In need of another catcher? Rummaging through the discount bin in the hopes of finding an undervalued arm? That’s funny — we’re looking at the same things this week in another edition of the deep league waiver wire.
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Last year, I polled you wonderful readers asking which group of pitchers you expected to perform better during the post-All Star Break period. The two groups were composed of the pitchers whose ERAs were most disparate from their respective SIERA marks. While a one year sample wasn’t going to prove anything, I was curious what you all thought and what would actually happen. Do I put too much faith in SIERA? If the SIERA beaters from the first half still significantly outperformed the underperformers, then perhaps I either have to rethink the way I evaluate pitchers or those specific pitchers were doing something not being captured by the metric.
It’s been one hell of a strange season for Kolten Wong. He’s hit a couple of very high peaks and a couple of equally low valleys; as such, it’s quite difficult to judge his body of work on the season thus far, as his .242/.299/.392 slash line isn’t really representative of how he’s played at any point this year.
I was high on Wong coming into this season, but he scuffled badly in April. He hit just .221/.264/.265 in 76 plate appearances, and found himself back in Triple-A before the month’s end. The 23-year-old got his game back on track in Memphis, hitting a robust .360/.400/.533 with three homers and six steals in 18 games. While he was gone, Mark Ellis fought a losing battle with the Mendoza line, hitting .190 as the Cards’ starting second baseman.
I have been a fairly regular advocate of targeting injured players in keeper and dynasty leagues. To a team competing, they are no better than a prospect, but to a team building for the future, they are far more likely to pan out.
A few weeks ago, Prince Fielder was cut in the original ottoneu league and re-signed for $24. He is a free agent in the FanGraphs ottoneu Experts League. And I am in the midst of trade talks around him in a non-ottoneu dynasty league. And I am really not sure what to make of the Ranger 1B.
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I asked twitter what I should write about, and the requests were too many to get to. So I thought I’d get to as many as I could, and the only grouping I could find was starting pitching. So let’s take a look at these guys without spending three thousand words on them! I’ll try to be succinct.
(Okay, I lied, I picked the pitchers because I love pitchers.)
Episode 141
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! As they slide into the All-Star break, Jason Collette and Nicholas Minnix talk fantasy All-Stars, MVPs, and ROYs by league. Do not be afraid to share your dissenting opinions!
We also discuss a little ROS fantasy team evaluation, a few players coming back from injury, a few – especially Masahiro Tanaka and what to do with him – going out with injury, Shane Greene, the Minnesota Twins’ evolving rotation, and the Tampa Bay Rays’ infield.
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.
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Some quick notes from today’s bullpen action:
-The Reds ran Aroldis Chapman to the mound on each of the four previous days, leaving Jonathan Broxton to man the ninth-inning in a save situation with a one-run lead. Broxton surrendered a leadoff longball to All-World Andrew McCutchen, his second of the game, resulting in the right-hander’s fourth blown save on the season. He is now 6-of-10 in save chances and his ERA sits at 1.19, which is still far off from what his xFIP (4.30) suggests he should be posting. More rough outings could be on the horizon for the Reds’ set-up man. Broxton remains to be an emergency only reliever to own, with the exception of hold leagues, deep standard leagues and daily leagues when streaming.
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Like the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays, my fantasy baseball team is endlessly waiting for Buster Posey and Evan Longoria to be Buster Posey and Evan Longoria again. We’re past the half-way point in the season, so perhaps we’ll all have to wait until next year, at which point I’ll fire myself as the general manager of my fantasy baseball team.
I can’t separate fantasy baseball from, like, who I would want on a real baseball team I was in charge of, and I don’t really care about speed. However, in fantasy baseball, things like stolen bases matter. I have nothing against the stolen base or speed in general (full disclosure: I’m fast), but I just wouldn’t really want a guy like Ben Revere playing center field for my favorite team. He’s fast, but he doesn’t walk, hit for power, or get on base at an above-average clip. It’s fun to try to get a time on a fast guy down the line or on a stolen base attempt on your stop watch. One of the joys of watching the Giants over the past few seasons has been the speed of Angel Pagan when he’s in the lineup, which is becoming increasingly less of a common occurrence these days. Unlike Revere, Pagan has some slug to his game in addition to plus-plus speed.
If you look at his numbers, Kris Bryant looks ready for the majors. He hit 22 homers in just 68 games in Double-A before earning a promotion to Triple-A, where he hasn’t slowed down a bit, smashing eight more homers in 22 games. Between the two levels, he now owns an absurd .348/.443/.700 slash, with 30 home runs and 11 steals…in just 90 games.
If you simply look at him on a baseball field, Kris Bryant looks ready for the majors. At 6’5″, 215 pounds, the 22-year-old stands out from his peers on the diamond. He’s faster than it seems like he should be. He’s remarkably agile. Everything he does looks smooth. He’s one of those guys who would probably excel at any sport. He makes it all look easy.
Bryce Harper’s production has not be at high level since he has returned from the disabled list. Some people, including his manager, are saying his timing is off. In my opinion, I think his left thumb is not yet 100% for several reasons which is causing his timing issues.
In case someone has not been following the train wreck, here are Harper’s stats before and after the injury:
Before: .289/.352/.422, 23% K%
After: .129/.250/.161, 35% K%
The after is only 37 PA, but the results are abysmal.
To look a little deeper into Harper’s production, here is his batted ball placement before and after the injury (embiggen).
He has yet to hit one ball to the outfield’s right side after the injury. Historically, 81% of his home runs have been to center (30%) or right (51%) field. Since he is hitting nothing to the right side, I expect no substantial power from him.
This situation reminds me of left-handed David Ortiz from a few years back. He hit the ball weakly to left field after a wrist injury and then slowly began to pull the ball with authority to right field as he got healthy. For a sign Harper is turning it around, look for him to start hitting to right field consistently.
The second key factor telling me the thumb still bothers him is he acts like it does. Players with injuries will physically show signs the body part bothers them. Here is Harper after a foul ball from Wednesday night.
He concentrates on and re-grips with the injured thumb. I went back a looked at him plate appearances before the injury and he never did anything close to the re-grip. If a Harper owner wants to know if he is healthy, watch a couple of games and see if favors the thumb in any way.
Bryce Harper’s thumb is probably not 100% yet and it is behind his offensive struggles since returning from the DL. Two items can be tracked to see if he is turning his season around. First, look to see if he is beginning to pull the ball with some power. Second, watch some of his at bats and see if he favors the thumb in any way.
