RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitcher
Starting pitching is so tough to evaluate. First, you get massive amounts of information every five days, but each of those bursts of information is tied to a single park or team and is so context dependent. Second, there are only five starting slots, and if you’re the sixth-best starting pitcher on your team, you’re outta luck.
That last part is really the reason for the delay on these rankings. Tony Cingrani was a starting pitcher yesterday and we were about to pub the rankings — and then news came out that Mat Latos would take his slot this week. Now Cingrani is suddenly among the prospects — who are impossible to project given their uncertain role — and waiting for Alfredo Simon to pumpkin or Latos to hurt again. That’s not great for his ranking.
At some point you have to pull the plug on all the emails and put the rankings out. There’s going to be news tomorrow about an injury, and you’ll have to move that pitcher down mentally in your head.
And, man, is this a volatile list or what. Danny Salazar dropped 106 spots in the rankings! Trevor Cahill might get his spot back, but in the meantime he dropped 55 places in the rankings! Clay Buchholz is down 64! The biggest previously-ranked risers were Johnny Cueto (34), Corey Kluber (38), Scott Kazmir (35), Garret Richards (53), and Yordano Ventura (37), all guys I own everywhere. Wait, no, I was just pointing out your hot young studs. Wait, no, that sounds bad too.
Pitchers — enjoy them like I do. (Damn.)
Again, this is for rest of season 5×5 roto, and though Jeff Zimmerman mostly uses the rest of season projections, it’s not just a computer ranking. We’ve left off the color coding in favor of a simple up or down arrow — those arrows are only next to big movers from their preseason position. The table is designed to be sortable in case you prefer one of the rankings.
| RG | Name | Jeff | Zach | Mike | Eno |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Felix Hernandez | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Adam Wainwright | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Max Scherzer | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| 6 | Chris Sale | 7 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
7![]() |
Masahiro Tanaka | 12 | 4 | 8 | 5 |
| 8 | Stephen Strasburg | 8 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Madison Bumgarner | 5 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | Zack Greinke | 10 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | David Price | 6 | 14 | 10 | 15 |
12![]() |
Anibal Sanchez | 15 | 12 | 16 | 13 |
13![]() |
Johnny Cueto | 17 | 11 | 28 | 11 |
| 14 | Cole Hamels | 13 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
15![]() |
Julio Teheran | 20 | 13 | 38 | 12 |
16![]() |
Corey Kluber | 33 | 18 | 12 | 22 |
17![]() |
Jon Lester | 14 | 17 | 39 | 16 |
18![]() |
Michael Wacha | 27 | 19 | 25 | 18 |
19![]() |
Hisashi Iwakuma | 26 | 15 | 23 | 26 |
| 20 | Jordan Zimmermann | 19 | 41 | 15 | 17 |
| 21 | James Shields | 21 | 29 | 20 | 27 |
| 22 | Alex Cobb | 35 | 16 | 22 | 25 |
| 23 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 32 | 20 | 27 | 19 |
| 24 | Jeff Samardzija | 23 | 21 | 32 | 23 |
25![]() |
