Stick A Fork In Ben Zobrist
When I compiled this month’s second base tier rankings, one concern I had was whether I ranked Ben Zobrist too low. I placed him at the bottom of the third tier, 14th overall — was this an overreaction to a slow start? After all, Zobrist was the No. 6 fantasy second baseman in 2012.
Last year, he slipped to No. 11, but in placing him 14th in this month’s rankings, I was essentially admitting that the 33-year-old Zobrist is on the decline, and that I don’t see his 2013 as an aberration. The further we get into 2014, the more confident I am that I wasn’t selling Zobrist short.
Over the last 30 days, Zobrist is the No. 36 fantasy second baseman. By comparison, Donnie Murphy had just 38 plate appearances in that same span of time, hit .194, and provided more value than Zobrist, sitting at No. 33. That’s how bad things have gotten for Zobrist.
On the season, he’s now the No. 24 second baseman, behind the likes of Mike Aviles, Omar Infante, Gordon Beckham and DJ LeMahieu. There are many reasons for this, and I’ll try to touch on all the major factors that contribute to Zobrist’s drastically decreasing fantasy value.
One significant factor is his baserunning. He has one successful stolen-base attempt in the last eight weeks. One. He missed a couple weeks in there with a thumb injury, but still. Stealing bases is just not an impactful part of his game anymore. That’s a considerable amount of lost value from a guy who used to be money in the bank for 15 steals.
The other big problem with Zobrist is that his power decline from last season has continued. Coming into the year, it wasn’t unreasonable to point at 2010, when Zobrist had an isolated power of .115 in a season sandwiched between four years of plus-.200 ISO, and make the argument that 2013’s .127 ISO was another such single-season aberration. His .122 ISO this season indicates otherwise.
His batted-ball profile isn’t offering much promise either. His 17.1% line-drive rate is his worst since 2008. His 47.2% ground-ball rate is his highest since his rookie year, back in 2006. His infield fly-ball rate is a career-worst at 14.1%. I can’t find anything to be optimistic about. He’s even legging out infield hits at a career-worst rate (5.3%).
Another major issue is the fact that Tampa’s offense is terrible. They’re currently ranked 27th in MLB in runs scored, with just 279 through 76 games (3.67 runs per game). For Zobrist, a player whose power is in decline, the effect has been crippling, as he has just 15 RBI through 62 games so far. He’s driven in at least 70 runs in each of the last five seasons, but this year it’s questionable whether he’ll reach 50 — both ZiPS and Steamer predict he’ll fall short.
The fact that he’s eligible at 2B, SS and OF in many formats gives Zobrist enough utility to still be worth owning in the majority of leagues, but if you’re still using him as a regular, I’d advise you to seek an upgrade. He’s still started in 64% of Yahoo leagues and 78% of CBS leagues. It’s time to cut those numbers in half.
Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.
Think A scooter+Brad miller platoon would be a good zobrist replacement plan
They are both lefties and have hit LHP terribly this year, so not if you mean platoon in a traditional sense (although Miller hit LHP fine last year).
But since they are not on the same MLB team, they can be used in a sort of platoon on a fantasy team.
Their real teams would presumably usually not be facing lefties on the same night, so not too big a deal for fantasy purposes.
I understand this point, but even in a fantasy platoon I would rather have one player superior against righties and one superior against lefties so the choice each time would be clear. They might not often both face lefties on the same night, but they both will often face righties on the same night. By having 2 players with similar platoon splits, it makes it a crapshoot on the nights when they are both facing pitchers with the same handedness, which kind of defeats the purpose of the platoon in my mind. I suppose you could look at individual matchups, but with 2 players with as few career PAs as Miller and Gennett, they are not likely to have a meaningful history facing many pitchers.
How is the choice any clearer if both of your players have the platoon advantage one a given day?
Completely legit point, but I would still think both players facing a RHP happens more often than both players having the platoon advantage.
Too lazy to find it, but this exact question (whether you want the opposite sides of a platoon or two guys on the same side) was covered in a RotoGraphs piece earlier this year. If I recall, the answer was two lefties because 1) they were less likely to have both guys facing the wrong side of the platoon split on the same day, and 2) lefties typically have larger platoon splits so you aren’t overpaying for the half of the platoon you aren’t using. Am probably oversimplifying a lot.
