And on we go with my updated Pod’s Picks, comparing my rank versus the other three RotoGraphers. We’re now up to the third basemen, of which the consensus rankings published two weeks ago can be found here. I’ll generally only consider those third basemen that I ranked within the top 20 for the bullish category and those the rest of the crew ranked in the top 20 for the bearish category.
• Michael Wacha is headed to the DL with a “stress reaction in his right shoulder”. You haven’t heard of the injury before? Other people haven’t either.
There is also no timetable for Garcia’s return, though he’ll begin a rehab program immediately. Yet it is Wacha’s injury that comes with more questions since it is not commonly found in Major League pitchers. The injury does not require surgery, and the MRI did not reveal a fracture in the bone. But having Wacha continue to pitch could have led to one.
….
D-backs pitcher Brandon McCarthy is one possible comparison for the Cardinals to use in determining how to move forward this injury. McCarthy has had recurring stress reactions in his pitching shoulder, and those have cost him several starts over several seasons.
So what we know right now he is “shut down for at least a few weeks”. OK, at least 3-4 weeks with no pitching. Another month to get back up to speed. I think we are looking at a late August return with no setbacks. In 2011, McCarthy missed 81 days with his stress fracture and various 30 day stints around it. Josh McKinney missed 89 days last season with the same injury. Depending on how things shake out, Wacha may done for the season.
Even after losing some time to injury, Jason Kipnis has managed 200+ plate appearances this year, and his fantasy line has not matched his work in the past so far. It’s a little too far into the season to just poo-poo it away with mentions of small sample size. But, jump into the numbers, and it looks like issues of sample and perspective are hiding the fact that he’s probably still a top-half second baseman in any league.
When I compiled this month’s second base tier rankings, one concern I had was whether I ranked Ben Zobrist too low. I placed him at the bottom of the third tier, 14th overall — was this an overreaction to a slow start? After all, Zobrist was the No. 6 fantasy second baseman in 2012.
Last year, he slipped to No. 11, but in placing him 14th in this month’s rankings, I was essentially admitting that the 33-year-old Zobrist is on the decline, and that I don’t see his 2013 as an aberration. The further we get into 2014, the more confident I am that I wasn’t selling Zobrist short.
Today we continue to move along with my updated Pod’s Picks, comparing my rank versus the other three RotoGraphers. We’re now up to the shortstops, of which the consensus rankings published two weeks ago can be found here. I’ll generally only consider those shortstops that I ranked within the top 20 for the bullish category and those the rest of the crew ranked in the top 20 for the bearish category.
Episode 132
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Special guest Fred Zinkie of MLB.com joins Nicholas Minnix to discuss Mark Melancon, the Angels’ mess in the bullpen as well as their ditching of Raul Ibanez, Alex Wood into the rotation, the Cardinals’ rotation with multiple injuries and an opportunity for Carlos Martinez, other starting pitchers with great talent but not yet a clearly defined role, a Dan Straily checkup, Joe Panik, the Royals’ 3B situation, Travis d’Arnaud, Josh Harrison, injuries to important position players such as Brett Lawrie, and more.
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.
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As a Giants fan, I can relate to what Tigers fans and fantasy owners of Justin Verlander must be feeling right now. One day, Tim Lincecum was the best pitcher on the planet, then he wasn’t quite as good, and then he was awful. One day, Matt Cain was really good at throwing baseballs, and then suddenly he wasn’t. They weren’t even that old, either. They still aren’t!
Lincecum posted a 2.81 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 26.9 percent strikeout rate, and 22.4 WAR from 2008-11 while winning two Cy Young awards and a World Series ring. Since showing up for the 2012 season, Lincecum has put up a 4.77 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 22.9 percent strikeout rate, and just 2.6 WAR over 79 starts. The nearly one run difference in his ERA and FIP over the last two-plus seasons has provided some reason for optimism, but at a certain point we’re going to have to accept that he just gives up more runs than his peripherals suggest he ought to.
From 2005-12, Cain went 85-78 with a 3.27 ERA and 3.65 FIP, prompting the Giants to give him a 6-year, $127.5 million extension during the spring of 2012. Now, Cain’s xFIP during that span was 4.19 due to what appeared to be an unsustainable 6.8 percent HR/FB ratio. Since the start of last season, his HR/FB ratio is 11.9 percent, which is the main culprit for his 4.14 ERA and 4.21 FIP. His xFIP has actually gone down to 3.98. Perhaps with Cain, fly-ball luck eventually ran out and he became the mediocre pitcher his peripherals always suggested he was. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher, he’s always been able to maintain a low BABIP (.264 from 2005-12 and .257 in 2013-14).
Verlander showed signs of decline last season, but he appeared to right the ship down the stretch and in the postseason. He’s in year two of a 7-year, $180 million deal—the extension replaced the final two years of his previous deal, so it can also be seen as a 5-year deal that starts next season—and the Tigers have to be feeling buyer’s remorse already.
After posting 6-8 WAR seasons from 2009-12, he slipped to 5.2 WAR last year. This season, he’s posted a 4.98 ERA over 15 starts with a strikeout rate of just 15.8 percent. After averaging 95 mph on the heater in 2011, his fastball velocity has slipped down to an average of 92.6 mph.