Justin Verlander | 11 | 57 | 14 | 24 |
26![]() |
Cliff Lee | 16 | 66 | 13 | 14 |
| 27 | Sonny Gray | 37 | 27 | 26 | 21 |
| 28 | Jered Weaver | 28 | 31 | 19 | 34 |
| 29 | Doug Fister | 24 | 24 | 34 | 30 |
| 30 | Gio Gonzalez | 42 | 25 | 18 | 32 |
31![]() |
Ian Kennedy | 18 | 36 | 42 | 29 |
| 32 | Mike Minor | 30 | 23 | 44 | 33 |
33![]() |
Scott Kazmir | 45 | 28 | 24 | 35 |
34![]() |
C.J. Wilson | 25 | 37 | 35 | 39 |
| 35 | Homer Bailey | 34 | 56 | 17 | 31 |
36![]() |
John Lackey | 29 | 33 | 41 | 42 |
37![]() |
Matt Cain | 40 | 40 | 31 | 40 |
| 38 | Andrew Cashner | 38 | 38 | 47 | 36 |
| 39 | Gerrit Cole | 53 | 34 | 50 | 28 |
40![]() |
Ervin Santana | 31 | 64 | 36 | 37 |
| 41 | Shelby Miller | 39 | 68 | 43 | 41 |
| 42 | Hiroki Kuroda | 44 | 74 | 29 | 47 |
| 43 | Dan Haren | 47 | 44 | 52 | 51 |
| 44 | Lance Lynn | 36 | 77 | 33 | 49 |
| 45 | Tim Hudson | 54 | 45 | 53 | 43 |
46![]() |
Kyle Lohse | 60 | 30 | 56 | 53 |
47![]() |
Mat Latos | 101 | 17 | 59 | 41 |
48![]() |
Dallas Keuchel | 105 | 26 | 51 | 38 |
49![]() |
Nathan Eovaldi | 86 | 35 | 55 | 48 |
50![]() |
Zack Wheeler | 48 | 55 | 71 | 52 |
| 51 | Marco Estrada | 80 | 43 | 46 | 59 |
52![]() |
Chris Archer | 52 | 51 | 72 | 54 |
53![]() |
Jaime Garcia | 66 | 48 | 48 | 68 |
| 54 | Francisco Liriano | 22 | 92 | 49 | 72 |
| 55 | Rick Porcello | 68 | 52 | 58 | 57 |
56![]() |
Jesse Chavez | 81 | 32 | 82 | 45 |
| 57 | Matt Garza | 62 | 69 | 40 | 71 |
| 58 | Justin Masterson | 41 | 78 | 54 | 70 |
59![]() |
Tyson Ross | 76 | 47 | 60 | 61 |
60![]() |
Garrett Richards | 79 | 53 | 68 | 44 |
61![]() |
R.A. Dickey | 51 | 84 | 30 | 81 |
| 62 | Jose Quintana | 61 | 65 | 65 | 55 |
| 63 | Tim Lincecum | 43 | 80 | 45 | 83 |
64![]() |
Phil Hughes | 71 | 49 | 74 | 58 |
65![]() |
Drew Hutchison | 97 | 42 | 67 | 50 |
66![]() |
Yordano Ventura | 85 | 59 | 75 | 46 |
67![]() |
Josh Beckett | 95 | 76 | 37 | 62 |
68![]() |
Jason Hammel | 73 | 61 | 63 | 74 |
| 69 | Jon Niese | 75 | 54 | 73 | 76 |
| 70 | Drew Smyly | 72 | 91 | 66 | 60 |
71![]() |
Tyler Skaggs | 58 | 94 | 70 | 69 |
72![]() |
A.J. Burnett | 57 | 85 | 79 | 73 |
73![]() |
Gavin Floyd | 87 | 62 | 61 | 86 |
| 74 | Yovani Gallardo | 59 | 86 | 59 | 93 |
| 75 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 49 | 79 | 84 | 95 |
76![]() |
Collin McHugh | 135 | 39 | 78 | 56 |
77![]() |
Wily Peralta | 116 | 50 | 81 | 65 |
78![]() |
Tommy Milone | 63 | 88 | 87 | 84 |
79![]() |
Tanner Roark | 84 | 71 | 77 | 91 |
80![]() |
Aaron Harang | 83 | 58 | 94 | 89 |
81![]() |
Roenis Elias | 103 | 60 | 95 | 67 |
| 82 | Mike Leake | 74 | 63 | 121 | 75 |
| 83 | Travis Wood | 67 | 87 | 105 | 77 |
| 84 | Wade Miley | 55 | 97 | 88 | 99 |
| 85 | Mark Buehrle | 92 | 46 | 113 | 90 |
| 86 | Bartolo Colon | 56 | 73 | 103 | 111 |
87![]() |
Marcus Stroman | 89 | 89 | 76 | 98 |
| 88 | Wei-Yin Chen | 64 | 83 | 89 | 117 |
89![]() |
Drew Pomeranz | 99 | 95 | 97 | 63 |
| 90 | Brandon McCarthy | 77 | 135 | 57 | 87 |
91![]() |
Tony Cingrani | 46 | 126 | 101 | 94 |
| 92 | Jason Vargas | 98 | 82 | 110 | 78 |
93![]() |
Jake Peavy | 69 | 147 | 62 | 92 |
94![]() |
Trevor Bauer | 151 | 72 | 69 | 79 |
| 95 | Taijuan Walker | 90 | 70 | 119 | 101 |
96![]() |
Chris Tillman | 78 | 102 | 85 | 118 |
97![]() |
CC Sabathia | 50 | 111 | 115 | 109 |
| 98 | Henderson Alvarez | 104 | 75 | 109 | 104 |
