Episode 131

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss Clayton Kershaw‘s no-no, Matt Holliday’s decline in power, Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta, Alfredo Simon, Danny Duffy, Kyle Gibson, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, Kevin Gausman, Yohan Pino as placeholder for Alex Meyer and Trevor May, and Anthony DeSclafani.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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• Reader Cason Jolette asked about Jason Kipnis possibly still being hurt. He basically lost the entire month of May because of a strained oblique. Since coming back off the DL, his injury indication stats show he may still be injured.

Stat: Pre-injury, Post-injury
ISO: .160, .037
HR&FB Dist: 272ft, 257ft
K% (contact issues): 14%, 18%

It would be nice to see him hit more than two extra base hits over the time frame. For owners looking to see if he gets back, there two places I would look. Go to Baseballheatmaps.com’s individual player batted ball distance page, set it to the past couple weeks and see if his distance is improving.  Also, check out his ISO graph here at FG and look to see if it starts to final trend up (not stay constant).

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Enjoys long walks at more appropriate places in his fantasy baseball league’s standings. Must love dogs. (I do like me some Diane Lane, one of the more underrated Hollywood beauties of her time, in my opinion.)

This is kind of like the personals section of your local Craigslist, minus the creep or latent possibility of disease, death or need for a restraining order. There’s also practically a 0% chance that this entry ends up as a prompt for a category on the hilarious Comedy Central program “@midnight.”

I’m tired of wins. Not just because the stat has quote-unquote screwed me out of a rotisserie league title, although I’m sure it has at one time or another. Not just because of all the good arguments for why it’s a terrible statistic for individual pitchers. Not just because I’m tired of hearing people complain about why it’s a terrible statistic for individual pitchers. I’m over that stuff, for the most part. I’m just tired. And kind of bored.

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Entering spring training, Jake Odorizzi did not have a starting rotation spot in hand. But then an elbow injury to Jeremy Hellickson opened up a spot and Odorizzi won out over Erik Bedard and Cesar Ramos. A popular sleeper choice in a presumed good situation in Tampa Bay, Odorizzi hasn’t exactly impressed, having posted a 4.72 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 14 starts. Surely the former top prospect was expected to perform better.

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Some quick bullpen notes in a pinch-hit effort this evening:

With Glen Perkins unavailable for the Twins in the bottom of the 10th due to a sore back, right-hander Casey Fien earned the nod with a 1-0 lead in the save situation. Manager Ron Gardenhire called upon Fien last week to complete a four-out save — his first of the season — but this evenings effort failed to turn out as nice. He induced a fly out to Dustin Pedroia to leadoff the inning, but surrendered back-to-back homeruns to David Ortiz and Mike Napoli to blow the save and take the loss, 2-1. Despite the blown save, usage indicates that Fien should indeed jump Jared Burton on our grid (change should be reflected below) and would seemingly get the next look if Perkins’ soreness develops into more than a one-day issue. Fien is now 1-of-2 in save chances this season with 11 holds, a 2.76 ERA (3.50 FIP) and a ~18% K%.
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If you play in a fantasy baseball league made up of family members, then there may well be no need to invest in either of these players. If, however, you play in a deep mixed league, you might want to consider the first of these entries. It’s even possible that the second one will play in one, eventually, but let’s not get that far ahead of the curve just yet.

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It’s a fishy edition of the deep league waiver wire and the first time I’m heading back to the National League after my last three posts recommended two American Leaguers. The Marlins have been aggressive about promoting prospects, which is great for fantasy leaguers in that they keep on providing us with a new shiny toy to analyze.

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Episode 130

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss the Rays’ bullpen, Andrew Heaney, the Rockies’ rotation now that Juan Nicasio has been demoted, the Red Sox’s rotation with Felix Doubront and Clay Buchholz nearing returns but two youngsters pitching well, Jake Marisnick, and more, including a couple of requests: Wilin Rosario and Albert Pujols.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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•Bronson Arroyo has been hurt for a while now.

Arroyo, 7-4 with a 4.08 ERA, said the right elbow has bothered him his past six starts but has gotten progressively worse.

“I can’t keep going out there and putting different inflammatory (medicines) in my body and beating myself down because I can just see the arm is going south,” he said. “If it would have stayed the same as it was five to six starts ago I could deal with the pain, but it continues to get more swollen. I’m waking up every day not being able to touch a ball for two to three days.”

I have noticed the problem for a while, especially with him near the top of the PAIN ranking (146 value the last time I ran it).

Bronson Arroyo says his elbow doesn’t hurt while his manager says it does. I am guessing it does. His fastball velocity is down 1.4 mph from 2013 and his Zone% is down over 10% points (56.1% to 45.6%). His current PAIN value, comparing 2013 to 2014, is at 154 (more than 100 means he has traits of an injured pitcher). I believe he is hurt and is just trying to throw through it which I don’t think will turn out well.

His velocity is down 2 mph and has been trending even lower. He hasn’t been able to throw strikes (Zone% down from 56% to 48%).

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Despite extremely low ownership rates (5% Yahoo, 3.5% ESPN, 14% CBS), Luis Valbuena has performed well enough so far this season to make himself mixed-league relevant. The 28-year-old currently owns a .289/.390/.461 slash line through 61 games, and is showing no signs of slowing down. He’s fantasy-eligible at both second base and third base, yet fantasy owners would rather own, for example, Kelly Johnson (24% Yahoo, 9% ESPN, 19% CBS), who is hitting .226/.299/.398 by comparison.

Maybe this is a product of the fact that Valbuena has never been good before. After all, even with his 210 plate-appearance sample from this season, he’s still just a .230/.313/.365 career hitter, with 33 homers and five steals in 1,710 PA. That doesn’t sound like a fantasy-relevant player to me. So what’s changed, and how sustainable is it?

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