Archive for Head to Head

Fantasy Baseball Existentialism: Chase Utley Still the Man

I’m a San Francisco Giants fan and our* starting second baseman will probably never play baseball again. His replacement Brandon Hicks is hitting just .182/.297/.359. Despite Hicks’ stellar work in the field (+4 DRS) and occasional dinger production, we need a new second baseman if we’re going to set the modern record for wins in a single season.

So I went on over to McCovey Chronicles which is like the New York Times for me given that I don’t know what’s going on in the world beyond Grant Brisbee’s opining on the Giants. Brisbee had a well-reasoned column on the Chase Utley trade rumors. I thought Utley had faded off into obscurity with Marco Scutaro. Instead, it turns out Utley has returned from nagging leg injuries to re-take his rightful position as one of the game’s best at the keystone. Who knew? If the Phillies have a Hall-of-Fame second baseman at the top of the league at his position in offensive production, why have they been so awful? Please let me know in the comments.

Anyway, the point here is that Chase Utley is still the man, apparently. He leads all second baseman in wOBA, and he’s second in WAR.

Brisbee’s article had a link to an in-depth Philadelphia Magazine piece on Utley. The article made me completely fall in love with the guy, and that wasn’t just because of the hot picture which is now my desktop background. The tight-fitting white shirt, the gun show, the intense look off into the distance, the soul patch, the wavy hair—are we underrating how handsome Chase Utley is?

Utley is not just a Hall-of-Fame player. He’s also a leader with a plus-plus clubhouse presence, an incredibly hard-worker, and a loving husband and father. Chase, if you’re reading this, with Father’s Day coming up, perhaps you’d like to adopt me? Please let me know in the comments.

After reading about the real Chase, I was pretty devastated I hadn’t drafted him in fantasy. I figured the health risk was too steep given his age (36 in December) and injury history (hasn’t been fully healthy since 2009). Now I’m stuck with underachieving early-round picks Buster Posey and Evan Longoria who can’t lead in my fantasy clubhouse until they start producing, which, like, any day now fellas! I’m thinking of proposing a blockbuster trade to acquire Utley so I can move Matt Carpenter to third base and spark the ballclub. But first, I consulted my fantasy coach who not only doesn’t want Utley on our Giants, but who also thinks Utley is an overrated fantasy player. Here’s a transcript of our chat:

Me: I’m going to write about Chase Utley. Any fantasy thoughts?

Fantasy Coach: I actually have no fantasy thoughts on Utley. I’ve never even thought about getting him on my team. I’ve never liked him; always thought he was overrated. I seriously think Rickie Weeks may be relevant once he’s traded to the Giants, A’s, or Yankees. The concern would be the ground-ball percentage (15th highest). He’s hitting line drives (20.3 percent), which is what made him successful before, but that’s not really sustainable and his ground-ball percentage is super high which doesn’t bode well for a return to big-time power.

Me: Utley leads all second basemen in wOBA.

Fantasy Coach: Cano, Kipnis, Dozier, Kinsler, Altuve, and Pedroia are better fantasy players. I can think of seven or eight second basemen I’d rather have than Utley.

Me: Ouch. Well, he’s third in wOBA since the start of last year, so it’s not like his defense—which doesn’t count in fantasy—is carrying his value. And there’s no park adjustment in fantasy, so offensive production only, he’s at the top.

Fantasy Coach: Right, but that’s not the only calculus in fantasy. Matt Carpenter is also good at hitting baseballs, but he doesn’t hit home runs or steal bases, so he’s a ghost-runner on first a bunch of times.

Me: Which is why we need a sabermetric revolution with fantasy stats.

Chase Utley might not be the most valuable fantasy second baseman at this stage of his career because he doesn’t steal bases or dig the long ball anymore, but I doubt he’ll mention that in his Hall-of-Fame speech. Also, on my fantasy Giants team I spend most of the day thinking about, I just traded Kyle Crick for him. Get on it, Sabey-Sabes; we need the man.

*I’m basically on the team


The Art Of Being Almost Ready, Vol. III – Stephen Piscotty Edition

I guess this is a full-blown series now, and why not? The theme kind of fascinates me. In the two previous entries, I’ve covered Jimmy Nelson and Domingo Santana, and today it’s Stephen Piscotty’s turn. I go to a whole lot of Triple-A games, and those games are packed with guys who are almost — but not quite — ready for the majors. In Nelson’s case, I suggested that an inconsistent release point could pose problems, while Santana needs to rein in his over-aggressive approach.

These are both players that I like a great deal as prospects, but sometimes it’s simply more interesting to think about what’s keeping a guy in the minors, rather than dreaming about his ceiling. And this comes from someone who is admittedly overly forgiving at times; I can find something to like about a crappy college first baseman, for example. I also typically enjoy Nicolas Cage movies, so it’s probably a good idea for me to focus a bit more on the negatives every once in awhile.