| 99 | Dillon Gee | 132 | 131 | 64 | 66 |
| 100 | Charlie Morton | 100 | 108 | 80 | 110 |
101![]() |
Ryan Vogelsong | 115 | 67 | 96 | 122 |
| 102 | Derek Holland | 82 | 110 | 128 | 88 |
103![]() |
Jake Odorizzi | 94 | 119 | 92 | 106 |
| 104 | Kevin Gausman | 118 | 113 | 91 | 97 |
105![]() |
Chase Whitley | 151 | 114 | 90 | 64 |
| 106 | Miguel Gonzalez | 96 | 99 | 106 | 127 |
| 107 | Bud Norris | 112 | 98 | 107 | 113 |
| 108 | Edwin Jackson | 70 | 117 | 118 | 126 |
109![]() |
Chase Anderson | 145 | 106 | 100 | 80 |
110![]() |
Jorge de la Rosa | 125 | 104 | 83 | 120 |
111![]() |
Josh Tomlin | 120 | 100 | 111 | 114 |
112![]() |
Danny Duffy | 133 | 96 | 133 | 85 |
| 113 | Jenrry Mejia | 65 | 151 | 151 | 96 |
114![]() |
Rubby de la Rosa | 151 | 127 | 93 | 103 |
115![]() |
Jake Arrieta | 108 | 116 | 138 | 112 |
116![]() |
Ricky Nolasco | 102 | 144 | 86 | 143 |
| 117 | Bronson Arroyo | 109 | 123 | 99 | 144 |
118![]() |
Josh Collmenter | 93 | 109 | 151 | 125 |
119![]() |
David Phelps | 140 | 81 | 131 | 132 |
120![]() |
Andrew Heaney | 123 | 105 | 151 | 107 |
| 121 | James Paxton | 147 | 146 | 112 | 82 |
122![]() |
Edinson Volquez | 128 | 122 | 116 | 124 |
123![]() |
Alex Meyer | 91 | 150 | 151 | 100 |
| 124 | Felix Doubront | 114 | 129 | 122 | 128 |
125![]() |
Jacob deGrom | 149 | 134 | 102 | 108 |
126![]() |
Robbie Erlin | 107 | 137 | 151 | 105 |
127![]() |
Rafael Montero | 106 | 125 | 151 | 121 |
128![]() |
Alfredo Simon | 131 | 93 | 134 | 146 |
129![]() |
Michael Pineda | 146 | 138 | 104 | 116 |
130![]() |
Danny Salazar | 101 | 151 | 151 | 102 |
| 131 | Erik Bedard | 138 | 139 | 98 | 131 |
| 132 | Yusmeiro Petit | 88 | 151 | 151 | 119 |
| 133 | Kyle Kendrick | 141 | 103 | 123 | 151 |
| 134 | Chris Young | 151 | 107 | 125 | 137 |
| 135 | Scott Feldman | 129 | 133 | 108 | 150 |
| 136 | Clay Buchholz | 126 | 151 | 114 | 130 |
| 137 | Zach McAllister | 121 | 132 | 120 | 149 |
| 138 | Eric Stults | 119 | 151 | 126 | 129 |
| 139 | Jordan Lyles | 151 | 90 | 151 | 135 |
| 140 | Colby Lewis | 124 | 142 | 139 | 123 |
| 141 | Juan Nicasio | 136 | 101 | 140 | 151 |
142![]() |
Jhoulys Chacin | 130 | 124 | 130 | 151 |
| 143 | Kyle Gibson | 151 | 136 | 135 | 115 |
| 144 | Jarred Cosart | 151 | 115 | 137 | 134 |
| 145 | Brandon Workman | 142 | 120 | 151 | 133 |
| 146 | Jeff Locke | 111 | 151 | 136 | 151 |
| 147 | Bruce Chen | 127 | 151 | 127 | 151 |
148![]() |
Trevor Cahill | 110 | 151 | 151 | 145 |
| 149 | Roberto Hernandez | 139 | 151 | 117 | 151 |
| 150 | Tom Koehler | 151 | 112 | 144 | 151 |
| 151 | Jeremy Guthrie | 151 | 118 | 141 | 151 |
| 152 | Noah Syndergaard | 151 | 121 | 151 | 139 |
| 153 | J.A. Happ | 137 | 151 | 129 | 151 |
| 154 | Randy Wolf | 134 | 140 | 151 | 151 |
| 155 | Jimmy Nelson | 151 | 141 | 151 | 136 |
| 156 | Nicholas Martinez | 151 | 130 | 151 | 147 |
157![]() |
Brett Anderson | 150 | 128 | 151 | 151 |
| 158 | Archie Bradley | 151 | 149 | 151 | 141 |
Ranked by one analyst: John Danks, Hector Santiago, Brad Peacock, Kevin Correia, Franklin Morales, Carlos Villanueva, Carlos Carrasco, Tim Stauffer, Matt Shoemaker, Jonathan Gray, Matt Wisler, Joe Kelly, Brandon Cumpton, T.J. House, Tyler Chatwood, Eddie Butler, and Allen Webster.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.