Emcee its pretty clear you have no idea how to correctly utilize a fantasy platoon.
cs3, I presented my opinion and personal strategy, others presented a different opinion and strategy and it was a constructive conversation. I felt like I learned something, i.e. that lefties have a bigger platoon split and therefore a lefty/lefty platoon could work. I may adjust my thinking in the future. Thanks for being a dick though and adding nothing.
The problem is really that your argument doesn’t make much sense. What’s important is the overall level of production which is clearly higher with two hitters who perform well against righties (all other things being equal). The fact that you often have to make a close decision isn’t really an argument against this strategy – it justs suggests you need to get used to the fact that sometimes the guy you have on the bench will go 4 for 5 with a homer while your guy is hopeless.
I drafted this turkey and after 3 weeks I had seen enough, his name recognition held and I was able to trade him for Ryu, happy then and still happy now.
Would you trade Zobrist for Aaron Hill? I feel TB may trade Zobrist and he’ll perk up with a change of scenery or Hill will ride along the ARI 2nd half surge.
He’s been a bit better lately:
April: .302/.390/.434 .319 BABIP; 10.3% HR/FB
May: .161/.250/.214 .191 BABIP; 0.0% HR/FB
June: .244/.314/.410 .288 BABIP; 8.0% HR/FB
His run total still looks about right. The lack of RBIs can be explained by a terrible sequencing of his hits:
Bases empty: .284/.361/.385 .323 BABIP
Men on base: .196/.290/.359 .205 BABIP
Men in scoring: .102/.214/.203 .104 BABIP
He’s clearly more valuable in OBP leagues. The stolen bases are probably gone for good but 8-10 more HR with above average R+RBI for a MI is not unreasonable to expect.
I would love to stick my fork in Ben Zobrist WAIT NEVERMIND
The projections didn’t see this coming.
In 2012 he got off to an even worse start. Then: Laser Show!
I own him in an 18-team league as my starting SS. Going to stick with him for the long haul. He may not be the 2012 version of Ben Zobrist, but he’s better than the 2013 edition and should be fine as time rolls on. Working against him is that he plays in Tampa – but there’s a very good chance he’s wearing another uniform before the end of July. Rather than sticking a fork in him, why not think about buying low? He’s a very safe & skilled player with upside for power and speed… these don’t exactly grow on trees.
Jared – moxyball.com
Drop Zobrist in a 6X6 OBP league for Neil Walker coming off DL?
R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP
I would.
8 for 26 with with 2 doubles, 2 triples, 1 homer, 4 runs and 3 RBI since this was written. His ISO is up to .145 in less than a week. Perhaps Ben is not done after all.
I’ve been keeping an eye on him too. He’s starting to really see the ball. But he’s still not gonna steal or hit for much power on a bad team.
I have Kipnis and Zobrist is on the wire, but I just don’t think Zobrist’s upside is worth it.
I see Zobrists current environment as an upside. The Rays are playing better, which should impact his runs and rbi. He’s batting second, behind Kiermaier, who bats ninth and has a great OBP and a lot of speed, and Jennings, who has come on strong as of late. There should be more RBI opportunities now than when Molina or Escobar batted 9th.
If the Rays turn it around, Zobrist will be an integral part of that, so his numbers numbers will have improved. If they don’t, he’ll be in hot demand at the trade deadline, and being out of the Trop and on a better team, he should see his numbers improve.
I’m not done with Ben.
This post is looking worse by the day
Swing and a miss, Scott.
Wow! I am so glad I didn’t stick a fork in Zobrist. It’s time for a retraction!
4 homers. 18 RBI. 16 runs. 4 SB and a 170 wRC+. He hit a homerun tonight, so his ISO should be up to around 200 on this one month stretch as well.
Agreed
I dropped Zobrist and added Aybar.
*coughs* Asshole *coughs*
Also
His wife is a beautiful and talented woman.
http://www.musicya.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Julianna-Zobrist-Say-It-Now-EP.jpg
Thanks for ruining my life Scott.
ANOTHER 4 HIT GAME!
I’m sure glad I dropped this bum so I could pick up Yangervis Solarte.
3 more hits for zobrist, one of my best players lately…
Maybe we should stick a fork in Scott.