Verlander is 31 years old with a lot of mileage on his elbow ligaments. Lincecum just turned 30, he’s undersized, and his velocity began declining in 2009 and never came back. Cain will be 30 in October, and while his velocity hasn’t changed much since 2010, he just doesn’t look like the same guy anymore.
Do former aces who begin to decline ever get it back? Or once it starts to go does it just keep on going?
It isn’t just Verlander, Cain, and Lincecum in the midst of nightmare declines. Cliff Lee, who is owed $25 million this year and next with a $27.5 million option for 2016, has been on the shelf for a month with an elbow problem. He pitched well before being sidelined, but he’ll turn 36 in August. CC Sabathia will be 34 in July and his ERA since the beginning of last season is 4.87. Even the maniacally hard-working Roy Halladay eventually broke down. As dominant as Clayton Kershaw has been, there will come a day for his inevitable decline and fall.
It isn’t just pitchers like Verlander, Cain, and Sabathia having disappointing seasons. In-their-prime position players like Evan Longoria and Buster Posey have let their fantasy owners down, too. It’s one thing for pitchers with a lot of wear and tear to begin to break down, but how do you explain 27-28 year old star positional talents letting you down? Pitchers fall apart, but young hitters shouldn’t being to slip like this, right? Has the diminutive Dustin Pedroia started his decline phase? Why does Robinson Cano have only four home runs and a .109 ISO? When will the Mariners want a do-over on that contract?
There’s just so much we don’t know. As Philip Roth wrote in The Human Stain, “What we know is that, in an unclichéd way, nobody knows anything. You can’t know anything. The things you know you don’t know…All that we don’t know is astonishing. Even more astonishing is what passes as knowing.”
With the knowledge that we know we know nothing, the question is: when is the right time to cut your losses as a fantasy owner? And, what good does it do to cut your losses if you have to sell at the bottom of the market anyway? You might as well hold on, hoping against all odds that Lincecum’s ERA starts to match his peripherals, that Cain’s fly balls start dying on the warning track again, that Verlander and Sabathia turn back the clock or learn to get hitters out with diminished velocity, that Longoria and Posey begin to match their track records, that Lee’s elbow returns to health, and that Cano and Pedroia aren’t yet in the decline phase.
All things are prone to decay and decline, yet it doesn’t truly hit home until it happens to you. Jim Cavan wrote:
Sports, at their core, are pastimes, our respite from the rancid rancor of politics and the monotony of daily life. It’s an outlet—social, emotional and psychological—through which we exercise our innate competitiveness in an arena that isn’t nearly as rancorous as Washington or as frustratingly mundane as our living rooms are. Watching the Knicks, for me, is a chance to frolic in a [bleeped]-up alternate universe where nothing makes sense. Where nothing is supposed to make sense.
I never thought Lincecum or Cain would fall this far, at least not this quickly. But here we are, and even though it doesn’t make much sense, their declines are at least more true to life than those awesome championship parades.
I’ve wanted to write about Steven Okert for quite some time now. There’s a strange little line I walk writing about prospects from a fantasy perspective. Ostensibly, I should write about prospects who are likely to make an impact in fantasy baseball in the relatively near-future seeing as, well, that’s my job. Why would I write about a relief pitcher in High-A?
But now, dear reader, the stars have aligned in such a way that I can finally write my long-awaited article about Steven Okert. He’s in the news for his standout performance in the clumsily named California-Carolina League All-Star Game (I recommend clicking that link if only to see the high level of swagger Okert possesses while rocking his replica championship belt), but the internet at large seemingly has no idea who he is. Seriously, do a Google search and see what you can learn about the kid. Spoiler alert: It’s not much. So there’s Solid Reason No. 1 for me to write about Steven Okert.
We do have leaderboards for this sort of thing, but the problem is that if you’re looking at horizontal movement, PITCHf/x data for lefties and righties is very different. For example, the average four-seam fastball for a lefty goes 91 mph, but breaks +5.5 inches. The average four-seam fastball for a righty goes 92.2 mph and breaks -4.2 inches. So if you sorted one way or the other for horizontal fastball movement, you would just be getting the best lefties and righties.
So I did the work for you. Voila, the straightest fastballs in the game. It may be the least important facet of a fastball, behind location and velocity, but it’s still a facet we don’t talk about much.
A few notes out of the bullpens on Thursday:
-The debacle that is the backend of the Angels bullpen reared its ugly head once again this afternoon in Cleveland. Skipper Mike Scioscia went with setup man Joe Smith in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game on the road, presumably leaving right-hander Ernesto Frieri to work the next frame should the Angels get on the board in their half of the tenth. The Angels indeed plated two in the top of the tenth, but Scioscia went with rookie Cam Bedrosian in the save situation instead of closer Ernesto Frieri. Bedrosian proceeded to surrender two free passes and a hit before being hooked in favor of Ernesto Frieri with one out and the bases juiced. Frieri induced a flyout to short left, then yielded a game-winning grand slam to Nick Swisher to blow his third save of the season.
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