Mike has Lee-13, Verlander-14,Gio -18,Dickey-30 and Tehran-38? What 5 cats is he using?
Rest of season rankings. What a pitcher’s current ERA is means nothing to me when projecting his ERA going forward. I focus on the underlying skills and career history.
It seems odd to me that you think Dickey will perform better than Teheran, though. I get that Teheran’s ERA should probably go up, but it doesn’t seem like Dickey has many advantages over Teheran at this point in their respective careers. What did I miss? (not trying to be snarky here, just trying to learn as much as possible from you guys).
That just seems in large part stupid. Doesn’t his past ERA this season make up some of his career history and isn’t it a glimpse of his current skill set to some degree? And please, save the small sample size argument.
I wouldn’t say it was stupid (he had an outstanding run for a couple years, after all), but it’s hard to ignore that Teheran’s been fantastic ever since the end of April ’13. He’s still a young, developing pitcher, and has the pedigree to support the steps forward he’s taken since ’12. I mean, Dickey’s rise to success was so striking because of it’s improbability. He had a long history as a mediocre pitcher before riding a circus pitch to an incredible three-year run… and now he’s on the verge of hitting 40 and has seen his control worsen for the 2nd straight year. I just don’t get it. The blossoming 23-yr old former top-prospect seems like the obvious pick here.
Respectfully, I don’t really see the appeal of Dickey. He’s basically been a mediocre fantasy pitcher since arriving in Toronto; his past success came in a very different run scoring environment. (And now he’s 39, too.) He has a 4.20 ERA and 4.55 FIP so far in 2014, after posting a 4.21 ERA and 4.58 FIP last year. I think that’s just the reality of what he is in the AL East.
Agreed, Ace.
Teheran has been good, but he has just over 300 career innings with roughly a 3.00 ERA but with a league-average FIP (3.79) and xFIP (3.88). His strikeout rate is just league average, which isn’t a problem in itself, but without the strikeouts to fall back on, you’re really relying on him to continue to outpace his peripherals by a significant margin in order for him to be a top-15-20 pitcher the rest of the season.
Last point – among qualified pitchers, Teheran ranks 45th in FIP, 59th in xFIP, 47th in SIERA, and 41st in K%. Don’t think it’s that crazy to rank him in the 30s.
Oh yea, Matthew, I’m not saying Teheran’s placement is crazy, and I didn’t mean to pick on Mike, just didn’t see how he’d be ranked lower than Dickey. Honestly, Mike seems to be right 9/10 times (he’s steered my fantasy team in the right direction many times), so that’s really the only reason I wanted to ask about his thoughts on Dickey over Teheran. I might not have thought much about it if it was anyone else.
But, I mean Dickey had over 400 ‘meh’ innings before he went on a tear with the Mets, no? If the degradation in control of his knuckler continues the trend of the past year and half, there’s lots and lots of data to suggest he doesn’t have the stuff to make up for it. Just wondering what it was that made him think he’d go back to producing like he did in 2012.
I might try and trade Teheran for Dickey and change if there’s something there.
Zach’s J Zimmermann ranking is quite an outlier. What gives?
And Cliff Lee
Lee is injury related.
And Zimm?
where is Jaime Garcia?
i find him. wow! his rank is very high!
A. Wood looks to join the rotation again around 6/28. From that time through ROS who do you drop out of Gio (assume he’s healthy), Kennedy or Wood?
Someone else. That’s a terrible answer, but… make a two for one to open up a spot? They should all be owned.
Wood for Wood
Surprised no one ranked Casey Kelley.
Eno much higher than the rest on Chase Whitley. Reasons?