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Bullpen Report: June 12, 2014

Another day, another save for 39-year-old Koji Uehara of the Boston Red Sox. He fanned one and induced two groundouts to seal his 14th save of the season on 14 pitches. Uehara has now converted 30 consecutive save opportunities dating back to July 6th of last season. Koji owns a 0.63 ERA (1.69 FIP) and a ~33% K-BB% in 27.2 innings of work in ‘14. Something else that caught my eye while cruising Uehara’s player page is his SwStr% over the past three seasons: 18.9%, 18.5% and 18.5%. Have to love the consistency. With my tail between my legs, I’ll have to admit I was totally wrong on this guy heading into this year. I anticipated Father Time creeping up on the old man, but he’s apparently nowhere in sight. Sorry for doubting you, Koji.
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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 06/12/2014

Episode 128

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss, by request, Marcell Ozuna; Alex Wood; Danny Duffy; Mookie Betts; Joc Pederson; Jay Bruce; George Springer; Marco Estrada; and Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer and the Colorado Rockies’ outfield. Other topics of interest covered: Justin Verlander, the Seattle Mariners’ shuffled roster that now includes Jesus Montero is up, Adam Wainwright, Wilson Ramos and Francisco Liriano.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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MASH Report (6/12/14)

The data is a little thin today. My RSS reader is down/under attack so I had to go old school and check as many websites as I could manually.

Carlos Gonzalez had a “fatty mass with tentacles” or a “Cheeto” or a “shrimp” removed from his hand. Which ever  it was, it is probably good it is no longer in his hand.

• After scoring a 158 the last time I ran my PAIN report, Francisco Liriano now heads to the DL with an oblique stain. These core injuries for pitchers usually take about two months to heal.

• The Rangers have just been snake bitten with injuries. Tanner Scheppers is back on the DL and Jim Adduci re-broke his finger on a minor league rehab assignment. Grantland’s Jonah Keri looked in detail at the Rangers struggles to stay healthy.

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Joe Mauer, sans Dry Scalp, in Midst of Dry Spell

Some fantasy pundits – including a few at RotoGraphs – and owners were optimistic about the fortunes of Joe Mauer entering this season, in large part because the Minnesota Twins were moving him away from catcher permanently. Although his brand of statistical output is mediocre for a first baseman, the catcher eligibility he retains could make him one of the more valuable rotisserie commodities in this transition year.

Mauer’s apologists – such as yours truly – were confident of his chance to avoid injury as long as he manned a less stressful position. His rough first two-plus months of the 2014 campaign seem to have done little to tarnish the RotoGraphs group’s and my hopes, though.

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The Boys of Summer

When a player has a poor start to the season, it can be very difficult to properly rate him in fantasy. Even when he starts to play to his previously established career standards, that one bad month can drag down his season totals for the rest of the year. While it is important to not overrate the most recent month’s production in lieu of the bad month in April, when that recent month matches a player’s track record, it is pretty clear which is the anomaly. Here are a handful of players who suffered from poor starts this season and have heated up with the weather.

 

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RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitcher

Starting pitching is so tough to evaluate. First, you get massive amounts of information every five days, but each of those bursts of information is tied to a single park or team and is so context dependent. Second, there are only five starting slots, and if you’re the sixth-best starting pitcher on your team, you’re outta luck.

That last part is really the reason for the delay on these rankings. Tony Cingrani was a starting pitcher yesterday and we were about to pub the rankings — and then news came out that Mat Latos would take his slot this week. Now Cingrani is suddenly among the prospects — who are impossible to project given their uncertain role — and waiting for Alfredo Simon to pumpkin or Latos to hurt again. That’s not great for his ranking.

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Mixed Waiver Wire: Rougned Odor, Danny Espinosa

I must have a thing for second. I finished there in Mixed Tout Wars in both 2011 and 2012. I was runner-up in AL LABR in 2013. I placed there on multiple occasions in my dynasty football league – although I won that once, barely. More often than not, I get the girl because, if she feels like lovin’ me, if she gets the notion … you guessed it. I just haven’t mustered what it takes to seal the deal, on a number of occasions. Which seems odd, because I like mustard.

I don’t have a thing for second basemen, though. It’s just a coincidence that both of my recs this week play that position. I’m not trying to horn in on another of Scott Strandberg’s territoriesagain. But damn if it ain’t the second time I done so.

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Kevin Kiermaier & Brad Snyder: Deep League Wire

Injuries are a deep leaguer’s best friend…as long as those injuries don’t occur to your own players of course. As has become par for the course here at the deep league waiver wire, these two recommendations are the latest pair of beneficiaries of the recently disabled.

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