contending but not cruising, will likely need to make some moves to address their deficiencies by (hopefully) moving their surpluses.

Whether you’re one of the lucky ones who are stacked on pitching and need to trade for an impact bat, or someone running the opposite, you need to know who to trade, who to fade, and who to trade for. Because is there really anything worse than trading away someone who blows up, or trading for someone who blows up your team? It’s really just the worst.

With that in mind, let’s look at starting pitchers who have significant differences between their ERA and their ERA evaluators. This way we can see who could be the most vulnerable to a rising ERA and whether their overall value could take the hit. This isn’t necessarily about saying that Player X is going to be worse at baseball in the second half, it’s about baking in regression to your expectations for the rest of the year. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Read the rest of this entry »

Is there really anything worse than having to chase saves? Sure, chasing steals isn’t fun either but given that saves can often be as much about opportunity as talent, spending FAAB to play a weekly carnival game of Whack-a-Closer is extra annoying. So, let’s take a break from the save race and talk about some non-closing (NC) relievers that can return overall value even if they’re not going to supply much of the glamour stat that everyone desires.

Using NC relievers isn’t going to be for everyone and a lot of that will depend on your current team construction and categorical goals. For example, if your pitching scores are fine with ratios but lacking in the counting (wins, strikeouts, saves) stats, you’re probably going to be better served by using lesser starters, more often. Or, maybe you’re like me and due to poor performances and/or injuries have had to punt ratios in favor of throwing any (and every) starter against the wall.

However, some lucky ducks are tracking pretty with their counting stats but maybe need some ratio help. Or perhaps you’re ahead of the game enough to shine up your ratios but not so much ahead that you can afford to do so while letting your attention to wins and strikeouts lapse. For those traveling this middle-ish path, rotating (or holding) NC relievers can offer the best of both worlds. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Read the rest of this entry »

Before the gates coming crashing down upon my head, let’s make things crystal from jump street. I’m not a mathematician and I’m certainly not a statistician. I don’t even pretend to be one in my Twitter bio. Me? I’m just a fantasy hack with a penchant for Ockham.

Do you know who doesn’t have said penchant? Major League Baseball and Commissioner Rob Manfred. If they did, they wouldn’t have detailed how enforcement will work in regards to pitchers using grip enhancers in a memo with a Florida-sized sea of gray areas. If they were being honest about their intentions and goals, the solution would be simple (and obvious). Read the rest of this entry »

Last time out we took a look at which teams you should attack when going fishing for streams, targeting favorable splits, and identifying any offenses carrying under-the-radar weaknesses. But this time we travel to the mirror dimension, looking for the teams that should make your oh-no-no list when looking for streams.

Remember, just because a team is bad, in general, doesn’t mean they’re necessarily bad in every specificity. Bad teams can look good in some spots, and good teams can have exploitable weaknesses.

If you don’t believe me, just ask the Rays, who strike out against right-handers at comparable rates to the Tigers and Rangers. Or the Orioles, who are last in run value (per 100 pitches) versus RHP but are the best in baseball versus LHP. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s talk about the hard stuff. Fastballs, that is. Because what was true 50 years ago, is still true today. But the splendid one put it best:

“You have to hit the fastball to play in the big leagues.”

– Ted Williams

If you want to have any chance against the whiffle ball cheese currently being thrown by the modern game’s spin-rate savants, you’ll first have to deal with the unprecedented amount of fire in the velocity game. Simply put, if you can’t smoke the heaters, good luck with all of the rest.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the batters having the most success against four-seamers and sinkers in 2021, and what it might mean for the rest of the season. Read the rest of this entry »