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/degrom-whitley-anderson-checking-on-the-changes/
Got offered Hector Rondon for Alex Wood in a keeper league. My team is competitive but all I have for reliable saves is Kimbrel. Do I do it? I have some depth at SP.
In a keeper, I’d prefer to have Wood.
I always prefer to have Wood.
Interesting call, Eno- Teheran over David Price?! With his 3.8 xFIP and 3.7 SIERA. I mean, the Braves defense is good and the division sucks but to rank him over a guy who’s K’ing 27% and walking under 3% of the batters he faces (xFIP and SIERA under 2.7)… Would have thought you’d have been on the more sceptical side of Hoolie, let alone this; curious to know why you’re getting so high on the Colombian?
There’s some serious hate for Wily Peralta & Drew Pomeranz. All they’ve done is provide consistency throughout the entire year. What gives?
Jeff has Dallas Keuchel more than 50 spots lower than Ubaldo Jimenez. What’s the deal with that?
Jeff also has CC Sabathia ranked 50th, 52 spots higher than Keuchel.
Nothing to add, just like to gloat as I’m sitting on SP depth of Kershaw, Greinke, Wacha, Lackey, Wilson, Samrdzjia, Kuechel, Lynn, and Cashner, in a dynasty league!
My only miss on the SP side was Hector Santiago…and hoping that swings back around…
No one cares, at all. Nice try, Rain Man.
Matt Cain has rebounded and been good lately. 3.50 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and reasonable K-rate. Surprised he has dropped so far.
Wow, I’d like to hear Jeff and Zach discuss Mat Latos. They have an 84-spot difference in his ranking.
seems like it would be a short discussion.
Jeff- “reports have him coming back this week and my projections say he’ll be good when he returns. Pitchers returning from this type of injury with his skill set generally perform xyz”
Zach- “He is injured. I don’t trust it.”
And some fantasy players (and writers!) have more tolerance for players coming back from injury than others. Depends on the rest of the roster too. If you’ve got some bench slots where you can afford to stash Latos to see how he looks before plugging him in, then he may present a good buy-low opportunity. If the rest of your roster is already injury-riddled and/or you don’t have some surplus roster spots, then Latos may not be worth the trouble to “wait and see”. And, finally, some teams trying to make up ground in the standings may have to gamble on some high variance plays to see if any pan out.
Jeff – Why no love for the Astros? Keuchel and McHugh have been top fantasy players to date. There’s a strong chance for slight regression in walk rates for keuchel, but that would still leave him as a top 100 fantasy player at all positions, let alone just at SP…
I want to see more than 2 good months from either pitcher.
jeff, the issue I have with this reply is, presumably you, zach, eno, and mike have all seen the same 2 good months recently and come to very different conclusions. The recent performance is enough for eno and zach to see mchugh as a potential number 3-4 starter in 12 team mixed leagues the rest of the way. Mike seems to have him as more of a streaming option, where based on your ranking he’s flat out not ownable. That’s a wild disparity, and the consensus is weighting all of you equally. If you had mchugh ranked the same as mike, he’d rise considerably on the list. likewise, if eno or zach were a bit lower on him he’d drop a lot on the list.
It would be great to see ‘point/counterpoint’ columns on some of these players for people who have guys ranked considerably different try to convince each other why the other person is wrong.
These rankings are fine as far as they go. But what would be interesting, as someone else noted, would be for each of the rankers to explain why they have players much higher and much lower than their colleagues.
Don’t see Hector Santiago on this list. he’s back, pitched a gem yesterday and will be a lot better than a lot of the stiffs on this list.
Wow, you guys must really expect Jaime Garcia to get injured again! That’s the only reason I can think of for why not one of you ranked him at all, one of you even going so far as to rank Joe Kelly, a guy behind Garcia on the depth chart and currently on the DL to boot!
He’s on there.
Thoughts on Marco Enstrada? It’s been pretty ugly so far, you’d think he would have slid in the rankings…
Probably won’t keep giving up 2 HR/9.
Jeff’s rankings look like they’re from 2009…
Justin Verlander ranks: #11, #57, #14, #24
I have him around #30, consensus of these is #25… would LOVE to see a discussion on him.
Also, Keuchel is too low. Come on guys. Get on the Keuch train.
Would also love to see a discussion on Arrieta. The K/BB is outstanding, and even with some LOB and HR/FB luck, his xFIP is still at 2.57. Mostly I’m intrigued because he has a new pitch (a cutter), and it’s been his best pitch so far.