Draft season is getting in full swing so let’s start going around the field. Below are the first run of my first base rankings, split into tiers and including my projections for the classic categories. But also, let’s be real; we barely know each other and I doubt you’ll be blindly trusting my numbers. However, they form the basis of the dollar values that I base my ranks on, so I might as well include them.

Given a (proper) level of projection hesitancy, I’ll also be comparing my numbers to some of the reputable projection systems that you know and love, in spots where our gaps of disagreement are larger.  Not as a critique of them, mind you, but just to add context. But really, I think this is just the most efficient way to give everyone plenty of ammunition to roast me with later. Read the rest of this entry »

There are a myriad of differences between valuing players and general drafting strategy for a 15-team (or deeper) league versus a 12-team (or shallower) league but I believe the starkest ones lie at reliever. Since this makes doing ‘one-size fits all” rankings particularly difficult, here are a few notes about how I approached them. Read the rest of this entry »

After moving from the happy-fun ball era to the great deadening of 2021, it’s hard to know how bouncy the ball will be in 2022. Particularly after MLB admitted to using two different kinds of balls in 2021 due to production delays. But I’d bet the old, fun times aren’t coming back and consequentially don’t want to depend on finding power just laying around in the back part of drafts.

With that in mind, and using a 200 ADP in recent NFBC drafts as our cutoff, let’s look at a few players who could be valuable wells of power in 2022. Here are a few common terms:

Barrel% (from BaseballSavant): “to be Barrelled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands.”

Air% (average EV): The average exit velocity balls hit in the air (fly balls + line drives)

Air% (100+ mph): Percentage of balls hit in the air with a minimum exit velocity of 100 mph.

Barrel% (100+ mph): Percentage of barrels with a minimum exit velocity of 100 mph. Not all barrels are created equal and while there are many great ways to chop them up, I’m not as bright as Alex so I also check in on this simple distinction.

Read the rest of this entry »

The age of the reliever is going to continue in 2022, if early ADP is any indication, with much of the position gaining steam as we move deeper into the offseason. And given how diluted the position continues to be as saves get less concentrated by each individual, is it that surprising?

Whether for saves now, or rare-earth metals in a dystopian future, it’ll usually behoove you to adjust your expectations about what people are willing to do when it comes to acquiring scarce resources.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the first run of my top-150 starting pitcher rankings for 2022. I create these by turning my personal projections into dollar values and using those, along with non-projection factors, to rank accordingly.

These will change, as my projections do, over the course of the offseason, with many being driven by adjustments in playing time projections more so than changes in talent rates. ADP information is taken from NFBC, previous values are calculated with FanGraphs auction calculator. Read the rest of this entry »

There is more to pitching in fantasy than just strikeouts but ratios and wins can be fickle little elves from season to season, mischievously relying on more things beyond a pitcher’s control. The whiffs, however, tend to be more predictable year-to-year. Or, at least, it’s easier to make more direct connections between changing results and changing stuff.

Strikeout rates also start to stabilize quickly, at around 60 batters faced. Note that they only start to stabilize at that point, so while the sample may start being meaningful, it becomes much more so with more batters faced. But the comparatively lower threshold for strikeouts makes it more possible to compare them with 2020’s mini-season.

Here are the starting pitchers in 2021 (min 75 IP) that saw at least a two-point increase in their strikeout rate compared to 2020.

Read the rest of this entry »

As baseball history keeps telling us, a pitcher’s ultimate success often starts with the heater, providing a base of core strength for their pitch-mix body on which the glamor muscles of the breaking stuff can better be supported.

With that in mind, let’s look at the best fastballs from starters in 2022 according to Run-Value (per 100 pitches) before looking at three possible draft-day bargains. While Run Value is by no means the end-all measurement of overall quality, (nor necessarily predictive), it does give us a solid snapshot of the overall results that a pitch returned while sending up flares for where further investigation might be warranted.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s do some experimenting. Let’s imagine you drafted a team using only one statistic. What style of baseball are you? Do you love the hitters with speed, bat control, and an eye for tactics? Or, are you more of the home run or strikeout kind of fan? Why can’t you be both, you ask? Well because it’s an experiment and you have to choose one or the other. So…go ahead. Which do you choose? The K% Kings or the Barrel Brothers?

Read the rest of this entry »

Last time on “Steamer Says”, we turned the first Steamer projections of 2022 into values using the FanGraphs auction calculator to see how they compared to the ranks available in the current NFBC draft room. Using those differences as a guide, I took a look at four hitters that Steamer had valued higher and dug deeper to see if we should agree.

We also talked about my belief that failing to pay attention to those ranks is to throw away a valuable tool. While site ranks shouldn’t necessarily inform your valuations of players, they will often inform the decisions of some of your opponents. Whether conscious or unconscious, bias can be a powerful force and I’ll take any and all advantages I can find when drafting.

Read the rest of this entry »

With NFBC unofficially ushering in the start of the 2022 draft season last week, I think now is a good time to check in on a key piece of information your chosen fantasy platform provides. Site ranks, baby.

Uh-oh…Noob alert, am I right? I mean, how could a serious fantasy player pay attention to something so trite as site ranks? What am I going to do next; say something insane like ADP is important? Well, yes. But not today because we don’t yet have a significant sample. So, we’ll start by focusing on the ranks that sites include in their draft rooms and why paying attention to them should help inform your decisions. Read the rest of this entry »