We collectively scratched our heads when the Diamondbacks traded top prospect Trevor Bauer to the Indians after the 2012 season. But after he posted a suspect 4.15 ERA at Triple-A with the Tribe and then a 5.29 ERA over four starts with the Major League club, we thought that perhaps the team didn’t act as silly as we originally thought. A turnaround at Triple-A resulted in his second chance with the big club, but a 4.25 ERA remains a mild disappointment.

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Two pitchers who have changed scenery in the past four months and have rediscovered better versions of themselves with the relocation. Either of them could have a shelf life that lasts into the season’s final weeks. The first is pretty much entirely in control of that possibility, for fantasy baseball owners. The second’s rotation spot may be in jeopardy, but if he survives the week, then you might want to take a look.

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It’s been a disappointing season for Jake Peavy, as he posted a 4.72 ERA with the Red Sox and although meaningless on its own, sported a rather hilarious 1-9 record. And it’s not even like he was simply suffering from poor fortune. His 4.33 xFIP was his worst mark since his first full season in 2003, as his strikeout rate was down and walk rate up. It became acceptable to drop him in shallow mixed leagues. But on Saturday, the Giants acquired the right-hander, resulting in Peavy’s return to the National League. Let’s find out if that is going to be enough to put him back on mixed league radars.

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This year doesn’t look like a promising one for the promotion of catching prospects, at least those who could make a positive impression in fantasy baseball leagues. The San Diego Padres’ Austin Hedges may prove to be the exception to make his debut. Andrew Susac could allow the San Francisco Giants move Buster Posey to first base in September if circumstances called for it. Christian Bethancourt may be back with the Atlanta Braves to grab some pine. The Boston Red Sox may even want to give Blake Swihart a taste of The Show in September. But these youngsters probably aren’t ready for the bigs.

I decided to hold off on August catcher tiers until after the non-waiver trade deadline. There shouldn’t be much movement at this position, but a few extra days in the potential aftermath can’t hurt.

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As it’s the end of July, we might as well take a look at two players who have had big months and recently drawn the eye of deep-league fantasy owners. As usual, these recommendations are best reserved for owners in mono leagues.
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Yesterday, I used Jeff Zimmerman’s recently published xBABIP table to identify five trade targets, with the underlying assumption that they have suffered from poor BABIP fortune, which is likely to reverse over the final two months of the season. Today, I will check in on some hitters whose BABIPs are far above their xBABIP marks and could be in for quite the decline over the rest of the season. As such, they are perhaps strong sell candidates.

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Not much injury news over the weekend, sorry.

• A reader asked if Chris Davis may be injured. The short answer for those with little time, probably. Now here is the long answer.

The concern for Davis centers on his low .199 AVG and 17 home runs. He spent spent 15 days on the DL early in the season for a strained abdomen. No other reported news. Before the injury he hit .250/.372/.382. Since returning, he has mainly  seen a huge drop in his AVG, .183/.288/.394. Looking through my injury indicators, his ISO is down from .240 career average to .192. His Contact% is down for 69% to 67%. These values put his HURT value at 155 which is one of the top values among the league regulars. So, yes his is probably still hurt.

The other issue he is dealing with is the shift. In 2013, he had a .425 BABIP with no shift on and a .302 with the shift employed for a difference of .123. So far this season, he is hitting .375 without the shift on and .236 with a shift for a difference of .141. The shift related decline was almost the same overall for each season. This season he is not hitting the ball as hard (probably from the injury), so both BABIP values are down. I would look at Davis as a possible buy low candidate for next season, but expect the batting average to stay low.

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As you read this, I’m knee deep in moving, with a toddler, a pregnant wife, and an intense case of bronchitis. I’m not asking for sympathy!

Until now, Matt Shoemaker has shown us that he’s got a legit curve, splitter, slider combination, but maybe an iffy fastball. He’s not asking your sympathy!

But we all find a way to make due, like I’m writing this as I sweat in bed and the family is taking a load to the new house without me. And it looks like Shoemaker has found a way to make the package work — by throwing the fastball just about as much as any of his other pitches.

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I’ve been a believer in Brian Dozier for quite some time now. Since his breakout around the midway point of last season, Dozier has consistently been one of the most valuable second basemen in fantasy. This year, things only got better, as Dozier started taking more walks and showing much-increased aggressiveness on the basepaths. For a full calendar year, Dozier was an elite fantasy option and five-category contributor, showing no signs of slowing down.

Then July arrived and Dozier came crashing down to earth, with a slash of just .213/.232/.404. The power has still been there, but little else has. There are lots of things to be worried about regarding his performance in July, but none moreso than the figures below:

• April – 19 BB, 26 K
• May – 13 BB, 18 K
• June – 19 BB, 21 K
• July – 1 BB, 21 K

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I own Max Scherzer in three leagues right now. Three different formats, three different sets of rules, and three different places in the standings. And I am working on trading him in not one, but two.

The problem is trying to find the right value. And valuing a guy like Scherzer is not easy.

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